BENGALURU – The Indian National Congress is set to win a hotly contested election in Karnataka with a comfortable majority, defeating Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the only southern Indian state where it rules.

The Congress won 135 out of 224 constituencies, which analysts are calling a sweep for a state that otherwise sees close battles. With this clear majority, it can form a government without negotiating an alliance with regional party Janata Dal (Secular), which was the third-largest winner with 19 seats.

The BJP won 66 seats, down from 104 in the last election.

Karnataka’s result is considered a bellwether for other state elections later in 2023 in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Telangana.

Analysts also believe it will influence all parties’ strategies in the lead-up to the national polls in 2024 when Mr Modi’s government will seek a third term. 

Karnataka’s Congress state chief D.K. Shivakumar, 60, teared up when he spoke to reporters, saying he had “promised (Congress’ top leader and former party president) Sonia Gandhi that I will deliver Karnataka and I have”.

He thanked the people of Karnataka for “a big victory”. 

During campaigning, Mr Shivakumar often described the Congress campaign as one strategically focused on “local leaders and real issues”. 

Senior Congress member Rahul Gandhi told reporters in New Delhi that “with our triumph in Karnataka, the Congress has shut down hate politics and started the politics of love”. 

Analysts told The Sunday Times that the elements that went in the Congress’ favour were its focused campaign on battling unemployment, farmers’ indebtedness and inflation; its leaders’ speeches on local issues in each constituency; and the promise to rein in religious polarisation and the ensuing violence. 

The party has promised to pass five major schemes in its very first assembly session, which would dole out 2,000 rupees (S$33) a month to every woman head of the household; free bus travel for all women across Karnataka; 3,000 rupees a month for unemployed graduates and 1,500 rupees a month for unemployed diploma holders; free electricity (200 units per month per household); and free rice (10kg per person per month for families below the poverty line). 

“It was Congress’ election to lose because there was a public mood for change too,” said political analyst Chandan Gowda.

The BJP has been hobbled by graft allegations against several of its legislators.

The party’s state unit suffered factional infighting, and campaigned without some of its senior local leaders like former chief minister B.S. Yeddyurappa, who has retired, and others who quit when they were not allowed to contest. 

Much of the campaigning was done by the BJP’s national leaders. To give a boost to the state unit, Mr Modi set out from New Delhi in the first week of May to hold rallies in 16 constituencies across Karnataka. The party lost 14 of them. 

Outgoing chief minister Basavaraj Bommai conceded defeat by noon on Saturday, saying he “will take responsibility for this debacle”. 

“The BJP’s electoral performance was not up to the mark, despite the best efforts of everyone from Prime Minister Modi to party cadre. We will find out all the reasons and strengthen the party once again for Parliament elections,” he added. 

The BJP’s loss means the party will no longer be in power in any of the five southern Indian states.

Karnataka was the only state in the south where the BJP had managed to form a government on its own. (An alliance which includes the BJP is in power in the Union Territory of Puducherry.)

In the Congress office in Bengaluru, the mood was upbeat. Members rejoiced by garlanding winning candidates and dancing to hit tunes from the latest Kannada blockbuster movies Kantara and KGF. 

The Congress will pick a chief minister by Sunday evening.

Among the top two contenders is Mr Shivakumar, primary strategist in this election and one of the Congress’ richest leaders from the dominant land-owning community of Vokkaligas.

In 2019, he was jailed on charges of money laundering and income tax evasion for 50 days till he got bail.

He claims the “baseless and politically motivated” charges were instigated at the behest of the BJP government in Karnataka. 

The other aspirant is Mr Siddaramaiah, 75, who held the post from 2013 to 2018.

A post-poll survey by the Centre for Social and Development Studies found him to be the most popular face for chief minister.

The leader from the marginalised Kuruba community is known for policies to uplift the poor and backward castes, and his understanding of the agrarian economy.

He is also a rationalist who has long wanted to outlaw superstitious and discriminatory practices. 

Around 73 per cent of Karnataka’s 53 million voters cast their votes last Wednesday, the highest-ever turnout in the state’s history.

No one party won a simple majority in the previous election five years ago. 

The Congress party and regional party Janata Dal (Secular) formed a brief and wobbly coalition government. But 18 months later, a slew of legislators defected to the BJP, which then formed the government. 

Although the BJP retained its vote share of 36 per cent from the last election, it did not win constituencies beyond its strongholds.

Eleven ministers from its government lost while 11, including Mr Bommai, won. 

The BJP performed relatively better in cities, winning 16 of 28 constituencies in India’s Silicon Valley of Bengaluru, while the Congress bagged 12. In Jayanagar, a Bengaluru constituency, the BJP won by a sliver of just 16 votes, after postal ballots were recounted amid high drama late on Saturday night.

The BJP also won 13 of 19 seats in coastal districts like Udupi and Mangaluru, where the BJP’s Hindu nationalist agenda has many supporters.