NEW DELHI - The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) returned to power in Nagaland and Tripura, and also made a comeback as a ruling coalition partner in Meghalaya, after results were declared on Thursday for elections in these three north-eastern Indian states.
The BJP was governing in all three states that went to polls in February, either directly or through alliances with regional parties.
These wins will further entrench India’s ruling party as a key player in the north-east, where it has been expanding its influence since 2014, besides boosting cadre morale ahead of other crucial state elections in 2023, including in Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.
A general election to form the next federal government is also expected in April and May 2024.
Based on the final tally, the BJP won 32 of the 60 state assembly seats in Tripura and 12 of the 60 seats in Nagaland along with its alliance partner, Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party, which was victorious in 25.
But in Meghalaya, the BJP won just two of the 60 assembly seats, trailing its pre-election government coalition partner, National People’s Party (NPP), which won 26 seats. While the two parties contested the election independently, the BJP has announced it will support the NPP this time around as well.
Meghalaya and Nagaland have Christian-majority populations that comprise multiple tribal groups. The BJP has sought to build its presence here strategically, serving as junior coalition partners to regional parties and even defending beef-eating as part of local indigenous lifestyles, contrary to its vociferous support for a ban on cow slaughter and beef consumption in other parts of the country.
Yet, the party has found it difficult to make inroads in Meghalaya, given the strong suspicions of its right-wing Hindutva leanings, said Dr Susmita Sengupta, a political science professor at the North-Eastern Hill University in Meghalaya’s capital, Shillong.
But pragmatic politics has seen the party, which also won just two seats in Meghalaya in the 2018 state elections, strike an alliance with the NPP. “It is convenient for the NPP also because if you have good relations with the BJP and are a coalition partner, you get concessions from the BJP-led central government,” she noted.
The eight north-eastern states account for just 25 seats in the 545-member Lok Sabha, or Lower House of Parliament, but this region is coveted by the BJP, which has tried to deflect accusations of being an anti-minority and anti-tribal party, besides reinforcing its status as a pan-India party.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and federal Home Minister Amit Shah campaigned in the states that went to the polls, indicating the importance the party allocates to this region. It is likely to become even more important to the party in the 2024 general election, according to Ms Neerja Chowdhury, a senior political analyst.
“The party, due anti-incumbency, may lose in other parts of India where it had peaked in 2019. It has to make up for this and, therefore, the north-eastern states acquire even greater importance,” she said.
Anti-incumbency refers to a sentiment in favour of voting out incumbent politicians.
Another key message the results send across is the strong desire for respect of indigenous identities, languages and lifestyles, which has been reinforced by the strong performance of regional parties in these elections.
Tripura, which has a strong indigenous tribal presence, saw the emergence of Tipra Motha Party in 2019. It contested the state elections for the first time, amplifying tribal demands, including that of a separate state of “Greater Tipraland” for the state’s indigenous population. It won 13 of the 60 seats.
“Issues around identity have emerged as important in this election, and it sends a message to the BJP to respect the autonomy of regional parties along with local identities as opposed to uniformity,” added Ms Chowdhury.
Meanwhile, in a landmark judgment on Thursday, the Supreme Court ordered that election commissioners will have to be appointed by a panel, including the Prime Minister, Leader of Opposition and the Chief Justice, to maintain “purity of elections”.
Currently, the President appoints them for a term of six years on the recommendation of the Prime Minister. A batch of petitions had sought a collegium-like system for their appointment, arguing the current process was driven by “whims and fancies of the executive”.
