JAKARTA – Wrapping up the Indonesian presidential election in a single round is a feat for Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto that surpasses expectations, said experts, noting that the electoral gains he made reflect a well-thought-out campaign that spoke to people across the archipelago.

Despite his chequered past, Mr Prabowo, 72, has the political experience to govern Indonesia effectively and represent Indonesia on the international stage, added these observers.

They spoke to The Straits Times after unofficial quick count results from the Feb 14 election indicated that Mr Prabowo had won Indonesia’s presidency with nearly 60 per cent of the vote. With more than 205 million Indonesians qualified to vote on Feb 14, the nation is the world’s third-largest democracy.

Mr Prabowo declared victory for himself and his running mate Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the Mayor of Solo and son of President Joko Widodo, in front of thousands of supporters at a packed stadium in Jakarta hours after polls closed earlier that day.

Dr Mustafa Izzuddin, a senior international affairs analyst at policy and business consultancy Solaris Strategies Singapore, said garnering enough votes to avoid a run-off election in one of the world’s largest democracies shows that Mr Prabowo has worked hard to deserve the victory.

A run-off election has to be held if no candidate gets more than 50 per cent of the votes in the first round.

The last time Indonesia went to a run-off election was in 2004, when Dr Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono went up against Ms Megawati Sukarnoputri after they emerged as the top two among five candidates in the first round.

“Despite the criticisms levelled against him, Prabowo was able to surmount them, prove his critics wrong and defeat his competitors quite resoundingly,” said Dr Mustafa, who is also a visiting professor in international relations at the Islamic University of Indonesia.

“His choice of Gibran as his running mate has proven to be a political master stroke, as it is arguably pivotal in Prabowo winning the Indonesian presidential election.”

The outgoing president, Mr Widodo, who remains very popular among Indonesians, did not officially endorse anyone in the race to succeed him. But his son’s decision to be Mr Prabowo’s running mate is widely presumed as a presidential seal of approval.

This was in spite of the controversy that came with Mr Gibran’s vice-presidential candidacy, as Indonesia’s Constitutional Court issued a special ruling in October 2023 that effectively allowed previously elected regional leaders, like him, to run despite being younger than 40, the minimum age required to contest the election. Mr Gibran is 36.

Other factors paved the way for the pair to win as well.

Mr Dedi Dinarto, lead Indonesia analyst at public policy advisory firm Global Counsel, highlighted Mr Prabowo’s efforts in the online space.

During the 75-day hustings, Mr Prabowo cultivated for himself a “gemoy” persona, complete with a signature dance. The word is a play on “gemas”, an Indonesian slang term that means cute or adorable, which is widely used by young people.

Experts said the persona has been used to soften Mr Prabowo’s hardline image as a former military general who had faced allegations of human rights abuses in the past.

“His rampant social media campaign is a breakthrough in Indonesian electoral politics,” said Mr Dedi.

Mr Beltsazar Krisetya from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said Mr Prabowo did a successful “180-degree reimagining” of his image.

“The middle class especially had certain preconceptions of Mr Prabowo’s image, what with his controversial history of human rights violations... This notion was challenged and totally reworked by the portrayal we saw,” said Mr Beltsazar, the principal researcher at CSIS’ Safer Internet Lab.

He also pointed out how the Prabowo-Gibran team made promises of free food, milk for children and support for pregnant women, which all hit home for Indonesia’s lower class, which makes up the majority of voters.

As at Feb 15, the votes are still being counted by the General Elections Commission (KPU). Under Indonesia elections law, the vote-counting process may take up to 35 days to be completed, given the large number of eligible voters and the vast territory. The KPU has said official results are expected to be released by March 20 at the latest.

Official results are not expected to differ significantly from the quick count tallies.

Mr Prabowo’s competitors – former Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo and former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan – have not yet conceded defeat, and their campaign teams have urged supporters to wait for official results.

But regardless of Mr Prabowo’s path to the presidency, there is a consensus that he has the experience to run Indonesia well, having been in politics since 2004 and serving as the defence minister since 2019.

“Prabowo has the requisite political experience to govern Indonesia effectively and the diplomatic wisdom to navigate Indonesia masterfully on the international stage,” said Dr Mustafa.

Dr Irman G. Lanti from the Padjadjaran University in Indonesia pointed out how Mr Prabowo has a lot of international exposure, even more so than Mr Widodo now.

In his ministerial role, Mr Prabowo – who speaks fluent English, Dutch, French and German – has interacted regularly with military and world leaders.

In November 2023, Singapore conferred on Mr Prabowo its top military award, a sign that he has contributed significantly to close and longstanding bilateral defence relations between the two neighbours.

“He will represent the country naturally on the international stage,” noted Dr Irman, who is also a visiting fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

But Mr Prabowo’s presidency is unlikely to be totally smooth sailing despite the first-round victory, said Dr Irman, pointing to the controversial issues that arose during campaigning that he will have to deal with.

These include fierce opposition from university campuses and civil society activists, who have openly criticised him and Mr Widodo for supposedly colluding with each other.

Two days before the election, hundreds of Indonesian students and activists staged protests over what they saw as an abuse of power by Mr Widodo to sway voters towards Mr Prabowo.

On Jan 29, Mr Widodo was seen eating bakso (meatball soup) at a roadside stall with Mr Prabowo. They had met for dinner in Jakarta on Jan 5 as well – another meeting that was publicised.

Critics also said Mr Widodo had been deploying populist programmes purportedly in support of Mr Prabowo’s presidential bid. These range from El Nino cash aid for low-income households to the first pay rise for civil servants in five years.

“Even if he is able to manage opposition from the other parties… he would still face the issue of lacking legitimacy from the academic and progressive communities,” said Dr Irman.

There is also the looming issue of how Mr Prabowo and Mr Gibran will step out of Mr Widodo’s shadow and make their own mark in Indonesia.

While Mr Prabowo did not receive any explicit endorsement from Mr Widodo, he is enjoying a spike in popularity from his association with his old political foe-turned-friend, better known as Jokowi, whose leadership approval ratings exceed 70 per cent even as the President reaches the end of his term.

Mr Prabowo has repeatedly underscored his commitment to continue Mr Widodo’s ambitious economic development and legacy infrastructure projects, perhaps the most notable being the move of the administrative capital from Jakarta to Nusantara in East Kalimantan.

Dr Mustafa said: “There is a need for Prabowo to carve his own imprint that sets him apart from Jokowi, and for Gibran to carve his own identity going beyond the characterisation that he is Jokowi’s son.”