Why Britain has so many white Christmases (technically)

LONDON - It’s the fantasy festive image: snow on Christmas Day. Immortalised on countless holiday cards, inspired in the collective consciousness by Charles Dickens’ depictions of snow blanketing the cobbled, crowded streets of London in A Christmas Carol.

But if you’ve only read Dickens’ descriptions of the scenes – “for it was a clear, cold, winter day, with the snow upon the ground” – you might be surprised to learn that heavy snowfall on Christmas Day, or in December at all, is a rarity for Britain.

The Met Office, the national weather service for the country, says sleet and snow are more common in January than December.

So why was Dickens so fixated on snowy Christmas scenes?

One theory traces back to the switch from the Julian to the Gregorian calendar, which happened in Britain in the 18th century, less than 100 years before A Christmas Carol was published. In 1752, 11 days were removed from the calendar, effectively moving Christmas Day backward 12 days, from what had previously been Jan 5.

The Met Office supports this, explaining that “white Christmases were more frequent in the 18th and 19th centuries, even more so before the change of calendar in 1752”.

Writer Peter Ackroyd, in his biography of Dickens, highlights another connection: “In view of the fact that Dickens can be said to have almost single-handedly created the modern idea of Christmas, it is interesting to note that in fact during the first eight years of his life there was a white Christmas every year; so sometimes reality does actually exist before the idealised image.”

The Met Office could not verify this, as its weather maps date back only to 1959.

In the modern era, the Met Office has a slightly different bar for what qualifies as an official white Christmas, and it is far lower than you might expect.

All it takes, it says, is “a single snowflake” observed falling on Christmas Day, seen by an official Met Office observer or by a Met Office automated weather station.

Yes. One single snowflake is enough.

The most recent official white Christmas in Britain was in 2023, with 11 per cent of stations recording snow falling, though none reported snow actually on the ground.

The previous three years were similar, while 2018 and 2019 recorded no snow falling anywhere. In about half of the years since 1960, at least 5 per cent of stations recorded snow falling on Christmas Day.

A Dickensian-style white Christmas with widespread snow on the ground is much rarer. It has happened only four times since 1960, the most recent being 14 years ago, in 2010: 83 per cent of stations reported snow on the ground, and 19 per cent recorded snow or sleet falling.

Will Britain see a white Christmas this year? Probably not.

Conditions across the country in the lead-up to Christmas are looking unsettled, said Mr Dan Harris, deputy chief meteorologist of the Met Office.

Rain and disruptive strong winds are forecast across large swathes of Britain. National severe weather warnings for wind have been issued for Dec 21 and Dec 22, which Mr Harris warned could cause some disruption to travel.

As for Christmas, Mr Harris said, “Temperatures are expected to be widely mild, so if you are hoping for a blanket of snow across the country on Christmas Day, I’m sorry to say you will be disappointed.” NYTIMES