Where does the Aukus security pact stand under Trump?
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Under the Aukus pact, the US will sell Australia three of its nuclear-powered Virginia-class submarines.
PHOTO: REUTERS
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In an effort to counter China’s military expansion in the Indo-Pacific region, Australia, Britain and the US signed a defence accord known as Aukus in 2021.
Central to the agreement is a controversial project – expected to cost hundreds of billions of dollars – to help Australia develop a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines over a 30-year period.
The future of the Biden-era security agreement has been uncertain ever since US President Donald Trump returned to office, especially after his administration commissioned a review of Aukus in June.
But on Oct 20, during a meeting with Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Mr Trump declared “full steam ahead”
The possibilities of the Aukus agreement have also led Japan, South Korea and New Zealand to publicly express interest in joining.
In an unreleased assessment to Congress, the US State Department said that Japan would be a “capable participant” in the partnership.
What is Aukus?
The most eye-catching part of the Aukus pact is the agreement to help Australia acquire a fleet of eight nuclear-powered submarines
At the moment, only six nations – the US, Britain, France, China, Russia and India – have the technology to deploy and operate nuclear-powered subs.
Such vessels are faster than their diesel-electric counterparts, can stay submerged for several months, and have space for more weapons, equipment and supplies.
The plan is for the US to sell Australia three of its nuclear-powered Virginia-class submarines.
Two subs from the existing fleet are meant to be transferred in 2032 and 2035, and the third is to be newly built and delivered in fiscal year 2038.
In addition, Australia and Britain together are to design and build a next-generation submarine partly using American technology, due to be completed in the 2040s.
Under the deal, Britain would also expand its own nuclear-powered fleet of submarines, from seven to as many as 12.
The Aukus deal represented the first time that the US agreed to share its highly sensitive sub technology since 1965.
The agreement was important enough to the US that it was willing to risk a diplomatic crisis with France, which saw a US$66 billion (S$85.5 billion) contract to provide conventional submarines to Australia abruptly cancelled because of Aukus.
The partnership is not limited to submarines.
The second pillar of the deal, for instance, revolves around strategic technology sharing in areas such as quantum computing, artificial intelligence and advanced weaponry.
It is this part of the pact that Japan, South Korea and New Zealand have expressed interest in.
What did the State Department say about Japan’s potential participation?
In its report dated May 30, a copy of which was made available to Bloomberg News, the State Department was generally upbeat about Japan’s readiness to join the partnership’s second pillar.
The report cites Japan’s investments in advanced defence systems, industrial-base improvements and cyber-security protocols.
Why did the Pentagon review raise alarms?
When the review was announced, the Pentagon said it would examine whether the deal, signed while Mr Joe Biden was president, was “aligned with” Mr Trump’s “America First agenda”.
The Trump administration has sought to shift the burden of collective defence onto its allies, as well as ensure the US has enough naval power of its own in case of a military clash over the coming decades.
More generally, the Trump administration has been ramping up pressure on allies around the world – including Nato countries and regional partners in Asia – to increase their military budgets.
And the US wants to narrow its own gap in total ships with China’s Navy, the world’s largest.
In a face-to-face meeting with Australia’s Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles in June, US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth asked Canberra to raise its defence spending to 3.5 per cent of its gross domestic product (GDP)
Currently, Australia is on track to boost its military spending to about 2.4 per cent of GDP by the mid-2030s.
In a sign of confidence that the pact would push ahead, the Australian government in September announced at least US$9 billion in related defence investments, and earlier in 2025 delivered a A$500 million (S$420 million) down payment to the US
A subsequent Oct 20 meeting between Mr Trump, Mr Albanese and senior officials from both countries helped ease concerns about the pact’s future.
Asked by a reporter whether he supported and would honour the deal, Mr Trump said: “I think it’s moving along very rapidly and very well.”
Still, the review remains ongoing and any major overhaul of Aukus could deal a serious blow to Australia’s defence sector, which had begun to reshape itself to support the submarine programme.
Why has Aukus been controversial?
US shipbuilding and submarine production has been plagued by delays and cost overruns.
In 2024, a top US lawmaker revealed that the Navy’s Virginia-class submarine programme was at least two years behind schedule and was projected to run US$17 billion over its planned budget through 2030.
Sceptics of Aukus include US Undersecretary of Defence for Policy Elbridge Colby.
He posted on social media in 2024 that “it would be crazy to have fewer SSNs in the right place and time”, using the shorthand for nuclear-powered attack submarine.
The pact has also attracted criticism in Australia.
Former Australian prime ministers Paul Keating and Malcolm Turnbull have disapproved of the agreement, saying it undermines the nation’s defence sovereignty at a time of growing strategic uncertainty in the Indo-Pacific.
Following the announcement of the US review, Mr Keating described the Aukus programme as the “most poorly conceived defence procurement programme ever adopted by an Australian government”. Critics of the pact said the review would present Australia with an opportunity to leave the deal.
What do China and other countries think about Aukus?
China has been highly critical of the security pact since it was signed.
At a Ministry of Foreign Affairs briefing in Beijing on June 12, spokesman Lin Jian said China opposed “anything that amplifies the risk of nuclear proliferation and exacerbates an arms race”.
China has repeatedly petitioned the International Atomic Energy Agency to consider the Aukus pact a breach of nuclear non-proliferation treaties.
China’s state-run media has also repeatedly accused Australia of trying to become a nuclear threat.
The initial announcement in 2021 was greeted with some concern from South-east Asian nations, including Indonesia and Malaysia, which worried about a regional arms race.
Others, including Japan and the Philippines, fellow US treaty allies, were positive about the partnership. BLOOMBERG
