Wars top global risk as Davos elite gather in shadow of fragmented world

LONDON – Armed conflict is the top risk in 2025, a World Economic Forum (WEF) survey released on Jan 15 showed, a reminder of the deepening global fragmentation as government and business leaders attend an annual gathering in Davos next week.

Nearly one in four of the more than 900 experts surveyed across academia, business and policymaking ranked conflict, including wars and terrorism, as the most severe risk to economic growth for the year ahead.

Extreme weather, the No. 1 concern in 2024, was the second-ranked danger.

“Rising geopolitical tensions and a fracturing of trust are driving the global risk landscape,” said WEF managing director Mirek Dusek.

He added: “In this complex and dynamic context, leaders have a choice – to find ways to foster collaboration and resilience, or face compounding vulnerabilities.

“The stakes have never been higher.”

The WEF gets under way on Jan 20 and Donald Trump, who will be sworn in as the 47th president of the United States the same day and has promised to end the war in Ukraine, will

address the meeting virtually

on Jan 23.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky will attend the meeting and give a speech on Jan 21, according to the WEF organisers.

Among other global leaders due to attend the meeting are European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and China’s Vice-Premier Ding Xuexiang.

Syria, the “terrible humanitarian situation in Gaza”, and the potential escalation of the conflict in the Middle East will be a focus at the gathering, according to WEF President and CEO Borge Brende.

Negotiators were

hammering out the final details

of a potential ceasefire in Gaza on Jan 15, following marathon talks in Qatar.

The threat of misinformation and disinformation was ranked as the most severe global risk over the next two years, according to the survey, the same ranking as in 2024.

Over a 10-year horizon, environmental threats dominated experts’ risk concerns, the survey showed.

Extreme weather was the top longer-term global risk, followed by biodiversity loss, critical change to Earth’s systems and a shortage of natural resources.

Global temperatures in 2024

exceeded 1.5 deg C

above the pre-industrial era for the first time, bringing the world closer to breaching the pledge governments made under the 2015 Paris climate agreement.

A global risk is defined by the survey as a condition that would negatively affect a significant proportion of global gross domestic product, population or natural resources.

Experts were surveyed in September and October.

The majority of respondents – 64 per cent – expect a multipolar, fragmented global order to persist. REUTERS