Xi may want Trump to rein in Japan in spat with China, say analysts

AUSTIN – Chinese President Xi Jinping wants to see the United States rein in Japan to help defuse the worst diplomatic crisis in Asia in years, according to US-based analysts. 

There was no explicit mention of the China-Japan spat, raging since Nov 7, during the hour-long phone conversation between Mr Xi and his US counterpart Donald Trump on Nov 24.

Mr Trump did not name Japan or Taiwan in a social media post after the call. An official readout from China also made no mention of Japan. 

But analysts said it was notable that it was Mr Xi who initiated the call. This indicated China’s keenness to frame the issue and caution Washington against leaning towards Tokyo and imperilling its own relationship with Beijing, they said.

However, this characterisation was disputed on Nov 25 by a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, who said at a regular daily press conference in Beijing that it was Mr Trump who initiated the call.

Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi told reporters early on Nov 25 in Tokyo that

she had discussed China relations in a call with Mr Trump

at his request. The White House has yet to comment on this call.

The spat was sparked off by

Ms Takaichi’s suggestion during a Nov 7 parliamentary debate

that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could be an existential threat that triggers a military response from Tokyo. An infuriated Beijing launched a pressure campaign, asking its tourists to avoid Japan, threatening to ban Japanese seafood and criticising Japan at the United Nations.

As tensions ratcheted up, Japan countered China with its own statement at the UN, saying it was moving to deploy a medium-range surface-to-air missile unit at a military base on Yonaguni, an island near Taiwan’s east coast. China called the move a deliberate attempt to “create regional tension and provoke military confrontation”.

But none of those tensions were referenced in the statements from Washington and Beijing after their leaders held the first conversation after their Oct 30 meeting in South Korea produced a year-long trade truce.

“I just had a very good telephone call with President Xi, of China. We discussed many topics including Ukraine/Russia, fentanyl, soybeans and other farm products, etc,” Mr Trump said in his Truth Social post after the Nov 24 call. 

He described the US relationship with China as “extremely strong” and said he and Mr Xi had also discussed reciprocal state visits in 2026. 

A readout provided by China’s Xinhua news agency said that Mr Xi had noted the progress made in bilateral cooperation and spoke of Taiwan’s “return” to China.

“President Xi outlined China’s principled position on the Taiwan question,” the readout said.

“He underscored that Taiwan’s return to China is an integral part of the post-war international order. China and the US fought shoulder to shoulder against fascism and militarism. Given what is going on, it is even more important for us to jointly safeguard the victory of World War II.”

“China was a big part of the victory of WWII. The US understands how important the Taiwan question is to China,” the statement said.

Taiwan Premier Cho Jung-tai told reporters in Taipei on Nov 25 that a “return” to China is not an option for the island’s 23 million people.

Taiwan Deputy Foreign Minister Francois Wu Chih-chung told Bloomberg that Mr Trump’s lack of overt public Taiwan references is “the best result” since this suggests the self-governing island is not “part of the deal” in broader US-China talks.

Mr Xi likely initiated the call to nudge the framing of China and Japan tensions over Taiwan as a matter of shared interest rather than a basis for altercation, said Mr David Meale, a former US diplomat who has served in Beijing and Taipei.

“He wants good relations with Trump and will appreciate any help in turning down the volume in the China-Japan spat,” said Mr Meale, who now leads political risk consultancy Eurasia Group’s China practice.

“My guess is Trump’s lack of reference to Taiwan in his post reflects that he was on the receiving end of that topic,” he added.

The Chinese readout made no mention of Japan, but the reference to World War II and fascism and militarism was a clear reference to the country, noted Dr Bonny Lin, director of the China Power Project and senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. 

“I worry that this Xi-initiated call is sending a message to the US that China is going to escalate against Japan and that the US should be careful about supporting Japan because this could have negative repercussions on the US-China relationship and the US-China relationship is going very well.”

Dr Lin did not rule out a further flaring up of the dispute.

“I am personally watching all the new live-fire military exercise notices China has released...to see if there is any additional military escalation beyond what we’ve seen already,” she said.

Beijing often wants Washington to handle China’s friction with US allies, said Ms Rorry Daniels, managing director of Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI).

“It sees allies as subordinate to US direction and hopes Trump and his team can achieve what Chinese invective has not: softening or ‘correction’ of Japan’s position.”

Mr Trump’s own Truth Social readout of the call does not mention Taiwan at all, Ms Daniels said, noting that it “may spark significant anxiety in both Tokyo and Taipei that he merely absorbed Beijing’s position without considering their security concerns”.

Dr Lin said China has been watching the Trump administration’s recent Taiwan moves with concern, including the first arms sale to the island in Mr Trump’s second term. The US Congress has been notified of a US$330 million (S$430 million) potential arms sale package that includes spare parts for fighter jets and transport aircraft.

“How closely the US arms sales to Taiwan followed the Trump-Xi summit probably came as a surprise to Beijing, since it took two months for the US to agree to arms sales to Taiwan after the April 2017 Mar-a-lago meeting,” she said.

China is also watchful about a potential transit in the US by Taiwan’s President William Lai by year-end. Reports say the stopover may be part of a trip to South America, although Taipei has denied such plans.

“China’s Taiwan Affairs Office has been fielding more than one question about this recently,” Dr Lin noted.

In addition, Congressional pressure on the Trump Administration to do more on Taiwan is also a pain point for Beijing.

The US Senate on Nov 18 passed the Taiwan Assurance Implementation Act that seeks to remove restrictions on official engagements with Taiwan and could even allow senior Taiwan officials to visit the US capital.

Two days later, US experts told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that it was time to expand the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), the de facto US embassy in Taipei. They suggested adding more facilities and staff and appointing an AIT chairperson to fill a position vacant since Mr Trump took over.

Beijing may, however, be leaning on Mr Trump to be more accommodating of its Taiwan interests.

Professor Graham Allison at the Harvard Kennedy School offered an explanation of Mr Trump’s typically muted response to the Taiwan issue in a

Nov 21 podcast interview with The Straits Times

.

“If you study what President Trump has said about Taiwan, in the first term, in the election and subsequently, he doesn’t care that much about Taiwan,” Dr Allison said, referring to accounts from the Oval Office where Mr Trump has made pointed references to the vast disparity in the size of Taiwan compared to China. 

In an interview after meeting Mr Xi in South Korea, Mr Trump had also said that Taiwan was only 90 miles (145km) off the shore of China and over 7,000 miles from the US. 

It is likely that he and Mr Xi have understood each other about Taiwan and will not do anything to upset the status quo and be dragged into a war they do not want, Dr Allison said.

Ms Daniels of ASPI said this is a test of US priorities.

“In the coming months, we’ll see whether Chinese narratives are shaping Trump administration decision-making, especially as Trump sees trade negotiations as back on track and driving towards concrete outcomes in 2026,” she said.