Coronavirus may be bigger threat to North Korea than sanctions

NEW YORK • United States President Donald Trump has called the coronavirus "the invisible enemy".

But when it comes to sanctions on North Korea, the pathogen may turn out to be his administration's most effective ally.

North Korea's fear of infection appears to have achieved what Mr Trump's "maximum pressure" campaign against its nuclear and missile work has not: Choking the North's economy by stopping its trafficking of coal and other goods, prohibited under United Nations sanctions, which is believed to be mostly with China.

Based on a satellite-image analysis last Thursday by the London-based Royal United Services Institute and a review of additional satellite imagery by The New York Times, many North Korean commercial vessels that once carried sanctioned material to and from China - or transferred them illicitly ship to ship at sea - are now idled in their home ports.

The change, seen after North Korea sought to seal itself off two months ago as China battled the coronavirus outbreak, effectively puts an end to the large and coordinated efforts to evade UN Security Council Resolutions by shipping resources to China, said the analysis.

It showed for the first time how a large number of North Korean ships have moved back to Nampo, a vital port region on the western coast. On March 3, 139 ships were idled in Nampo, up from 50 ships a month earlier.

The fleet includes vessels previously implicated in sanctions evasion operations, which are often tracked through satellite imagery and aerial or ground surveillance by other states, independent research groups and the UN.

The analysis said the idled ships included some of the most active and scrutinised oil tankers used for the illicit import of refined petroleum products such as fuel. For example, the oil tanker New Regent, which had been spotted making unreported deliveries as recently as January this year and twice last year, was seen in Nampo in the images.

An increase in the number of idled cargo ships can also be seen in Chongjin, an industrial port city on the east coast.

The possible drop in fuel imports would affect North Korea's agriculture sector. Diesel is used for powering water pumps in agriculture. And the current restrictions on legitimate trade, also attributable to the pandemic, carry additional risks for North Korean farming.

"There could be disruptions of the food planting season, which starts now, for example, because of an interruption of fertiliser imports from China," said Mr Daniel Wertz, programme manager for the National Committee on North Korea, a Washington-based group that advocates improved ties between North Korea and the U S.

The recall of ships is part of border closures which started on Jan 22, the same time China's Wuhan city was shut down.

Professor Park Jong-chol at South Korea's Gyeongsang National University said the coronavirus is more threatening than UN Security Council sanctions.

Analysts said it is reasonable to assume damage has been done to North Korean agriculture, industry and the overall economy. "If their exports are declining, and coal smuggling or other operations are interrupted, that might definitely have an impact," Mr Wertz said.

In an analysis published last month by the 38North website, he wrote ominously about the potential impact of the virus: "The next few months may provide a grim natural experiment showing what might happen to the North Korean economy if its economic linkages with China truly begin to be severed."

NYTIMES