US V-P J.D. Vance emerges as Trump’s Iran closer, a task fraught with risk

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WASHINGTON – After being out of sight for pivotal moments of the war against Iran, US Vice-President J.D. Vance is taking centre stage. 

Mr Vance is leading a US delegation to Islamabad for the first face-to-face talks with Iranian officials since the beginning of the conflict, which has triggered a global energy crisis.

The outcome could determine whether a tenuous two-week ceasefire turns into a lasting peace or ultimately unravels and plunges the region into further conflict. 

The stakes are also high for Mr Vance himself.

Thrust into the middle of a war he did not want, US President Donald Trump is now counting on the Vice-President to be his closer.

If he succeeds, it could help him burnish his credibility on the world stage ahead of a possible White House run in 2028.

Failure, however, could damage his standing and saddle him with the chunk of the blame.

Two people close to the White House said it was their understanding that Mr Vance wanted to lead the negotiations with Iran.

He will be accompanied by special envoy Steve Witkoff and Mr Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner.

All three lack traditional diplomatic backgrounds.

“I wanted to be involved because I thought I could make a difference,” Mr Vance told reporters earlier this week. “The people really on the ground doing the day-to-day negotiating have been Steve and Jared.”

It is unclear if the US and Iran will come to a permanent agreement during this weekend’s talks, and thus a final verdict on Mr Vance’s performance may take weeks to decide.

A White House official said the President personally asked Mr Vance to lead the negotiations. 

Mr Vance has “always been collaborating on these discussions” with Mr Witkoff, Mr Kushner and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said, adding Mr Trump is “is hopeful for a positive negotiation if the Iranians are willing to work in good faith”.

‘Delicate moment’

Mr Vance voiced opposition to a full-scale war with Iran to the President directly as he deliberated whether to attack, according to a person familiar who was granted anonymity to discuss private conversations.

When Mr Trump watched the US and Israeli bombing campaign unfold on Feb 28 from his Mar-a-Lago club, Mr Vance dialled in from the White House Situation Room.

Mr Vance was in Budapest when Mr Trump initially announced the ceasefire deal. 

“It’s a particularly delicate moment for Vance,” said Mr Elliott Abrams, who served as Mr Trump’s special envoy to Iran and Venezuela during his first term.

“If the negotiations result in a bad outcome, now he’s equally involved. It’s a roll of the dice.” 

Some White House officials believed that having an elected leader helm the talks, rather than a Cabinet secretary or envoy, would carry more weight with the Iranians, according to a person close to the White House who asked not to be identified to discuss private deliberations.

Mr Witkoff also suggested Mr Vance because of his stature, according to another person close to the White House. 

“He comes with a lot of legitimacy that no secretary of state, no national security adviser or no senator who’s been elected by people of one state could match,” said Mr Robert O’Brien, one of Mr Trump’s first-term national security advisers.

Given Mr Vance’s opposition to so-called forever wars, he has incentive to find a resolution, Mr O’Brien said.

If the Vice-President is unable to secure a deal, it gives Mr Trump more political cover to “start things up again”, he added.

That dynamic is also what makes Mr Vance’s position fraught with challenges. It forces him to balance his allegiance to the President with his own misgivings about military interventions. 

It also thrusts him into an internal battle within the conservative movement between frustrated Iran hawks and some in Mr Trump’s America-first base who feel betrayed by the administration over a largely unpopular war.

Mr Trump recently excoriated some prominent anti-war podcasters, including commentator Tucker Carlson, as “NUT JOBS”.

Mr Carlson’s son Buckley has served on Mr Vance’s staff.

Tehran does not trust Mr Witkoff and Mr Kushner, who led a failed round of talks before the war began, so Mr Vance’s presence could signal to the Iranians that the US is serious about negotiations, said Ms Rosemary Kelanic, director of the Middle East programme at Defence Priorities, a Washington think-tank that supports a more restrained foreign policy.

“Just because trust is at such a low with Iran, having a new face, a fresh face, and one that is perceived to be aligned with restraint will allow the Iranians to take negotiations more seriously,” Ms Kelanic said.

But Republican interventionists are eyeing the talks warily.

Senator Lindsey Graham on April 8 named Mr Vance as an “architect” of a “supposed” negotiating document with Iran that he said contained “troubling aspects”, before expressing confidence in Mr Trump’s ability to negotiate a lasting peace.

Sending Iran’s preferred negotiator also signals a “bad start”, warned Mr Abrams. 

Political gamble

Mr Vance’s most memorable moment in international affairs thus far became infamous for its bluntness: his Oval Office dressing down of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Now, he will be counted on to handle delicate negotiations with representatives of a country whose civilisation Mr Trump vowed would “die” if they did not cut a deal.

Mr Vance has said he “sat on the phone a lot” over the last few weeks as he worked the phones to help broker the ceasefire.

The outcome of the war carries profound implications for Mr Trump’s political legacy.

But it is Mr Vance who is making a high-stakes political gamble that could have lasting consequences with voters he may need to win over, should he run for president in 2028.

If the negotiations ultimately succeed, Mr Vance could gain a leg up on potential rivals – a group that might include Mr Rubio – by being able to claim he is the one who helped end a conflict that split Mr Trump’s base. 

The decision to place Mr Vance in a more public role is risky not just for the Vice-President, but also for Mr Trump.

Envoys or diplomats typically lay the groundwork for major negotiations before top officials get involved, in part so they can avoid blame if things go sideways.

“If it doesn’t happen, I’m blaming J.D. Vance,” Mr Trump joked during an Easter luncheon on April 1, as Mr Vance looked on from the front row. “If it does happen, I’m taking full credit.”

Despite his personal opinions, Mr Vance has made it clear he would support whatever course Mr Trump chose.

“Whatever your view is, when the President of the United States makes a decision, it’s your job to help make that decision as effective and successful as possible,” Mr Vance said, following the resignation of Mr Joe Kent, Mr Trump’s director of the National Counterterrorism Centre, who criticised the war.

“That’s how I do my job, and I think that’s how everybody in the administration should do their job, too.” BLOOMBERG