US shutdown risks rise as Democrats dig in on healthcare fixes

WASHINGTON - Out-of-power Democrats have been unable to slow down the president’s agenda or even make headlines in Donald Trump’s Washington. 

They could do both by risking an Oct 1 US government shutdown, a strategy that party leaders have now embraced.

It’s a remarkable turnaround for a risk-averse party that just six months ago capitulated to Mr Trump and congressional Republicans to avert a disruption of government services. 

At the time, Democratic leaders feared the newly inaugurated president was too popular to take on.

But they’re now under increasing pressure from their restive base to go to the mat to prevent a spike in Obamacare premiums and at least try to reverse deep cuts to Medicaid enacted in Mr Trump’s US$4 trillion (S$5.13 trillion) tax and spending cut legislation.

“Bewildering why Dems haven’t been more focused on THAT for weeks heading into the current standoff,” longtime Democratic strategist David Axelrod mused on X about the percolating health-care debate. “It’s something that matters to folks, regardless of party.”

Democrats have actually held press conferences on the issue for weeks but the message barely registers in news cycles dominated by Mr Trump. As a result, Democrats have appeared largely absent from governing, a position that has brought their favorability ratings to historic lows. 

An Economist/YouGov poll conducted Sept 12 to Sept 15 found 33 per cent of respondents viewed Democrats favorably compared to 60 per cent unfavorable, and only 26 per cent found the party effective. The GOP polled at 38 per cent favorable in the same poll with an effectiveness rating of 52 per cent.

Sagging poll numbers – combined with Republican efforts to redraw House district maps in their favor – have Democrats concerned about their mid-term chances. 

Texas has already altered its map to give the GOP five more seats, a move that could be countered by a California effort to gerrymander if voters approve of the plan in November. But other GOP-led states like Missouri, Indiana and Ohio are in the process of adding more Republican-safe seats as well.

Meanwhile, just enough moderate Republicans have expressed worry about expiring Obamacare subsidies and Trump’s cuts to medical research to make a partisan deal seem possible.

All of this has many Democrats spoiling for a fight, ratcheting up the chances of a shutdown with less than two weeks to go. And once it begins, there may be no easy way out, especially if Mr Trump decides to use the shutdown to exert more executive authority. 

Communications breakdown

Republicans need at least seven Democratic votes to push a spending bill through the Senate, giving the minority in that chamber significant leverage if Democratic leader Chuck Schumer can keep his members in line. 

But Senate Majority Leader John Thune so far is calling Mr Schumer’s bluff and the leaders have yet to meet. The standoff between the two men – whose offices are on the same floor of the Capitol – has led to finger pointing over who is to blame for the communications breakdown. 

“We are hoping there are Democrats out there who think it’s a really bad idea to shut down the government,” Mr Thune told reporters. 

Democrats released a proposal seeking to tie a long-term extension of expiring Obamacare tax subsidies, a proposal that could cost hundreds of billions, to a government funding extension. The plan would also reverse Medicaid cuts enacted in July as part of Mr Trump’s signature US$4 trillion tax and spending cut bill. 

Mr Thune had earlier told reporters any counteroffer with major healthcare provisions attached to a short term spending bill is “totally unserious” and that a discussion of Obamacare subsidies can happen at a later date.

Mr Schumer, in turn, faulted Republicans for not being willing to negotiate at all and seeking to jam Democrats instead with a take-it-or-shut-down offer. 

“Ask the Republicans if they are willing to shut the government down,” Mr Schumer told reporters in the Capitol on Sept 16, adding that Republican leaders have not asked Democrats to negotiate “at all.”

A new low

One potential solution to the shutdown drama could be Mr Thune and Mr Schumer agreeing to begin talks on the expiration of Obamacare subsidies before the vote on the stopgap spending bill. But that would require negotiating.  

“Those guys have to figure out if they want our votes or not. And we’re not unreasonable,” Democratic Senator Brian Schatz, a rising star in the party who voted in March to avoid a shutdown, said of Republicans on Sept 17. “Nobody covets a shutdown. But they are acting like meeting with us is some threshold they won’t cross.”

Mr Schumer has said he sent Mr Thune a letter in the US mail imploring him to meet, and he’s publicly called on Thune to hold talks on the stopgap for weeks. Mr Thune, for his part, told reporters that Mr Schumer never called him to set up any meeting or walked down the hall to meet him. 

The absurdity reached a new level on Sept 16 when Mr Thune walked by Mr Schumer as he was discussing with reporters Mr Thune’s lack of outreach. A reporter pointed out Mr Schumer could have grabbed him at that moment to chat. 

They didn’t talk. 

Congress tends to wait until the last minute to resolve shutdown standoffs, so the posturing may go on for another week or more. At some point, Republicans plan to put their seven-week bill on the Senate floor and Washington will find out if Democrats are bluffing.

Financial markets generally shrug off a short closure of the federal government. A prolonged shutdown, like the 35-day shutdown during Mr Trump’s first term, would have a measurable economic impact. BLOOMBERG