US govt shutdown poker: Which side has the winning hand?
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A volunteer unloading donations at a food pantry in Los Angeles that serves low-income Americans affected by the government shutdown.
PHOTO: EPA
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WASHINGTON – Washington is in a stand-off and the chips are down – with the government shuttered for weeks, federal workers stuck in limbo, and millions who rely on health insurance subsidies scared of losing the shirt off their backs.
Behind the scenes, it is not just about budgets: It is about who is winning the blame game.
Democrats argue that they have the clearer story and the more relatable message. Republicans have President Donald Trump’s megaphone, but critics say their argument is tangled in technicalities.
Polling shows the public assigns blame to both parties. The most recent surveys show a plurality blaming Republicans, although Mr Trump remains largely unscathed
But with each missed pay cheque and rising premium, the stakes get higher – and someone is going to fold.
This shutdown is not your garden-variety gridlock. It is already the second-longest in history, and neither side looks close to backing down.
It is the first significant shutdown driven by Democrats, and only the second time the government has paused over demands to spend rather than save.
Democrats want to extend subsidies for health insurance premiums that help millions afford coverage. Republicans say: Reopen the government first, then maybe we will talk.
But Republicans control the White House, House and Senate. So when the lights go out, Democrats say their opponents cannot offload the blame.
Democrats’ play: Keep it simple
Democrats are betting on clarity
Ms Ashley Kirzinger, from health research group KFF, said the message that “healthcare is at risk” is a widely understood pitch that lands.
“What we found is 78 per cent of the public – including majorities of Democrats, independents, Republicans and (Trump) supporters – all think Congress should extend the premium tax credits beyond 2025,” she told NPR.
Democrats also feel comfortable taking the fight to Republicans on a “tent pole issue” central to their brand, said Professor Matthew Foster, who teaches politics at American University.
Republicans move from red meat to procedure
Republicans – from Mr Trump to Vice-President J.D. Vance and House Speaker Mike Johnson – kicked off the shutdown with a blunt message: “Democrats want to fund free healthcare for illegal immigrants.”
The claim did not hold up, as undocumented immigrants are barred from the benefits Democrats are pushing, and polling on its effectiveness is threadbare.
Republicans soon pivoted to process.
They argue that they passed a “clean CR” – a temporary funding Bill – and blame the gridlock on Democrats wielding the “filibuster”, the 60-vote threshold required to get legislation through the 100-member Senate.
Critics say voters do not care about procedural chess, and trying to explain the filibuster is like reading the fine print on a casino voucher.
The voters that matter “aren’t paying close enough attention to know this nuance”, Prof Foster said.
Who’s holding the better cards?
Democrats are playing the emotional hand – healthcare, working families, real-world consequences.
Republicans lean on process and power plays. Mr Trump’s bravado fires up the base, but analysts say he risks alienating voters who just want their pay cheques and prescriptions.
“Polls show that people aren’t necessarily blaming him yet, but as the economy turns, as other things do, that could shift drastically,” Prof Foster said.
In the most recent polling, Reuters/Ipsos
Mr Trump’s approval in the Ipsos poll ticked up over the shutdown, from 40 per cent to 42 per cent.
Playing the long game
Democrats are looking past the gridlock, and elevating healthcare as a defining issue for the 2026 midterm elections. As premiums rise and frustration builds, they hope voters connect the dots: Republican control equals shutdown pain.
Republicans see leverage – a chance to reshape the government and flex muscle. But the longer it drags on, analysts say, the more the shutdown looks like a risky bet.
Associate Professor Peter Loge, who specialises in political communication at George Washington University, said: “Both sides are blaming the other for breaking America.
“And if they’re not careful, both sides will be right.” AFP
