US gets ready for Super Tuesday vote in lead up to November presidential election

WASHINGTON – Voters in 15 states, including titans California and Texas, will head to the polls on March 5 for a Super Tuesday that is likely to set up a White House rematch in November between United States President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump.

The contests will also determine the contours of races for the House and Senate that will shape the legislative branch in 2025.

Here is what else to watch as the results roll in.

Will Nikki Haley end her campaign or keep going?

Mrs Nikki Haley, former governor of South Carolina and Trump’s first ambassador to the United Nations,

won her first Republican primary on March 3

, in the District of Columbia, and could pick up a few more on March 5. The moderate Republican senators of Maine, Ms Susan Collins, and Alaska, Ms Lisa Murkowski, endorsed her in recent days, just in time for their states’ Super Tuesday contests.

Minnesota’s open primary on March 5 will allow Democrats to vote for Mrs Haley if they choose to do so. And polling in Virginia showed her inching closer to Trump.

But the biggest troves of delegates – California has 169 and Texas 161 – are almost certain to go to Trump.

Super Tuesday has loomed large for Mrs Haley’s donors. More than one-third of all delegates will be allotted on March 5. It is not enough to make Trump the presumptive nominee but enough to make him the prohibitive favourite.

Mrs Haley will then face choices with huge ramifications: Does she drop out and endorse Trump, drop out and hold off on any endorsement, stay in the race until her money is gone, or consider a third-party run? (She has said she will not do this, but the centrist group No Labels continues to hold out hope she would join its ticket.)

Will the pro-Palestinian protests trouble Biden?

If anything, Mr Biden faces even larger problems reuniting the coalition of voters who delivered his victory in 2020.

But unlike the GOP (Grand Old Party), Democratic disharmony on the night of March 5 will not manifest itself in votes for an alternative candidate. It may show in votes for “uncommitted”.

Even as Mr Biden won overwhelmingly in Michigan last week,

13.2 per cent of Democratic primary voters cast their ballots for “uncommitted”

, most of them protesting Mr Biden’s tilt toward Israel in its brutal war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

That total showed the fragility of the Democratic coalition – especially with young progressives and Arab Americans – as Mr Biden begins a difficult drive towards re-election.

The next test for Mr Biden comes on March 5 in Minnesota. The state has far fewer Arab American voters than Michigan, but Minneapolis has a powerful progressive base.

Leaders of the protest effort are hoping for 10,000 “uncommitted” votes, a fraction of the 101,436 who cast such votes on Feb 27. And Mr Biden’s 7-percentage-point victory in the state in 2020 was more comfortable than his 3-point win in Michigan.

But trailing in the polls, Mr Biden needs to bring his party together, and pro-Palestinian voices understand they have leverage to try to sway US policy in the war. His headaches will continue in Washington state on March 12, where progressives are mounting the next “uncommitted” campaign.

California’s consequential down-ballot primaries

The largest state in the nation will hold the most consequential down-ballot primaries on March 5, thanks to its unusual primary system, in which the top two finishers face off on election day, regardless of party.

The marquee race is for the Senate seat held until 2023 by Ms Dianne Feinstein, who died at 90 in September. The contest attracted three Democratic heavy hitters, all from California’s House delegation: Mr Adam Schiff, Ms Katie Porter and Ms Barbara Lee.

For much of the campaign, it looked like the top two finalists would be Democrats: Mr Schiff and Ms Porter. Then came the rise of a celebrity Republican, former Los Angeles Dodgers great Steve Garvey.

He did not do much campaigning, but Mr Schiff, figuring that in a Democratic state such as California, a Republican would be easier to beat in November, spent US$10 million (S$13.44 million) on ads that ostensibly attacked Mr Garvey as “too conservative for California” but intentionally elevated his candidacy.

On March 5, Mr Schiff will see whether his strategy will work or whether Ms Porter can eke out a second place.

That primary system is also coming into play in a House seat in the Central Valley that Democrats dearly want to take from the Republican incumbent, Mr David Valadao.

The newly drawn district would have favoured Mr Biden by 13 percentage points in 2020, but before they get a chance to try to win it, Democrats have to contend with one another.

The party’s chosen candidate, a former assembly member named Mr Rudy Salas, is facing a spirited Democratic opponent in Ms Melissa Hurtado, whose state Senate seat mirrors the US House district.

Both want to be the Central Valley’s first Mexican American representative, but if Democratic turnout is low and divided, Mr Valadao could end up facing his Republican challenger, Mr Chris Mathys, in November.

Democrats will have blown one of their few shots to contest a Republican-held seat that favours Mr Biden.

In Texas, an impeached attorney-general seeks revenge

When Mr Ken Paxton, the Republican attorney-general of Texas, was impeached by a state House firmly in control of his own party, it looked like the ultimate non-partisan rebuke.

The Texas House ultimately approved 20 articles of impeachment, by a lopsided vote of 121-23.

These were related to accusations from a former top deputy. He’s accused of abusing his office for the benefit of himself and an Austin real estate investor and campaign donor who was said to have assisted Mr Paxton with home renovations as well as with helping Mr Paxton conduct an extramarital affair. (Mr Paxton declared the allegations false.)

Then in September 2023, after a nine-day trial, the Texas Senate acquitted him. On March 5, Mr Paxton is seeking vengeance on the Republicans who accused him.

Republicans aligned with Mr Paxton or the state’s conservative governor, Mr Greg Abbott, are challenging other Republicans in more than two dozen races. For good measure, Mr Paxton is trying to remake the state’s highest criminal court by unseating three Republican judges who serve on the Court of Criminal Appeals.

If the challengers succeed, the nation’s largest, richest conservative state is likely to shift even further right.

Voters in North Carolina will set up a fierce governor’s race

North Carolina has a peculiar habit of choosing Republican presidential candidates, Republican legislatures – and Democratic governors.

In 2024, with the current Democratic governor, Mr Roy Cooper, term-limited and unable to seek re-election, Republicans hope to break that streak, though primary voters are likely to nominate a candidate who could prolong it.

Mr Mark Robinson, the state’s conservative lieutenant-governor with a history of offensive and polarising comments, including disparaging members of the LGBTQ+ community, appears poised to win the nomination for the top post.

It sets up a contest with the Democrats’ likely choice: a mild-mannered, popular state attorney-general, Mr Josh Stein.

The race will be closely watched. North Carolina narrowly went to Trump in 2020, as Mr Cooper was winning re-election.

Mr Robinson could get a boost from the presidential campaign – or Mr Biden could get a boost from the governor’s race. NYTIMES