News analysis
US denies peace deal brokered between Saudi Arabia and Israel
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Mr John Kirby, who speaks for President Joe Biden’s National Security Council, said that there is no agreed-to set of negotiations.
PHOTO: REUTERS
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LONDON – United States officials have denied media speculation that they have successfully brokered a historic peace deal between Israel, its staunchest ally in the Middle East, and Saudi Arabia, the wealthiest and most influential state in the region.
Reacting to a Wall Street Journal report on Aug 9 claiming that “the broad contours” of such a deal have already been decided,
Mr John Kirby, who speaks for President Joe Biden’s National Security Council, was even more explicit. “There is no agreed-to set of negotiations, and there’s no agreed-to framework” between the Jewish state and Saudi Arabia, he told journalists.
Nonetheless, the Biden administration is investing much effort in brokering this deal.
The United Arab Emirates and Bahrain established diplomatic relations with Israel in 2020,
Saudi Arabia remained aloof from this process if only because, as custodian of Islam’s holiest places, the Saudi King would not risk a deal with Israel that could be interpreted as a betrayal of the Palestine cause.
The Saudis have expressed their readiness to join the Abraham Accords. “Normalisation with Israel is in the interest of the region,” said Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal Ben Farhan last month.
The Americans hope that the normalisation of relations between the Saudis and Israel would boost regional economic cooperation.
Mr Biden’s team also believes that the conclusion of such a deal would cement a regional security structure capable of standing up to Iran.
And then, there is a new twist to US calculations: Washington’s anxiety about growing Chinese influence in the Middle East.
One of the first foreign trips undertaken by Chinese President Xi Jinping after lifting Covid-19 pandemic restrictions at the end of last year was to Saudi Arabia.
The Saudis view China as their best market for oil. In all Western markets, oil consumption is declining.
More significantly, the Saudis have discovered that China could be a future helpful supplier of weapons, particularly of various missile systems that the US is currently reluctant to sell.
The Americans are urging the Saudis to cool their interest in China.
Washington has promised to supply the Saudis with much more advanced weapon systems, provided a Saudi normalisation deal with Israel can be concluded.
The Biden administration argues that it is in Saudi Arabia’s interest to strike a deal with Israel while Mr Biden’s Democrats remain in power in Washington.
But in Congress, many Democrats oppose increased cooperation with the monarchy, criticising its alleged human rights abuses and the war the Saudis have been waging in neighbouring Yemen since 2015.
If a deal with Israel is concluded – Mr Biden’s officials claim – it would be much easier for Washington to get congressional approval for arms sales to the Saudis.
The snag is that the Saudis are demanding a heavy price for their cooperation.
Saudi Arabia wants a formal security guarantee from the US for normalising relations with Israel.
It also wants the Israelis to promise progress in creating a Palestinian homeland.
But the most significant sticking point is a Saudi demand for American help constructing its civilian nuclear programme, including uranium enrichment, on Saudi soil.
“It is no secret that we are developing our national civilian nuclear programme, and we would much rather be able to count the US among the bidders,” Foreign Minister Farhan recently said, warning – in an apparent reference to the increased cooperation between Riyadh and Beijing – that if the Americans are not forthcoming, “others could bid” to provide the kingdom with similar capabilities.
Israel Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu would love to exchange ambassadors with the Saudis. That would deflect attention from his controversial domestic political measures, which have attracted widespread opposition.
But Netanyahu’s far-right governing coalition opposes creating a Palestinian state and is wary of Saudi Arabia’s decision to acquire nuclear capabilities, even for peaceful purposes.
Nor are many members of the US Congress persuaded.
Critics point out that, even if a Saudi-Israel agreement is reached, the challenge of Iran will remain, and the burden on the US to confront it will continue unchanged. Three thousand additional US troops are arriving in the Middle East this week.
And even security experts sympathetic to the Biden administration criticise the White House for seeking to provide Netanyahu with a treaty that may allow him to emerge from his current international isolation.
Still, the White House seems determined to press ahead with brokering an agreement, even if the price that the US is asked to pay by both the Israelis and Saudis for such a deal is increasing daily.
