News analysis
US, China inch closer after a turbulent year in ties
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US President Joe Biden meeting his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in San Francisco in November.
PHOTO: REUTERS
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WASHINGTON - The four-hour meeting between US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping
On Dec 22, the two nations restored military dialogue
Both nations said it was important to keep lines of communication open, according to readouts of the virtual meeting between US General Charles Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and his Chinese counterpart, General Liu Zhenli, a member of the Central Military Commission and the chief of its Joint Staff Department.
A week earlier, President Xi added a tone of cordiality via a congratulatory note
He promised a better business environment in China in which US companies would have new opportunities amid worries that the world’s second-largest economy is struggling to recover from a serious real estate crisis and foreign investors are leaving the country.
Mr Xi also asked the group and its members to “build more bridges for friendly exchange” and expand cooperation.
At the US end, positive signals came from US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who has emerged as a key interlocutor in the unfolding phase of US-China ties. She said she would make her second visit to China in 2024
Her focus will be on sorting out “difficult areas of concern”, she said, providing a preview of her trip’s agenda in a speech before the USCBC.
“There are many areas on which the US and China strongly disagree. There is also always the risk of shocks that impact both of our countries. We seek not to resolve all our disagreements nor avoid all shocks. This is in no way realistic,” she said.
“But we aim to make our communication resilient so that when we disagree, when shocks occur, we prevent misunderstanding from leading to escalation and causing harm.”
Dr Yellen noted progress made in two areas that could smooth the way forward.
One, China was delivering on the commitment it made during the Biden-Xi dialogue in November to curtail fentanyl precursor shipments to Latin America. This will help address a leading cause of death among young Americans.
The other positive was that working groups set up to resolve finance and economy-related issues were meeting regularly.
“It is often well understood that military leaders need to have quick and reliable means of communication to keep a crisis from spiralling out of control,” she said.
“For economic policymakers responding to financial stress, it is also critical to know the counterpart on the other end of the line and be able to make a quick call. To enable this, the US and China will facilitate exchanges between our financial regulators.”
Dr Yellen said it was crucial for the US to understand China’s plans, especially how it intends to respond to challenges and react if unexpected economic weaknesses arise.
Vibes between the two nations are a few degrees warmer now than when the year began. The lowest point in a turbulent year came in February, when the US shot down what it called a Chinese spy balloon
“We are seeing some positive momentum in the sense that the Chinese bureaucracy is empowered and encouraged to engage with the US. We saw, for example, the resumption of military ties at high levels,” said Ms Bonny Lin, a senior fellow for Asian security and director of the China Power Project at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.
Tough issues remain
While the atmospherics were encouraging, she noted that none of the tough issues have fundamentally changed in the relationship, which is characterised more by competition than cooperation.
Taiwan’s Jan 13 elections in 2024 as well as continued tensions over contested maritime territories in the South China Sea, most recently between the Philippines and China, are likely to keep the two rival superpowers on the edge in the Asia-Pacific.
“Both sides are eyeing the next weeks and months cautiously and are wary that whatever emerged from the recent Biden-Xi meeting could be challenged or undermined by dynamics after the Taiwan elections, or we continue to see tensions escalate in the South China Sea,” Ms Lin said.
Mr Rick Waters, managing director of political risk consultancy Eurasia Group’s China practice, said he sensed that things were “on track” after the Biden-Xi meeting.
“Implementation of the fentanyl precursor deal appears under way, but the reopening of military-to-military channels is a bit slower than expected,” he said.
“The bigger questions surround the Taiwan elections in January.”
China has objected to recent US moves to arm Taiwan, including exploring expedited sales of F-16 fighter jets to Taiwan and a green light for US$300 million (S$397 million) worth of equipment to help maintain Taiwan’s tactical information systems.
The US is bound by a law to support Taiwan with “arms of a defensive character”. China claims the self-governed island as its territory.
In China, the resumption of military ties was viewed as a good start in preventing miscalculations and stabilising ties. But the US should not take the restored military communication channels as a sign that there are “no big problems”, Mr Xin Qiang, deputy director of the Centre for American Studies at Fudan University, was quoted as saying by the nationalistic Global Times.
Ties are at a crucial turning point, with exchanges increasing, but uncertainties also remain high, he said.
While such assessments routinely grab headlines, Dr Yellen drew attention to efforts behind the scenes to keep things on an even keel.
“Continuing to stabilise our relationship to prevent escalation won’t make news,” she said.
“But our economies, our people – and, again, also economies and people around the world – will be safer and more secure. This is what it means for the US and China to build and responsibly manage our relationship.”
