ST Explains
Turning the world upside down: Trump’s first month in office
Since he assumed the US presidency for the second time on Jan 20, Mr Donald Trump has made a flurry of moves that have upended the established international order. Assistant foreign editor Arvind Jayaram examines some of these decisions and their impact.
Sign up now: Get ST's newsletters delivered to your inbox
US President Donald Trump has made a flurry of moves that have upended the established international order.
PHOTO: AL DRAGO/NYTIMES
Follow topic:
Economy
The move: Imposed an additional 10 per cent tariff on all Chinese goods. hit back with calibrated measures
The impact: This was just the first salvo fired by the Trump 2.0 administration in the US-China trade war. Beijing
It will also motivate more American companies to look to reduce their China exposure by relocating to other countries.
The move: Imposed a 25 per cent tariff on US imports of steel and aluminium.
The impact: While some affected countries like Canada – one of the US’ top steel suppliers – have vowed to hit back with commensurate trade barriers, the response from others has been muted.
Australia hopes to convince Mr Trump to grant it an exemption.
The move: Announced reciprocal tariffs on any trade measures taken by countries against US imports.
The impact: Mr Trump’s tit-for-tat approach to global trade will fuel inflation in the US, even as it inflicts pain on the economies that refuse to succumb to his demand that they lower tariffs.
But his plans to also view countries’ taxes imposed on US goods, such as goods and services tax or value-added tax, as “similar to that of a tariff” is a red flag for many countries.
The move: Announced, then postponed,
The impact: Canada and Mexico’s swift moves to address US concerns about security and illegal immigration at their shared borders prompted Mr Trump to delay the roll-out of the tariffs for a month.
But both countries have promised retaliatory trade actions of their own,
Crude oil, motor vehicles and machinery are among both Canada and Mexico’s major exports to the US. Canada’s imports from the US are mainly manufactured goods, motor vehicles and parts, while Mexico imports refined petroleum, motor vehicles and parts.
US expansionism
The move: Repeatedly stated that the US should absorb neighbouring Canada as America’s “51st state”.
The impact: Mr Trump has cited economic and defence concerns for wanting the US to take over Canada, and said he will inflict massive economic pain on Canada through tariffs to get his way. However, the latter has vowed tit-for-tat measures to underline that Canada is not for sale.
The move: Said that the US intends to take over the North American territory of Greenland
The impact: Greenland has significant mineral resources, and its strategic location would allow America to monitor and prevent any missile coming towards it from Russia, China or North Korea.
The US leader has proposed to coerce Denmark into handing over the autonomous territory through the use of duties. Greenland is the largest of three constituent parts of the Danish kingdom, which has refused to consider the proposal.
Mr Trump’s demand has raised the hackles of the entire European Union, but its response has so far been muted.
The move: Forcing Chinese companies out of the Panama Canal,
The impact: The US appears to have already been successful in achieving this goal, following a visit by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to Panama on Feb 2.
Following the trip, Panama announced its intent to quit the Belt and Road Initiative, which could result in the exit of Chinese companies from the country. Forty per cent of US container traffic passes through the canal annually, carrying about US$270 billion (S$360 billion) worth of cargo. However, while analysts expect more Latin American countries to come under US pressure over their economic ties to China, they also think that Beijing’s entrenched position there will be hard to dislodge.
Conflicts
The move: Forced Israel and Hamas to enter a ceasefire in Gaza. of developing it into the “Riviera of the Middle East”,
The impact: Mr Trump’s intervention resulted in a cessation of hostilities. But he subsequently outlined his intent for the eviction of Palestinians living in Gaza and for the US to take over the enclave with a goal
The move: Agreed with Russian President Vladimir Putin to start ceasefire talks on Ukraine normalise diplomatic relations following talks in Saudi Arabia.
The impact: After initially indicating that the US would continue to provide support to Ukraine in its war with Russia in return for access to the eastern European country’s mineral resources, Mr Trump abruptly changed tack following a conversation with Mr Putin. The US and Russia have now agreed to
The Ukrainians are fearful that a fifth of their territory could be handed over to Russia, while a worried Europe ponders over the implications for the continent’s security. This has damaged the longstanding view of the US as a reliable security partner for Europe.
International bodies
The move: Told Nato that the US is shifting its focus away from Europe. to raise their military spending.
The impact: At the start of his term, Mr Trump said he would force members of the Nato alliance – an organisation whose chief foe is Russia –
The prospect of tens of thousands of American troops being pulled out of the continent is now a distinct possibility, even as Mr Trump has moved to embolden the Russian President.
The move: Withdrawing the US from the World Health Organisation (WHO).
The impact: The main concern following the US decision to pull out of the WHO – a global body that helps to coordinate the international community’s efforts on health issues – is future funding for the organisation, as America is its major donor. The immediate casualties of Mr Trump’s announcement are likely to be programmes that seek to eradicate diseases like Aids, malaria and tuberculosis, as well as child immunisation programmes.
The move: Pulling the US out of the Paris climate change agreement.
The impact: Mr Trump has pulled out of the landmark climate change pact that sought to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 deg C above pre-industrial levels. The US exit from the deal that entered into force in 2016 has also led to other countries quietly abandoning their climate change goals.
Domestic issues
The move: Mass deportations of illegal immigrants.
The impact: Mr Trump has moved swiftly to implement his campaign promise to deport hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants from the US. The move is hugely popular in the US, even as stories of migrants being shackled and allegedly subjected to abuse on US military planes transporting them back to their countries of origin or third countries stoke outrage.
The move: Creation of a US sovereign wealth fund.
The impact: The US plans to use such a fund to counter Chinese projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative, as well as supercharge investments in the US economy. However, the question of how the US – a country whose sovereign debt stands at over US$36 trillion – will finance the sovereign wealth fund remains unanswered.
The move: A freeze on almost all foreign aid.
The impact: Mr Trump has halted the flow of billions of dollars of US aid intended for emergency food programmes and health, education, development, security assistance and other assistance worldwide, arguing that the money would be better spent on America.
While the decision has been suspended for the time being following a legal challenge, it has nonetheless cast a shadow over the fate of the people who are most dependent on this aid to survive.
