Trump’s art of the ‘peace’ deal for Ukraine and Russia

AUSTIN, Texas – Did President Donald Trump’s unpredictable, unsubtle and transactional diplomacy just produce the beginnings of peace in Ukraine?

It just may have, after

his high-stakes discussions with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky

and a delegation of Europe’s top leaders at the White House on Aug 18.

Next on the cards is a bilateral meeting, bringing Mr Zelensky face to face with Russian President Vladimir Putin, to be followed possibly by a trilateral meeting moderated by Mr Trump, who has acted as the catalyst.

No dates or venues have been disclosed at the beginning of what could be a path fraught with pitfalls. And it is far from certain Mr Putin will actually agree to meet Mr Zelensky. The Russian leader has declined past invitations for a bilateral meeting.

“I am not saying they are going to leave that room best friends,” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a TV interview after the meetings.

“I am not saying they are going to leave that room with a peace deal, but I think the fact that people are now talking to each other, this wasn’t happening for three and a half years.”

As for Ukraine, it seems to be closing in on the security guarantees it needs. That is short of the admission to the Nato military alliance that it has sought, but is proximate enough, with the US and Europe providing weaponry and being open to stationing troops in the country. 

Tough issues remain to be sorted out, like the Russian demand that Ukraine cede large tracts of territory to end the war. But it is a start. 

“We spoke about very sensitive points,” Mr Zelensky said about his closely watched encounter with Mr Trump, calling it a “good conversation”. 

That is a big change from the verbal duel the two leaders engaged in the last time Mr Zelensky was at the White House. At the same time, Mr Trump’s embrace of the Ukrainian cause was not as full-throated as the seven European leaders he hosted.

On the contrary, early on in the live telecast of remarks across the table from the Europeans, he struck a complimentary note towards Mr Putin: “I have always had a great relationship with him. I think President Putin wants to find an answer...”

The European leaders who flew to Washington in solidarity with Mr Zelensky seemed to throw their support behind Mr Trump’s initiative. 

Nato Secretary-General Mark Rutte thanked “dear Donald” for breaking “the deadlock with President Putin by starting the dialogue”.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni called it a “new phase”, while Finnish President Alexander Stubb said there had been “more progress” in the past two weeks than in the past three and a half years.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said: “Nobody has been able to bring it to this point.” 

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz was a little more guarded, although he admitted the breakthrough moment was Mr Trump’s controversial meeting with Mr Putin on Aug 15 in Alaska. “The path is open. You opened it last Friday – but now the way is open for complicated negotiations,” he said.

Mr Trump says the clock is ticking, and a resolution could be shaping up.

Misplaced optimism, perhaps. But the brazenness appears to be paying off.

What Mr Trump has brought to the table is far from what has been associated with American presidents of the past. No grave mien, no signal of resolve and promise of steadiness.

He has most casually dispensed with a diplomat’s tools of perpetual resort – protocol and caution. Mr Trump’s diplomatic niceties are distinctive and unmistakable: Mr Putin got a red carpet and an intimate ride in the presidential limousine at their Aug 15 summit.

Three days later, European leaders were met with more reserve. They were not greeted by the President at the door but instead waved in by the State Department’s chief protocol officer.

Only for Mr Zelensky did Mr Trump stand waiting at the door of the White House. 

It was a change from the uncivil public dressing-down that Mr Zelensky received in February, dressed informally in his trademark military-type fatigues.

Not this time. Mr Zelensky arrived wrapped in a black jacket without a tie but with his shirt buttoned up, reportedly at the behest of the White House. 

But the heat was on Mr Zelensky even before he arrived at the White House.

The night before the talks began, Mr Trump had set out the terms in a Truth Social post that clearly put the Ukrainian in a spot. 

“President Zelensky of Ukraine can end the war with Russia almost immediately, if he wants to, or he can continue to fight. Remember how it started. No getting back Obama given Crimea (12 years ago, without a shot being fired!), and NO GOING INTO NATO BY UKRAINE. Some things never change!!!”

Mr Zelensky has pointed out that previous concessions made to Russia, including in Crimea, which was annexed by Russia during the Obama administration, did not stop Mr Putin from launching the Ukraine invasion in 2022.  

The reality TV-like quality that Mr Trump brings to his diplomacy, live and unscripted, forces everybody to put their cards on the table. 

When it does not blow up spectacularly, like during Mr Zelensky’s last visit, this method can hasten hard decisions. 

Indeed, subtlety has no place in the Trump playbook. A splash, like in Singapore in the 2018 meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, is more the Trump style. If not results, it certainly produces spectacle.

It is diplomacy disrupted. 

Mr Trump’s fans argue that these are extraordinary times, calling for extraordinary measures. Or even that all is fair in love and war. And they would be right; this war has claimed hundreds of thousands of lives. 

With all the drama Mr Trump’s diplomatic dances produce, it is easy to miss the larger strategic picture. 

The softness towards Mr Putin might also have a grander geopolitical aim. The US President could be trying to wean Russia away from its “no limits” partnership with China,

in effect engineering a Nixon in reverse.

While Mr Trump did not arrive in the White House with the reputation of a grand strategist, his actions over the past months do indeed suggest that he is trying to prise Russia loose from the Chinese embrace. After all, Russia is the junior partner in the alliance, something that Mr Putin is thought to resent.

If Mr Putin is indeed harking back to the era of Soviet power and consequence, he may appreciate Mr Trump’s gesture to escape China’s ever-lengthening shadow. 

The result of Mr Trump’s live, on-the-record diplomacy might not be long in coming, according to the US President himself.

“Not very far from now, a week or two weeks, we are going to know whether or not we solve this,” Mr Trump said on Aug 18, looking across the table from the European leaders as Mr Zelensky shuffled papers in front of him.

“I believe we have two willing parties. And usually, that is good news.”