Trump urges Beijing to quadruple soya bean orders as deadline for US-China trade truce looms

US President Donald Trump on Aug 10 urged China to quadruple its soya bean purchases ahead of a key tariff truce deadline, sending Chicago soya bean prices higher, though analysts were quick to question the feasibility of any such deal.

In a late night post on Truth Social, Mr Trump said China was worried about a shortage of soya beans and he hoped it would quickly quadruple its soya bean orders from the US.

“Rapid service will be provided. Thank you President Xi,” Mr Trump said in his post.

The most active soya bean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) jumped 2.38 per cent to US$10.11 (S$13) a bushel on Aug 11 after Mr Trump’s post. The contract was steady earlier.

China, the world’s largest soya bean buyer, imported roughly 105 million tonnes (105 billion killiograms) in 2024, just under a quarter coming from the US and most of the remainder from Brazil. Quadrupling shipments would require China to import the bulk of its soya beans from the US.

“It’s highly unlikely that China would ever buy four times its usual volume of soya beans from the US,” said Mr Johnny Xiang, founder of Beijing-based AgRadar Consulting.

A tariff truce between Beijing and Washington is set to expire on Aug 12, but the Trump administration has hinted that the deadline may be extended. It is unclear if securing China’s agreement to buy more US soya beans is a condition for extending the truce as Mr Trump looks to reduce China’s trade surplus with the US.

China’s soya meal futures fell 0.65 per cent to 3,068 yen per tonne on expectations US imports could increase supply.

China’s Ministry of Commerce did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.

Under the phase one trade deal signed during Mr Trump’s first term, China agreed to boost purchases of US agricultural products, including soya beans. However, Beijing fell far short of meeting those targets.

This year, amid Washington–Beijing trade tensions, it has yet to buy any fourth quarter US beans, fuelling concerns as the US harvest export season approaches.

“On Beijing’s side, there have been quite a few signals that China is prepared to forego US soya beans altogether in 2025, including booking those test cargoes of soymeal from Argentina,” said Mr Even Rogers Pay, an agricultural analyst at Trivium China.

Reuters previously reported that Chinese feedmakers have purchased three Argentine soya meal cargoes as they aim to secure cheaper South American supplies amid concerns about a possible soya bean supply disruption in the fourth quarter.

US soya bean industry has been seeking alternative buyers, but no other country matches China’s scale. In 2024, China imported 22.13 million tonnes of soya beans from the US, and 74.65 million tonnes from Brazil. REUTERS