Trump, tech and Texas: What’s next for the US?

AUSTIN, Texas – Friends in Washington warned me that I was going to Texas at exactly the wrong time and season – that Austin was going to be uncomfortably hot and sticky. 

Being a transplant from Singapore, that scared me not at all.

But they were right. Texas is hot all right.

It is smack-dab in the middle of a political fight, instrumental in either keeping US President Donald Trump’s hold on power or weakening it midway into

his term in the 2026 congressional elections.

The Lone Star state’s economy also runs hot; it is the fire underneath the bubbling pot of the national economy.

Record numbers of businesses flock here every year, contributing to its gross domestic product of more than US$2.6 trillion (S$3.3 trillion), making it a larger economy than Canada, South Korea or Australia.

For 13 straight years, Texas has led the nation in job-creating projects. But while the numbers are impressive, they do not tell the whole story. 

To grasp Texas, skip the stats and simply look around Austin. The state capital has an unsettled air, like the city itself is on the move, hurrying into a future hastily imagined.

More than US$20 billion in new projects is reshaping its skyline, reinventing neighbourhoods, workspaces, shopping areas and parks.

On the somewhat unkempt roads, it feels as though the future, too, is hurrying to find a foothold amid the ruins of the past.

At a traffic junction, I saw a motorist honk at a Waymo robotaxi when it waited a beat too long after the traffic light turned green. 

The sight is a little unsettling: There is no one behind the wheel of the medium-sized car. The traffic is heavy.

The driverless car moves forward in a smooth motion, with no jerks or starts, almost like a tracking shot in a movie.

A head is visible from behind, a lone passenger in the back seat.

It would not be the first time that a frontier spirit is shaping the next chapter of the American story.

Redistricting the red wall

Texas is Trump country, maybe even more than a Republican one.

The state has voted red in every presidential election since 1980. But Mr Trump’s 2024 victory was still special as it set the record for the most votes ever – more than six million – received by a presidential candidate in Texas.

And now, as he exerts the power of his office to recast the US in his own image, Mr Trump is counting on a Texas “wall” that will prevent the Democrats from stymieing his agenda.

“We’re entitled to five more seats,” Mr Trump declared in early August, calling on Texan Republicans to redraw congressional district boundaries to build on the party’s advantage in the US House of Representatives.

The Republicans currently hold a slim majority of five seats in the House.

A redistricting exercise can potentially add five more

by improving the chances of flipping Democrat-held seats.

Redistricting is done every decade to keep up with population shifts. Texas last refreshed district boundaries in 2021 and no law prevents a do-over.

There is no mystery about the political urgency behind the push. It is designed to ensure that Mr Trump can spend his final two years in office with Congress at his back instead of in his way. 

The Democrats, who would then need a much larger national vote shift to win the House, are putting up quite a fight.

The week after I arrived in Austin, state Democratic legislators fled to other states to deny the Texas government a quorum to hold the session to effect redistricting. 

Governor Greg Abbott asked them to “come back and fight like Texans” and threatened to arrest or remove them from office if they did not return to the legislature.

They are still away. 

The seriousness of the effort serves to underscore Mr Trump’s sway in the state.

But redistricting is by no means a foolproof endeavour.

The infamous “midterm effect” may just be too strong to be stopped by a few lines redrawn on the electoral map. It is almost a law in US politics that the party holding the presidency loses seats in midterm elections. 

The Democrats, however, are not well placed to take advantage of an anti-incumbency wave.

The party is in disarray, leaderless and dispirited by the sweeping changes being pushed through by the White House.

Still, the prospect of gains in the midterms may push them to campaign harder, knock on more doors and pump more flesh.

It is also possible that the moment of crisis throws up a leader who can seize it. 

There is some hope, in progressive corners of the party, about a new Democratic star rising in the east. Mr Zohran Mamdani, a young politician with an easy manner and the ability to “connect” with people, is the runaway favourite to win the New York City mayoral election set for Nov 4 and become its first Muslim mayor. 

The 33-year-old is being celebrated with the same fervour I saw in 2008 for the young Barack Obama in his presidential campaign.

But Mr Mamdani will have to prove himself as mayor, and it would be unusual if a New York liberal emerged as the voice of Middle America.

If nothing changes before 2026, the outcome of the midterms could come down to redistricting.

Indeed, the Texas effort has set off a national scramble. California and at least six other states have said they will also look at redrawing congressional maps in a fight for the “future of the republic”.

In sum, Texas is at the heart of what is becoming a soul-searching on the national scale: How much is power worth, and what will you do to keep it?

Mr Trump’s answer seems to be: everything, and anything.

For him, all roads to 2026 run through Texas.

Testing ground

It is easy to spot the poster child of the Texan economy from afar.

The distinctive long, flat roof of Tesla chief executive Elon Musk’s Gigafactory, its solar panels glinting in the sun, is unmissable from the window of a plane landing at Austin airport.

It is what many Austinites point at, with pride, as a symbol of the state’s tech cred and future-oriented economy. 

The factory reportedly employs around 20,000 – with the average annual wage standing at US$74,000 – and boosts local skill sets, start-ups and suppliers. Seen as a prime example of government and private industry partnership, it is a calling card for the successful Texas mix of the low-tax, low-regulation climate. 

Above all, it is proof that the US still makes things – that it still has a future in manufacturing.

“You’ve got to see it,” said my hairdresser, although she said it had made traffic worse in her area and added pointedly that she could not afford a Tesla even if she took on a second job. 

At the very least, the Texas experience suggests that tech might not remain a West Coast thing.

California might still host tech’s brain trust, but Texas is its muscle – building big and furious.

The explosion of data centres makes that point. The state now ranks second, only behind Virginia, in erecting the physical infrastructure for artificial intelligence (AI). 

The mother of them all is Stargate, a US$500 billion project backed by OpenAI, Oracle and SoftBank.

Coming up in Abilene, a three-hour drive from Austin, it is a strategic bet on US leadership in AI.

It is also Texas claiming ownership of the 21st century’s great tech frontier. 

More in your face – or at least in your lane – are the driverless taxis in Austin. With its permissive regulatory environment, the city is quickly becoming a testing ground for tomorrow’s mobility. 

The pioneer Waymo, Alphabet’s autonomous vehicle (AV) arm, operates more than 100 self-driving vehicles which can be ordered on the Uber app. Tesla’s pilot robotaxi project, with a smaller fleet of Model Y cars, is about to go commercial in September. Amazon’s Zoox and Volkswagen’s van-like AVs also have a presence. 

While AI and AVs speak of the state’s embrace of the future, oil still holds sway, funding politics, culture and the very sense of the state’s self-reliance.

The state has a reputation for friendliness towards people seeking a fresh start – nearly one in five residents is an immigrant.

But there is also some wariness of outsiders who do not share the state’s narratives. 

A leader in Mr Mamdani’s mould will elicit a limited welcome here. Except perhaps in Austin, the famously liberal capital of a conservative state that proudly embraces its “weirdness” and wants to remain the last holdout against the advancing tide of sameness.

Texans cherish their distinct identity – think cowboy hats, boots and guitars, Tex-Mex spices and, yes, guns.

They also sport a chip on their shoulder: When they joined the union in 1845, they were already the Republic of Texas. They feel more than equal, it is often said, unwilling to be overshadowed.

For now, Mr Trump sees the state as the lock on the door to keep his agenda safe.

For the rest of the country, it’s a reminder that scale, pragmatism and the will to act are still the forces shaping the US story.

And like with every good Texas story, there is a sense that the real ending has not been written yet.