Trump says Texas Republican battle must end for Senate win

Three Texas Republicans fought a bruising primary race to claim a US Senate seat, only to see March 3’s election force two of them – Senator John Cornyn and Attorney-General Ken Paxton – into a costly run-off. 

Now President Donald Trump is vowing to put an end to it. 

On March 4, Mr Trump acknowledged the damage a drawn-out primary battle could take on the GOP, saying on social media that the Texas race “cannot, for the good of the Party” be “allowed to go on any longer. IT MUST STOP NOW!”

The president promised to make an endorsement, something he has long resisted, and said he would be “asking the candidate that I don’t Endorse to immediately DROP OUT OF THE RACE!”

That move will leave Mr Cornyn and Mr Paxton making their last-minute pitches to the President for support. Democrats have hoped to run against Mr Paxton, a controversial figure among Republicans in Texas, but may have to settle for the incumbent Mr Cornyn. 

Whoever emerges from that battle will face off against Mr James Talarico, a Texas state lawmaker who bested US House Representative Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic primary.

Voters chose the candidate who focused on broadening the party’s tarnished brand with independents and disaffected Republicans, over a progressive rising star who has gained a following for her confrontations with Mr Trump and his GOP allies.

Mr Talarico, in his first speech after the primary win, pledged to build a campaign that could win support from swing voters as well as moderate Republicans turned off by Mr Trump.

“If you have voted for Democrats, but you’re tired of D.C. Democrats always folding, you have a home in this campaign,” Mr Talarico told supporters.

“And if you voted for Donald Trump, but you are fed up with the extremism and the corruption in our government, you also have a home in this campaign.”

Bitter feud

A Cornyn-Paxton showdown would extend what has been a historically expensive and bitterly personal GOP feud, with Cornyn allies blasting Mr Paxton as a scandal-plagued threat to lose the seat, while the attorney-general has slammed the senator as an insufficiently conservative creature of Washington. 

With Mr Trump worried about losing one or both houses of Congress in November, he said the stakes in the race were too high to give Mr Talarico time to consolidate support.

“We have an easy to beat, Radical Left Opponent, and we have to TOTALLY FOCUS on putting him away, quickly and decisively!” 

The Atlantic reported that Mr Trump’s advisers anticipate he will endorse Mr Cornyn given the stakes involved, the senator’s performance in the primary and how much money would be required by Mr Paxton to defeat Mr Talarico.

Mr Talarico will not have any easy climb: Democrats have not won statewide office in Texas for more than three decades. Senate challengers have never come within nine points of beating Mr Cornyn, who was first elected to the Senate in 2002.

Mr Paxton, in an interview on March 4 with Real America’s Voice, said he will not drop out even if Mr Trump endorses his opponent. 

“I’m staying in this race,” Mr Paxton said. “I owe it to the people of Texas.” 

The Republican primary has served as a microcosm of the tension playing out within the Republican party ahead of November’s midterms, as GOP voters decide whether to back unabashed allies of Mr Trump or instead support candidates who are more likely to draw bipartisan support. 

“It’s going to be an all-out war with our incumbent senator, John Cornyn,” Texas State Representative Mitch Little, a Paxton ally, told supporters at a rally on March 3 in Dallas before Mr Trump’s announcement.

Mr Paxton entered the race as the favourite, but Mr Cornyn and his allies spent months – and tens of millions of dollars – narrowing Mr Paxton’s lead with a barrage of advertisements attacking his personal life and long history of controversy – including an impeachment led by the Republican-dominated Texas House of Representatives, accusations of using his office to benefit a political donor and allegations of an extramarital affair. 

“We proved something they will never understand in Washington. Texas is not for sale,” Mr Paxton said on the evening of March 3, criticising Mr Cornyn. “When he compromised, we fought. It’s not about personal attacks, it’s about what your record of delivering for the people of Texas is.”

Mr Cornyn, a four-term senator, secured endorsements from business groups and elected officials, including the powerful National Republican Senatorial Committee, and has the backing of deep-pocketed donors, including Blackstone’s Stephen Schwarzman, Walmart heirs Rob Walton and Jim Walton, Roku founder Anthony Wood and Palantir’s Alex Karp.

“I refuse to allow a flawed, self-centred and shameless candidate like Ken Paxton risk everything we’ve worked so hard to build,” Mr Cornyn told supporters the night of March 3, adding that “judgment day” is coming for his opponent.

Representative Wesley Hunt also entered the Republican race, but failed to mount a serious challenge, placing a distant third.

Even without Mr Trump’s endorsement in the primary, the President loomed large in the contest, with about two-thirds of television ads aired by Republicans mentioning him.

Each candidate claimed the mantle of the President’s Make America Great Again movement for himself or accused his opponents of not supporting the White House’s policies. 

A Paxton ad criticising Mr Cornyn for receiving praise from Ms Crockett for being willing to work with her featured AI-generated versions of the pair dancing together. A spot from Mr Cornyn’s camp hammered Mr Paxton over his divorce and personal ethics.

With more than US$130 million (S$165.9 million) spent on advertising alone, the primary is the most expensive on record, according to AdImpact. The Republican share is US$99.5 million, with US$78 million supporting Mr Cornyn or attacking his opponents. 

Even with a Trump endorsement, Mr Talarico’s win may force Republicans to throw more resources towards Texas, an expensive state to campaign in with several major media markets, that otherwise might have been used to defend other key Senate seats in places such as North Carolina, Ohio, and Maine. 

The results of the Democratic primary also potentially contain some concerning trends for Republicans. Mr Talarico’s win was cemented by big wins in heavily Hispanic counties, running up 2-1 margins in several counties along the Rio Grande River from El Paso to Hidalgo, while holding down Ms Crockett’s margins in major cities like Houston.

Those voters, many of them first- and second-generation immigrants to the US, will be key to Democrats’ hopes for winning in the state in November.

Hispanic voters moved heavily to Mr Trump in 2024. However, polls and recent off-year elections have shown movement back to Democrats amid wide concerns about the economy and affordability issues, as well as the severity of the President’s aggressive immigration enforcement push.

Mr Talarico has leaned into religious language to connect with moderate and churchgoing voters in a state where faith plays an outsize role in politics. He has also shown a penchant for being able to raise money from major Democratic donors.

LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman, Stephen Mandel of Lone Pine Capital and musician Don Henley were among contributors to his super political action committee.

While he struggled with Black voters in the primary against Ms Crockett, her endorsement could help him against a Republican opponent. Former Vice-President Kamala Harris, who backed Ms Crockett, came out to support Mr Talarico on March 4. BLOOMBERG