Trump puts US allies on notice: Power comes first

WASHINGTON - With his flailing of Ukraine’s leader, US President Donald Trump is making clearer than ever that he cares more about power than friends – a chilling message for America’s global network of allies.

In the eight decades since World War II, the United States has sought to lead a global order by promoting international rules and ensuring the security of democracies in Europe and East Asia as well as oil-rich Gulf Arab monarchies.

US presidents, self-proclaimed “leaders of the free world”, have dropped or weakened support to dependent partners before, including Afghanistan, South Vietnam and, when forging relations with Beijing, Taiwan.

Still, there was little precedent for

the dramatic, on-camera rupture on March 28 in the Oval Office

in which Mr Trump and Vice-President J.D. Vance berated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has relied on Western support to

withstand a three-year Russian invasion.

Mr Vance accused Mr Zelensky of ingratitude for billions of dollars in US assistance, and Mr Trump threw a spotlight on the US ally’s weakness, telling him angrily: “You don’t have the cards.”

Mr Trump had days earlier declared that he was making a “decisive break” with past US foreign policy, which he described as “foolish” and responsible for “the deaths of many, many people”.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called for the US to act like Russia and China in pursuing self-interest first – a contrast to former president Joe Biden, who prioritised alliances as a force multiplier for US influence.

‘Profound shift’ on democracy

Mr Trump has long described North Atlantic Treaty Organisation allies as trade competitors who freeload off the US military, although last week he voiced support for the alliance’s mutual defence commitment.

He

mocked Mr Zelensky as a “dictator”

for not holding elections since the invasion, while praising Mr Vladimir Putin, who has been president or prime minister of Russia for 25 years.

Mr Trump has also refused to rule out military force to seize Greenland and the Panama Canal, saying that the US – not unlike Russia – should take what it wants.

While Washington’s championing of democracy has “rightly been accused of hypocrisy, now there’s not even any pretence that the United States is upholding those values”, said Mr Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia and Eurasia programme at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

“I think that’s going to be very bad for nascent democracies around the world, for democratic movements and for human rights. So I think this is a really profound shift in the international global order,” he said.

Mr Bergmann said that Trump was also providing a “real opening” to rival China.

“The United States has been trying to convince countries that when you do deals with China, that China could betray you,” Mr Bergmann said.

“Well, here’s the United States essentially doing the ultimate betrayal, or completely switching sides, and stopping to support a democracy at war.”

Message on Taiwan?

European leaders immediately spoke of ramping up defence without the United States.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said a “new age of infamy has begun” after the “unspeakable” scene in the White House.

Among places to feel the greatest jolt: former Soviet bloc nations that eagerly joined Nato as protection against Moscow, and Taiwan, the self-governing democracy claimed by Beijing.

Mr Trump said on March 3 that a Chinese invasion would be a “catastrophic event” as Taiwanese chipmaking giant Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) announced US$100 billion (S$134 billion) of investment in the US.

Ms Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific programme, said Taiwan “has reason to be nervous.”

Unlike Ukraine, which has backing from nearly all of Europe, Taiwan relies for weapons exclusively on the US.

But she said the economic stakes also made the situations different and pointed to Taiwan’s influence as the world’s foremost chipmaker and a major investor.

In the words of Mr Trump to Mr Zelensky, “Taiwan has cards”, Ms Glaser said – though the US President himself said on March 3 that the TSMC deal could mitigate that slightly.

Associate Professor Joshua Rovner, a political scientist at American University, said Mr Trump sees uncertainty as part of his strategy and in his first term, despite criticising Europe, actually raised US troop levels on the continent.

“Trump’s language you can interpret in a million different ways,” Mr Rovner said.

“What really matters is what he ultimately does with US forces.” AFP