Trump posted unpublished US jobs data early in social media post

WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump posted a chart on social media on the evening of Jan 8 that included figures in the yet-to-be released December employment report.

The chart, which showed the private sector added 654,000 jobs “since January,” matched figures that were not publicly published until 8.30am in Washington on Jan 9.

It was posted on Truth Social about 12 hours before the data was set to be released.

The US jobs data, published by the Bureau of Labour Statistics, are among the most closely guarded economic statistics and can move markets by trillions of dollars.

However, trading in the bond and stock markets as well as Polymarket betting after the president’s post and before the release of the jobs report did not indicate a flurry of activity.

A White House official confirmed that there was an “inadvertent” public disclosure that partially derived from pre-released information. The official added that the administration is reviewing protocols for economic releases.

BLS, as well as the Labour Department, which oversees the statistical agency, did not respond to requests for comment.

The president and his economic team are typically briefed on the jobs report the day before the numbers are published. Employees from the executive branch are not allowed to comment on the figures until they’ve been out for 30 minutes to give the public time to process the policy-neutral statistics before the administration weighs in with its interpretation.

Bloomberg News calculated the private payrolls gain from January through November was 687,000 using data publicly available as of Jan 8. Jan 9’s report showed December private payrolls came in weaker than expected and included downward revisions to October and November hiring.

The report also showed that total nonfarm payrolls, which include government employment, missed forecasts as well last month and capped one of the weakest years for hiring since 2009.

Although Mr Trump’s post did not disclose the specific payrolls figure for December, it could have hinted to investors that hiring at the end of last year was weaker than previously thought.

The breach may add to what’s been a loss of trust in US government data and intensify concerns that what’s meant to be nonpartisan information is being politicised. It also risks spurring confusion around the data and creating more market volatility, said Ms Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG.

“We want a level playing field as much as possible, and this removes that,” Ms Swonk said.

“Anyone who is in the market is now going to be checking the president’s posts for clues to economic data the night prior.”

Mr Bharat Kumar, who works at the financial firm Futures First just outside New Delhi, spotted the discrepancy in Mr Trump’s post on the night of Jan 8.

“The math wasn’t adding up to my estimates,” he said. “I was just scratching my head, wondering whether the official numbers printed on Bloomberg were wrong or whether this tweet had some issues.”

The president’s post included a graphic that cited the BLS and calculations by the White House Council of Economic Advisers.

Mr Kumar assumed the post must have included numbers that had not yet been released, which appeared to be the case on the morning of Jan 9 when the December report published. He shared his observation in a post on X that was widely circulated.

It’s not the first time Mr Trump hasn’t adhered to protocol. In his first term, he tweeted that he was “looking forward” to seeing the jobs report an hour before it was released, which traders interpreted as a signal that the numbers would be positive. That was in fact the case, as payrolls in May 2018 beat forecasts and the unemployment rate dropped. BLOOMBERG