Trump-led gambit to redraw electoral map in Texas ignites national race to control Congress

HOUSTON - The escalating political fight over the Texas congressional map is spreading through other states across the US, triggering an unprecedented mid-decade redistricting arms race with the balance of power in Washington at stake.

At US President Donald Trump’s urging, Texas Republicans have proposed new congressional districts aimed at flipping five Democrat-held US House seats in the 2026 midterm polls, further skewing what is already considered a deeply partisan map in that state.

In response, Democratic governors elsewhere – most notably Mr Gavin Newsom of California, the only state with more congressional districts than Texas – have threatened to retaliate by mounting their own redistricting efforts.

“Donald Trump is a cheater, and so is Governor Greg Abbott,” Mr J.B. Pritzker, the Democratic governor of Illinois, told reporters on Aug 5. Standing alongside him were several Democratic lawmakers from Texas who fled their home state on Aug 4 to deny Republicans a quorum and prevent a vote on the proposed new map. 

“As far as I’m concerned, everything is on the table,” he said.

Democrats need to flip only three Republican-held seats to retake the majority in the 435-seat House in 2026, so even modest gains for either party via redistricting could prove decisive. If Democrats win the House, they could stymie much of Mr Trump’s legislative agenda and pursue multiple probes into his administration.

The practice of partisan gerrymandering – manipulating district lines to benefit one party over another – has a long tradition in the US, but the advent of powerful software and sophisticated voter data has allowed map-makers to drill down to individual streets and neighbourhoods.

Redistricting typically occurs every 10 years to incorporate the US census count. Mr Trump has broken with that convention by openly pushing Texas Republicans to pursue a rare mid-decade redistricting for partisan gain, even though the existing map, which Republicans drew just four years ago, resulted in the party winning 25 of the state’s 38 seats.

“I won Texas. I got the highest vote in the history of Texas, as you probably know, and we are entitled to five more seats,” Mr Trump told CNBC on Aug 5, referring to the 2024 presidential election.

Mr Trump has encouraged other Republican states to follow suit. A senior White House official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters last week that the administration believes as many as five states could redraw their maps, including Florida, where Governor Ron DeSantis has expressed a willingness to take such a step.

Democrats vow to fight back

Ohio Republicans will draw a new map ahead of the November 2026 election, which could flip at least two Democratic seats. In Missouri, where Democrats hold two of the state’s seven seats, some Republican lawmakers have had preliminary conversations about a new map, according to a source familiar with the matter.

Other Republican-controlled states that could, in theory, use redistricting to target Democrats include Kansas, Kentucky and New Hampshire.

Democrats, meanwhile, face some legal hurdles in their biggest states. In California, where redistricting is overseen by an independent commission, voters would likely have to approve giving Democratic lawmakers the power to draw a new map. 

Mr Newsom said on Aug 4 that he would put the issue before voters this autumn if Texas moved forward. Experts say a Democratic-drawn map could easily target five Republican incumbents, even though Democrats already hold 43 of the state’s 52 seats.

New York Governor Kathy Hochul said on Aug 4 that she would not “fight with my hand tied behind my back”. Even so, any new map in her state would require voters to approve a constitutional amendment, and that process cannot take place before 2026.

In Illinois, where Mr Pritzker and the Democratic-controlled legislature have no restraints, Democrats already hold 14 of the state’s 17 US House seats, leaving them without much room to manoeuvre.

Threats to Texas Democrats

Meanwhile, Texas Governor Greg Abbott filed an emergency lawsuit on Aug 5 asking the state Supreme Court to remove state Representative Gene Wu, the House Democratic caucus chair, from office, arguing he abandoned his seat by fleeing the state.

Mr Wu did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Earlier this week, he brushed off Mr Abbott’s threat to seek Democrats’ removal, calling it “all bluster” and daring him to “come and take it” in an interview on CNN. Republican Attorney-General Ken Paxton said he would seek similar court orders against other Democratic lawmakers.

Law professor David Froomkin from the University of Houston noted that the Texas Supreme Court had previously ruled that lawmakers have the constitutional right to break a quorum.

“Courts have generally taken the view that a legislator has surrendered their seat when they have chosen to surrender their seat,” he said. “Here, they’re not intending to vacate their offices – they’re exercising their offices by trying to prevent the passage of legislation they find troubling.” 

Mr Abbott’s lawsuit follows warrants issued by the Republican Speaker of the Texas House of Representatives, Mr Dustin Burrows, for the authorities to bring the absent lawmakers back to the statehouse for a vote. Mr Abbott has ordered state law enforcement to help enforce them.

But the Democrats have all left the state, putting them beyond the reach of any state agency. Mr Trump told reporters late on Aug 5 that the Federal Bureau of Investigation “may have” to get involved in forcing Democrats back to Texas. REUTERS