Trump leads in 5 key states, as young and non-white voters express discontent with Biden

WASHINGTON – Former president Donald Trump leads incumbent Joe Biden in five crucial battleground states, a new set of polls shows, as a yearning for change and discontent over the economy and the Israel-Hamas war among young, black and Hispanic voters threaten to unravel the President’s Democratic coalition.

The surveys by The New York Times, Siena College and The Philadelphia Inquirer found that Trump was ahead among registered voters in a head-to-head match-up against Mr Biden in five of six key states: Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania. Mr Biden led among registered voters in only one battleground state – Wisconsin.

The race was closer among likely voters. Trump led in five states as well, but Mr Biden edged ahead in Michigan while trailing only narrowly in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. While Mr Biden won all six of those states in 2020, victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin would be enough for him to win re-election, provided he won everywhere else that he did four years ago.

The results were similar in a hypothetical match-up that included minor-party candidates and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr, who won an average of 10 per cent of the vote across the six states and drew roughly equally from the two major-party candidates.

The findings are mostly unchanged since

the last series of Times/Siena polls in battleground states

in November. Since then, the stock market has gained 25 per cent, Trump’s criminal trial in New York has started, and the Biden campaign has unleashed tens of millions of dollars in advertisements across the battleground states.

The polls offer little indication that any of these developments have helped Mr Biden, hurt Trump or quelled the electorate’s discontent. Instead, the surveys show that the cost of living, immigration, the war in the Gaza Strip, and a desire for change continue to be a drag on the President’s standing.

While Mr Biden benefited from a burst of momentum in the wake of his State of the Union address in March, he continues to trail in the average of national and battleground state polls.

They want to rock the boat

The findings reveal widespread dissatisfaction with the state of the country and serious doubts about Mr Biden’s ability to deliver major improvements to American life.

A majority of voters still desire a return to normalcy promised by Mr Biden in the last campaign, but voters in battleground states remain particularly anxious, unsettled and itching for change. Nearly 70 per cent of voters say the country’s political and economic systems need major changes – or even to be torn down entirely.

Only a sliver of Mr Biden’s supporters – just 13 per cent – believe the President would bring major changes in his second term, while even many of those who dislike Trump grudgingly acknowledge that he would shake up an unsatisfying status quo.

The sense that Mr Biden would do little to improve the nation’s fortunes has helped erode his standing among young, black and Hispanic voters, who usually represent the foundation of any Democratic path to the presidency.

The Times/Siena polls found that the three groups wanted fundamental changes to American society, not just a return to normalcy, and few believed Mr Biden would make even minor changes that would be good for the country.

Trump and Mr Biden are essentially tied among 18-to-29-year-olds and Hispanic voters, even though each group gave Mr Biden more than 60 per cent of their vote in 2020. Trump also wins more than 20 per cent of black voters – a tally that would be the highest level of black support for any Republican presidential candidate since the enactment of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.

The polls suggest that Trump’s strength among young and non-white voters has at least temporarily upended the electoral map, with Trump surging to a significant lead in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada – relatively diverse Sun Belt states where black and Hispanic voters propelled Mr Biden to signature victories in the 2020 election.

Mr Biden nonetheless remains within striking distance. He has maintained most of his support among older and white voters, who are much less likely to demand fundamental changes to the system and far likelier to say that democracy is the most important issue for their vote. As a result, Mr Biden is more competitive in the three relatively white Northern swing states: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The disengaged, disaffected and disillusioned

The economy and the cost of living, however, remain the most important issues for one-quarter of voters – and a significant drag on Mr Biden’s prospects. More than half of voters

still believe the economy is “poor”

, down merely 1 percentage point since November despite cooling inflation, an end to interest rate increases, and significant stock market gains.

With less than six months to go until the election, there is still time for an improving economy to lift Mr Biden’s standing.

Historically, polls at this early stage have not been necessarily indicative of the outcome, and Trump’s breakthrough among traditionally Democratic young, black and Hispanic voters may not rest on a solid foundation. His strength is concentrated among irregular, disengaged voters who do not pay close attention to politics and may not yet be tuned into the race. They may be prone to shift their views as the race gets under way.

A bigger challenge for Mr Biden than disengaged voters may be the disaffected and the disillusioned – those who desire fundamental changes to American society, or who believe the political and economic systems need to be torn down altogether. Not long ago, these anti-system voters might have been reliably Democratic, but Trump’s anti-establishment populist brand of conservatism has flipped the usual political dynamic.

Around 70 per cent of voters believe Trump will either bring major changes to the political or economic system, or tear down the systems altogether, compared with 24 per cent who expect the same from Mr Biden. And while many voters express deep reservations about Trump personally, 43 per cent of voters believe he will bring good changes to the country, compared with 35 per cent who think the changes will be bad.

Trump fares especially well among those who believe that the political and economic systems ought to be torn down – a group that represents about 15 per cent of registered voters. He leads among these anti-system voters by 32 points, and the tear-it-down voters are especially likely to have defected from the President. In contrast, Mr Biden retains nearly all of his 2020 supporters who believe only minor changes are necessary.

These change voters are not necessarily demanding a more ideologically progressive agenda. In the last Times/Siena poll of the same states, 11 per cent of registered voters thought Mr Biden was not progressive or liberal enough. And while many left-leaning voters want major changes, relatively few of those voters are defecting from Mr Biden.

The war in Gaza

One exception is

Israel’s war in Gaza

, an issue on which most of Mr Biden’s challenge appears to come from his left. Around 13 per cent of voters who say they voted for Mr Biden the last time, but do not plan to do so again, said his foreign policy, or the war in Gaza, was the most important issue to their vote. Just 17 per cent of those voters reported sympathising with Israel over the Palestinians.

Mr Gerard Willingham, 30, works as a web administrator and lives in Riverdale, Georgia. He voted for Mr Biden in 2020, but plans to vote for a third-party candidate in November because of the President’s response to the conflict in Gaza – the issue Mr Willingham cares about the most right now.

“I think it’s made quite a bit of difference in that it made me more heavily than in the past push towards voting for a third party, even if I feel that the candidates almost 100 per cent won’t win,” Mr Willingham said. “It’s starting to reach into my moral conscience, I guess.”

Trump’s trial in Manhattan, on charges that he falsified business records related to a hush-money payment to cover up an affair with porn actor Stormy Daniels, was already under way when the polls began in late April.

However, the survey offered little indication that the trial had damaged the former president’s political fortunes, at least so far. Just 29 per cent of voters in battleground states said they were paying “a lot” of attention to Trump’s legal woes, and 35 per cent thought that the trial was likely to end in a conviction. NYTIMES