Trump hoped for a celebration but did not have much to cheer

PALM BEACH, Florida – Mr Donald Trump wasn’t on the ballot on Tuesday, but he has spent the past two years behaving otherwise, aiming to deliver key victories to a Republican Party from which he is likely to seek, once again, a presidential nomination.

Several battleground races remained too close to call early on Wednesday, but it was clear there would be no “giant red wave” that Mr Trump had spent weeks pleading with his supporters to deliver.

In some key states, Trump-backed candidates lost or were faring poorly. In Pennsylvania, the Democrat Josh Shapiro won the governor’s race against the Republican Doug Mastriano, while the Democrat John Fetterman defeated Dr Mehmet Oz, a Republican, to flip control of a US Senate seat. In Michigan, Ms Tudor Dixon, Mr Trump’s pick in the governor’s race, came up short in her bid to unseat Governor Gretchen Whitmer.

In Arizona, where Ms Kari Lake and Mr Blake Masters campaigned together as “America First” candidates in Mr Trump’s mould, both were behind in their races for governor and Senate, respectively, although results were too close to call.

Some of Mr Trump’s candidates fared well, such as Mr J.D. Vance, the Republican Senate nominee in Ohio. And the candidate in whom Mr Trump was most personally invested, former football player Herschel Walker, whose Senate candidacy in Georgia has been rocked by allegations that he encouraged women to have abortions that he paid for, appeared poised to force a runoff.

One of the party’s biggest victories of the night came in Florida,

where Governor Ron DeSantis won reelection

with margins that Republicans have not seen there in two decades.

Unlike four years ago, when Mr Trump’s endorsement helped lift Mr DeSantis’ underdog campaign, the governor didn’t seek the former president’s help for reelection. Mr DeSantis was the target of a derisive nickname from Mr Trump in the final days of the race.

Mr Trump targeted Mr DeSantis in part because the governor is widely viewed as the leading alternative to the former president for the Republican nomination.

Mr DeSantis has not said whether he would run for the White House, but Mr Trump –

who is expected to announce his third consecutive presidential bid next week

– has told reporters that he viewed Mr DeSantis as a competitor.

Not in the mood to party

The close races on the rest of the electoral map confounded Mr Trump. At an election-night party at his Mar-a-Lago resort, he was not particularly interested in addressing the crowd, according to a person familiar with the events. He did deliver brief remarks, and one of the few people he praised was Ms Katie Britt, the Republican Senate candidate from Alabama whose victory was seen as a foregone conclusion.

He made no mention of Mr DeSantis’ win, focusing instead on the wide victory for Senator Marco Rubio, who did campaign with Mr Trump.

To demonstrate his continuing influence on the party, Mr Trump endorsed roughly 300 candidates during the 2022 midterm contests, a sharp departure from more than a century of US political tradition. Not since 1908, when Teddy Roosevelt second-guessed his anointing of William Howard Taft as his Republican successor, had a former president been so active in party politics.

The intense focus on the midterms for Mr Trump has stemmed almost entirely from his quest for redemption following his loss in the 2020 presidential election and from his desire to keep the party loyal to him.

Since 2016, when Mr Trump shocked the Republican establishment with a thoroughly dominating takeover of the GOP, his political style has resulted in more collateral damage for fellow conservatives than electoral success. He was the first president in decades to lose the House, the Senate and the White House within four years.

With a different president in office this time, Republicans sensed an opportunity to make up for some of those losses. But for Mr Trump, it was a moment to tighten his grip on the party.

“If this proves to be another Senate flop in a year that was otherwise favourable to Republicans – even if not a wave – it will again be a function of the candidates they put up, which was unmistakably shaped and steered by Donald Trump,” said Mr Liam Donovan, a former aide to the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

Mr Donovan noted the possibility of a runoff in the Georgia contest, where Mr Trump could still demonstrate his pull if Walker defeats Sen. Raphael Warnock, the Democratic incumbent.

Trump’s political brand

Mr Trump’s singular pursuit of maintaining his political brand – more than defeating Democrats – has been threaded through all his endorsements and his decision, for the first time, to spend a significant amount of money to help elect other candidates.

His super PAC, MAGA Inc., spent more than US$16 million (S$22 million) on television advertising in the final month in six states, about 9 per cent of all Republican spending in the same races during that time, according to AdImpact, an ad tracking firm.

He successfully purged the party of many Republican incumbents he viewed as disloyal by backing primary challengers. And he supported candidates who spread his lie that the 2020 election was stolen, including Republicans running to become the top election officials in Arizona, Georgia and Michigan, all states he lost in 2020.

His pick in Georgia lost the primary, while the other two advanced to the general election, where their races were too close to call early on Wednesday.

Mr Trump affixed his name to dozens of candidates who were virtual locks to win at the ballot box – including some who had no Democratic opponent – in an attempt to compile a lopsided win-loss record that he started trumpeting on Tuesday evening, well before any key Senate battleground contests had been called.

He backed candidates in the five most competitive Senate races, including Mr Walker in Georgia and Mr Oz in Pennsylvania, both of whom he helped recruit.

Within the party, Mr Trump’s power has been unquestionable. Republicans battled to win his endorsement during the primary season, and even candidates he didn’t back ran as Trump Republicans. Candidate websites and advertisements were filled with his images. They promoted his policies, and many repeated his false claims about election fraud in 2020.

Limits of his power

But the limits of Mr Trump’s political power were evident during the general election. Like President Joe Biden, Mr Trump is viewed unfavourably by most moderate voters, and few candidates locked in close races were eager to have the former president – or the current one – join them on the campaign trail and risk alienating crucial swing voters.

In the final week, two of Mr Trump’s final four rallies were in states without a competitive statewide race. He didn’t hold a single rally in Georgia or Wisconsin during the general election.

In governors’ contests, Mr Trump’s influence was felt most deeply in Arizona, where Ms Lake, a former local news anchor, fashioned almost her entire campaign on the former president in substance and style.

The strategy proved hugely successful in a primary contest against a well-known Republican establishment figure and kept her close in the polls with Ms Katie Hobbs, the Democratic nominee. But Ms Lake was trailing as votes were being counted early on Wednesday.

Mr Trump’s gubernatorial candidate in Wisconsin, Mr Tim Michels, and in Michigan, Ms Tudor Dixon, both lost to incumbents.

In governors’ races that were still undecided early on Wednesday, Mr Trump endorsed Mr Derek Schmidt in Kansas and Mr Joe Lombardo in Nevada.

Mr Trump is singularly focused on defending himself, preoccupied with not just his win-loss record but with the myriad investigations he is facing and the prospect of challenges by other candidates for the party’s nomination in the primaries. He has been most vexed by the potential of Mr DeSantis to mount a presidential candidacy.

Mr Trump issued a series of broadsides to Mr DeSantis before Election Day, giving him a derisive nickname, “Ron DeSanctimonious”.

In a more menacing fashion, Mr Trump warned a handful of reporters aboard his private plane on Monday night after an Ohio rally that he would reveal things that aren’t “flattering” about Mr DeSantis, should he run in the presidential race. NYTIMES