Trump dominates in new Iowa poll despite rivals’ big push

IOWA – Former US president Donald Trump leads his closest rival by double digits in a poll of likely Iowa caucus-goers released on Monday, a showing that demonstrates both his continued political dominance and the remarkable stability of the Republican race.

The survey conducted by The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom, before and after Trump’s latest indictment in Georgia, found that 42 per cent of Republican voters in the state

planned to support Trump,

who held a lead of 23 percentage points over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis with 19 per cent support. In third place was Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, with 9 per cent.

The findings, which come as Trump’s rivals have poured significantly more time and money into the state, were consistent with the results of a poll by The New York Times and Siena College released earlier in August.

That survey found Trump with 44 per cent support among likely Iowa GOP caucus-goers, Mr DeSantis with 20 per cent support and Mr Scott with 9 per cent. Other rivals who had single-digit support in the Times/Siena poll have been unable to improve their positions, according to the poll released on Monday.

The first-in-the-nation caucuses will take place on Jan 15, 2024, the earliest nominating contest in Iowa since 2012, when it held the caucuses the first week of January.

The 2023 contest is seen as the best chance for Republicans to slow Trump on his way to the nomination for the US presidency.

Indictments a positive for Trump

Trump has turned his legal troubles into calls for support and he recently upstaged Mr DeSantis, his nearest rival, by showing up on the same day at the Iowa State Fair and amassing a much larger crowd.

Trump has consistently had a stronger lead in national polling.

A CBS News poll, conducted immediately after the Georgia indictment, found him winning 62 per cent of likely GOP voters – the large majority of whom said his indictments had strengthened their backing.

Mr DeSantis, the second-place finisher in those results, garnered support from 16 per cent of voters.

The Des Moines Register/NBC News poll of Iowa underscored the positive effect Trump’s criminal cases have had on his grip over Republicans.

The survey, conducted just before and after prosecutors in Georgia accused Trump of a criminal conspiracy to overturn the 2020 election results in the state, found that Trump had increased his lead after he faced his fourth indictment, from 38 per cent support in the days before the indictment to 43 per cent afterward.

The new Iowa poll offered some glimmers of hope for Trump’s nearer rivals, with likely caucus-goers indicating an openness to Mr DeSantis, Mr Scott and Ms Nikki Haley, a former United Nations ambassador and governor of South Carolina.

Mr DeSantis had the highest favourability rating among likely Republican caucus-goers of any candidate, including Trump. A total of 66 per cent of respondents said they held favourable opinions of the Florida governor, compared with 65 per cent of voters who viewed Trump favourably – a difference that fell within the poll’s margin of error.

In the poll, Ms Haley and former vice-president Mike Pence both had 6 per cent support. Former governor Chris Christie of New Jersey was at 5 per cent, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy at 4 per cent and Governor Doug Burgum of North Dakota at 2 per cent.

All those candidates have qualified for the first Republican National Committee debate on Wednesday, which Trump has signalled he will not join because of his commanding polling lead. No other candidates received support above 2 per cent.

Many have yet to make up their minds

The Iowa poll found that a majority of respondents – 52 per cent – said they could “still be persuaded to support a different candidate”, while 40 per cent said their minds were “made up”.

Trump’s support was primarily made up of the latter group of voters, with two-thirds of his backers saying they would stick by him.

Among Mr DeSantis’ supporters, however, less than one-third said their minds were made up.

Trump led by more than 20 percentage points over Mr DeSantis among self-identified Republicans, first-time caucus-goers and evangelicals, according to the poll.

But Mr DeSantis performed better with independents than Trump, with 52 per cent viewing Mr DeSantis favourably, compared with 44 per cent for Trump.

Still, Trump and Mr DeSantis remained closely matched on one metric: the “Iowa footprint” which adds up for each candidate those who listed that candidate as their first choice, their second choice and those who said they were “actively considering” that candidate.

By that measure, Mr DeSantis was 2 percentage points away from Trump at 61 per cent, versus Trump’s 63 per cent. Mr Scott and Ms Haley followed with 53 per cent and 40 per cent. NYTIMES