Trump bypasses shutdown fight to focus on ceasefires, ballroom

WASHINGTON – US President Donald Trump’s upcoming trip to Asia caps a whirlwind stretch that includes jetting to the Middle East to mark the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, escalating a trade clash with China, redoubling efforts to send troops to US cities and overseeing construction of a US$300 million (S$389.8 million) White House ballroom.

Seemingly absent from his day-to-day work? Negotiating an end to

the US government shutdown.

 

As the spending impasse blows past the three-week mark, making it the second longest in US history, Mr Trump has taken a business-as-usual approach.

He has maintained a full schedule of foreign leader visits to the White House, as well as a busy travel line-up – both for official business and weekend trips to the golf course. 

The President has not met with Democratic congressional leaders since before the shutdown began on Oct 1 and has shown little interest in stepping in to broker a solution.

This shutdown is a far cry from prior closures, where it dominated headlines for the duration of the impasse, said Mr Rahm Emanuel, who served as White House chief of staff under former president Barack Obama. 

“It is not really the same kind of intensity this time,” he said.

Mr Trump’s approach stands in sharp contrast to his handling of the shutdown in late 2018 and early 2019.

Then, he refused to sign a funding Bill that lacked border-wall funding, cancelled planned travel to Florida for Christmas and goaded Democrats to negotiate with him at the White House.

“I am all alone (poor me) in the White House,” he wrote at the time, “waiting for the Democrats to come back and make a deal on desperately needed Border Security.”

The current shutdown has not been top of mind for Mr Trump as he stays focused on other agenda items, according to people familiar with his thinking.

For example, he has been encouraged by the truce in Gaza, the people said, and spoken to the leaders of Russia and Ukraine to push for an end to the war.

White House officials also believe it is beneficial for Mr Trump to demonstrate achievements and stay out of the Capitol Hill fray.

“I don’t think it’s affecting what we are doing,” Mr Trump said on Oct 23 at the White House. “But it’s too bad for a lot of people.” 

Also contributing to the shutdown’s longevity: Both Republicans and Democrats think they are winning the messaging war.

Polls show Americans give Democrats a slight edge.

Half of US adults blame Republicans for the shutdown, compared with 43 per cent who blame Democrats, a Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Oct 22 showed.

Mr Trump’s approval rating increased by 2 percentage points to 42 per cent, a shift within the survey’s margin of error.

Negotiating game

So far, Mr Trump has largely stuck to the talking points of Republican congressional leaders, who say they will not negotiate with Democrats on their core demand – enhanced health insurance subsidies – until the government reopens. 

Mr Trump’s White House has also pressured Democrats to relent, with budget director Russ Vought cutting infrastructure spending in Democrat-run areas and ousting federal workers.

The administration has also sought to mitigate some of the most politically unpalatable consequences of the shutdown, including by pushing the Pentagon to scrounge up funds to pay troops. 

An Oct 22 gathering at the White House for Mr Trump and Republican senators reinforced the GOP’s determination to hold the line, while also illustrating how many other priorities are on the President’s plate. 

Mr Trump delivered a speech that touched on his White House ballroom construction, his tax cut law, investment in the US and trade talks with China. That was all before he broached the shutdown, accusing Democrats of “holding the entire government hostage”.

Still, some Republicans worry that Mr Trump will at some point bypass GOP leaders and make a healthcare deal with Democrats, who have demanded the renewal of expiring Obamacare subsidies in return for supporting a short-term funding package to reopen the government.

That concern is not unfounded. Mr Trump has a history of undercutting his Capitol Hill allies in negotiations. In 2019, the President backed down on his demand for wall money to end that shutdown as air travel broke down across the country.

And just a few days into this funding lapse, Mr Trump suggested to reporters that he was open to dealing with Democrats on healthcare, before the White House quickly walked back those comments. 

Bipartisan talks

Mr Marc Short, a White House legislative affairs director during Mr Trump’s first term, said the President has “wisely kept some distance and allowed this to be a congressional battle”.

But Mr Short predicted that Mr Trump could “cut the knees out from under House Republicans” as soon as Americans are notified about insurance premium hikes because Obamacare subsidies have yet to be restored.

A senior White House official characterised any speculation that Mr Trump will roll Republicans as Democratic wish casting.

The official said the White House is aware of small bipartisan efforts to find a compromise on healthcare, but insisted the administration wants the government open before Mr Trump will engage in talks.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune has promised to hold a floor vote on extending those Affordable Care Act subsidies after the government reopens.

Democrats, who otherwise have little leverage in Republican-controlled Washington, say they are not satisfied with that offer.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries pushed to meet with Mr Trump before his expected departure for Asia at week’s end, but the President late on Oct 22 said he would talk to them only after the shutdown ends. 

“I’m disappointed that the President is headed out of the country again without being willing to sit down with people,” Senator Jeanne Shaheen, a New Hampshire Democrat, told CNBC. 

Still, both sides could be forced to the table in the coming weeks as missed pay cheques for federal workers pile up, food assistance programmes run dry and Americans realise the scope of health insurance price increases.

“I think the pressure to resolve the shutdown will start when the public feels it up close,” Mr Emanuel said. BLOOMBERG