Trump bets on intimidation to force Venezuelan leaders into line

WASHINGTON/PALM BEACH, Florida - After

removing Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro from power

, the Trump administration is gambling that it can intimidate the Venezuelan leader’s inner circle into toeing the US line with threats of further military action that could put them at risk of a similar fate, according to sources familiar with the matter.

US President Donald Trump’s advisers also believe they may be able to work behind the scenes with interim President Delcy Rodriguez, who, despite her public defiance, is seen as a technocrat who might be amenable to working with the US on a political transition and key oil-related issues, according to three people briefed on the US strategy.

The still-vague plan, however, faces numerous complicating factors, including how much further Mr Trump is prepared to go militarily, raising questions about his ability to bend the post-Maduro Venezuelan government to his will.

The potential sweeteners for Mr Maduro’s aides would be offers of amnesty or safe exile of the sort that Mr Maduro himself rejected in his final days before his capture by US special forces on Jan 3, according to one source. He is now locked away in a New York detention centre awaiting a Jan 5 court appearance on drug charges.

Venezuela’s Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino and Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, two powerful members of Mr Maduro’s inner circle who both have multimillion-dollar US bounties on their heads, remain potential spoilers in any such arrangement with the US, given their authority over the country’s military and intelligence apparatus.

The White House declined to provide answers to Reuters’ questions, referring instead to comments by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio that were broadcast on Jan 4.

Mr Trump’s effort could also be undercut if Democrats can convince enough of the President’s fellow Republicans to restrict funding for any further Venezuela military operation, which would send a message to Venezuela that Mr Trump’s hand could be weakened.

The US President’s vow on Jan 4 to “run” post-Maduro Venezuela appears for now to be more an aspiration to exert outside control – or at least heavy influence – over the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries nation without deploying US ground forces, which would have little public support at home.

But US officials believe they can still gain cooperation from the Venezuelan authorities by maintaining a massive military build-up off the country’s coast and keeping alive the threat of further air strikes, the targeting of Maduro loyalists and, as a last resort, sending in a contingent of US troops.

“This is the sword that Trump has hanging over them,” the source told Reuters.

Venezuela’s remaining leaders could feel especially vulnerable because of the damage inflicted by US air strikes on the country’s air defence systems, according to a second source familiar with the matter.

Another major source of leverage, hammered home by Mr Rubio on Jan 4’s television news programmes, is to keep in place a “quarantine” on Venezuelan oil shipments, the government’s main financial lifeline.

Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas, the Republican chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, was explicit about the threat to the Venezuelan government, telling CNN: “If they don't want to follow in Maduro’s footsteps, they need to start meeting our demands.”

Venezuelan officials defiant

Top Venezuelan officials, who have called the capture of Mr Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores a kidnapping and accused the US of trying to steal the country’s vast oil reserves, insisted that they remain united.

Ms Rodriguez – who also serves as oil minister – has taken over as interim leader with the blessing of Venezuela’s top court, though she has said Mr Maduro remains president.

Because of her connections with the private sector and her deep knowledge of oil, the country’s top source of revenue, Ms Rodriguez has long been considered the most pragmatic member of what was Mr Maduro’s inner circle, but she has publicly contradicted Mr Trump on his claims that she is willing to work with the US.

Mr Trump was quoted on Jan 4 in an interview with The Atlantic warning that Ms Rodriguez may pay a bigger price than Mr Maduro “if she doesn’t do what’s right”.

Brushing aside Ms Rodriguez’s defiant language, Mr Rubio told CBS: “We’re going to make an assessment on the basis of what they do, not what they say publicly.” 

Mr Trump said nothing about restoring democracy to Venezuela in his triumphant press conference on Jan 4. And he disappointed the country’s opposition when he dismissed the idea of working with opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner Maria Corina Machado, widely seen as Mr Maduro’s most credible opponent, and focused more on prospects for exploiting Venezuela’s energy resources.

Mr Trump’s aides appear to see co-opting Venezuela’s current leadership as the best way to stabilise the country and create a path for US oil investment, while moving towards some kind of political transition away from the Maduro government.

The US has not intervened in Latin America so directly since invading Panama 37 years ago to depose military leader Manuel Noriega over allegations that he led a drug-running operation. The US has levelled similar charges against Mr Maduro, accusing him of running a “narco-state” and rigging the 2024 election – accusations he has denied.

Mr Trump offered no clear picture of how the US would fulfil his vow to oversee Venezuela, something critics quickly condemned as neocolonialism, and which would risk alienating some supporters who oppose foreign interventions.

Much of the US State Department’s Western Hemisphere office was caught by surprise by Mr Trump’s remarks, and no preparations have been made for sending staff to Caracas, two US officials said.

Mr Rubio, who – along with Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth – will take on that job, provided little clarity on Jan 4, and even appeared to edge away from the idea of actually taking day-to-day control of the country of nearly 30 million people.

“Well, it’s running policy, the policy with regard to this,” he told NBC’s Meet The Press. “We want Venezuela to move in a certain direction because not only do we think it’s good for the people of Venezuela, it’s in our national interest.” REUTERS