LA wildfires: Stronger Santa Ana winds to return, and fire risk may rise to ‘extreme’

CALIFORNIA - Winds picked up again early on Jan 12 across Southern California, reaching close to 113kmh near the western and eastern San Gabriel Mountains and the Highway 14 corridor.

And forecasters say another round of strong, gusty Santa Ana winds is expected to develop on Jan 13 and 14, contributing to another stretch of dangerous and potentially

extreme fire conditions

.

Mr Brian Hurley, a meteorologist with the Weather Prediction Centre of the National Weather Service, cautioned that while the winds this week may not be quite as strong as they were last week, their long duration could make the fire risk worse, especially in the western Los Angeles basin and Southern California mountains.

With the humidity remaining low and the vegetation in the region very dry, an upgrade to “extreme” fire conditions – the highest risk classification – is “very well on the table”, Mr Hurley said. Conditions were rated

extreme last week

, when wind gusts reached 160kmh.

For now, though, the fire risk is expected to be one level lower, at “critical”, in parts of Southern California through the afternoon on Jan 14.

The National Weather Service office in Los Angeles forecasts that the stronger Santa Ana winds will last from the night of Jan 13 into Jan 15. Mr Andrew Rorke, a weather service meteorologist, said the winds were expected to follow the typical Santa Ana direction, blowing north-east to south-west.

The areas with the strongest winds will stretch from the mountains northeast of the Santa Clarita Valley, through the valleys along the Ventura and Los Angeles county line, and out across the western Santa Monica Mountains.

They will be most powerful in the mountains, with gusts up to 96kmh. Areas at lower elevations like San Clarita Valley and parts of Los Angeles and Ventura counties will experience wind gusts between 56kmh and 88kmh.

“The only good news here is that the San Gabriel foothills and Eaton fire area will not see any strong winds from this event,” Mr Rorke said.

Looking ahead, forecasters predict the winds will continue into Jan 16, but be weaker than on Jan 15, and may fall below the levels at which they would prompt a fire risk advisory. This will also lower temperatures in valleys and along the coast.

By Jan 17, a dry weather system will move east, and the winds will shift to blowing onshore from the ocean, dropping temperatures a little further.

One glimmer of hope, Mr Hurley said, is a break from the extreme fire danger later in the week, when increased humidity is expected along with the lighter winds.

“There’s a very small chance of rain next weekend, but that’s going out a bit, and it’s not a whole lot of rain in the forecast,” he said. NYTIMES