Red carpet welcome for Modi as US-India ties set to deepen

WASHINGTON – Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the United States this week will be high on crowd-pleasing symbolism – a yoga session at the United Nations in New York, an address to the joint chambers of Congress in Washington on Thursday, and a lavish state dinner the same night.

But the visit will also be substantive, and strategically significant, for both countries – and good for Mr Modi at home.

The US sees India as a like-minded democracy, and as such, a major strategic partner against a common rival, China.  

The US is friendly ground for Mr Modi, despite him being banned from getting a visa during a previous role as Chief Minister of Gujarat, on questions over a 2002 massacre in that state.

This will be the second time he addresses a joint session of Congress; the first was in 2016 under then President Barack Obama.

On previous visits, he addressed big rallies, at Madison Square Garden in 2014, and in Houston – introduced by then President Donald Trump – in 2019. This time, there will be a relatively modest event for the Indian diaspora on Friday.

Citing a degree of trust and confidence between the countries that did not exist a decade ago, Mr Kurt Campbell, the administration’s Indo-Pacific czar, said at the Hudson Institute earlier in June: “My hope is that this visit basically consecrates the US-India relationship as the most important bilateral relationship with the United States on the global stage.”

“Many business groups, investment groups, are looking at India as part of a strategy to diversify globally new supply chains, new investment opportunities,” Mr Campbell said. “I think the hope will be to open up venues and activities for more investment.”

The relationship is complicated, to be sure. Some protests have been scheduled. Commentaries have drawn attention to what the Washington Post in an editorial on Saturday called a “retreat from democracy” in India during Mr Modi’s nine years in power.

There are also limits to India’s commitments in terms of security, analysts say. Dr Ashley Tellis, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote last month in Foreign Affairs that India’s weaknesses compared with China, and its inescapable proximity to it, “guarantee that New Delhi will never involve itself in any US confrontation with Beijing that does not directly threaten its own security.”

But these issues will not be allowed to get in the way of a closer relationship.

Dr Aparna Pande, research fellow and director of the Initiative on the Future of India and South Asia at the Hudson Institute, told ST: “The Biden administration is one of the most pro-Indian administrations ever. They have placed a strategic bet on India.”

The administration is “wooing India in every way”, she said, citing the US’ acceptance of India’s relations with Russia, its support for India with regard to China’s aggression on the Indian land border, and its offer of state-of-the-art technology to India, not just in the civilian but also military realm.

Separately, Ms Lisa Curtis, senior fellow and director of the Indo-Pacific Security Programme at the Centre for a New American Security, told ST: “The administration is building a network of security partnerships to push back against Chinese aggression and maintain a free and open regional order, and India is viewed as an integral part of that.”

Ms Curtis, a former National Security Council senior director for South and Central Asia from 2017 to 2021, also expects “substantial deliverables”, including a deal for the US to co-produce jet engines with India which she described as a game-changer for Indian defence production.

“The main motivations for Washington to invest in India’s defence sector and agree to co-develop and co-produce advanced defence technology, is both to wean India from its dependence on Russian military gear, and so New Delhi has the confidence and capabilities to stand up to Chinese aggression,” she added.

India may also buy MQ-9B Predator armed drones from American company General Atomics, which will enhance its capacity to monitor Chinese troop movements on the disputed Himalayan border, as well as ships at sea.

President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Modi are also expected to advance the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET), launched over a year ago, to expand cooperation in artificial intelligence, quantum computing and advanced wireless communications.

“The Biden administration is making a calculated long-term investment in a country that shares its concerns about the future regional order, and which is destined to play an influential role in the region for years to come,” Ms Curtis said.

Domestically in India, the visit boosts Mr Modi’s image in an important year for India, which is the current chair of the G-20 and will host the group’s annual summit in September. It also sends a message to China on deepening US-India ties, Indian analysts said. 

“There is a political message in the visit in that India is important globally,” said Dr Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, director of the Centre for Security, Strategy & Technology at the New Delhi-based think-tank Observer Research Foundation.

“Mr Modi getting a state visit also signals to friends and adversaries the importance of the relationship. China is going to take note of the visit,” she said.