New York City mayor Mamdani made big campaign promises but big hurdles lie ahead

NEW YORK – When Mr Zohran Mamdani took office on Jan 1 as New York City’s mayor, he inherited a role that is described as the second-hardest job in America. 

He is responsible for the city’s nearly 8.5 million residents and serves as chief executive of the single largest employer in New York, overseeing a municipal workforce of nearly 300,000 permanent employees, as well as 72 city agencies and more than 200 different boards and commissions. 

But Mr Mamdani, a 34-year-old democratic socialist who rose from obscurity in a few short months to win the mayoral election in November, faces even more hazards than usual. 

He has proposed an ambitious programme of benefits intended to alleviate New York City’s affordability crisis, almost none of which he can unilaterally enact or pay for. He faces significant financial risks as President Donald Trump’s administration threatens to slash billions of dollars in federal funding for city and state social safety net programmes. 

And his charisma, youth and biography – he will be New York’s youngest mayor in a century and the first Muslim and person of South Asian descent to hold the office – mean millions are watching his every move.

Mr Mamdani’s election victory polarised the Democratic Party too – his uncompromising criticism of Israel and its government as well as his progressive politics and economic populism have made him a hero to many younger voters, while alienating some Jewish New Yorkers and business leaders who are intent on thwarting his agenda. 

Within a month of taking office, Mr Mamdani has to propose a new city budget for the fiscal year that starts on July 1. But federal funding cuts and larger macroeconomic headwinds could make paying for any new programmes difficult. 

The city, which is required to balance its budget, is currently facing a US$2.2 billion (S$2.83 billion) shortfall in 2026 and a US$10.4 billion gap the following year, according to the city comptroller.

Another worry: The Trump administration’s tariffs could drive inflation higher, deepening the city’s affordability crisis. 

Plus, New York City’s economy is growing at a slower pace, city budget watchdogs and economists warn. The city is projected to add just 41,000 new jobs in 2025, its weakest year of growth outside of a recession in two decades. Much of that growth came from low-wage home healthcare jobs, which are almost entirely funded by Medicaid. 

The city has a habit of underestimating the costs of some of its expenses – including those for specialised education, police overtime and homeless shelters. The city also needs an additional US$700 million to hire enough teachers to fulfill a state-imposed class size mandate, according to a recent report. 

In recent years, the city’s extra costs have been underwritten by higher-than-expected tax revenue, buoyed by record-setting profits on Wall Street. There is no guarantee that trend will continue.

One of Mr Mamdani’s most attention-grabbing campaign promises, a pledge to freeze rents on the city’s one million rent-regulated apartments, could be among the most difficult to achieve in the near term. 

The regulated units, which make up more than 40 per cent of the city’s rental supply, are governed under a rent-stabilisation programme created in the 1960s to address complaints about rising housing costs.

Rents for stabilised apartments are set by the Rent Guidelines Board, a nine-member panel appointed by the mayor. Mr Mamdani’s pledge to freeze rents risks running afoul of a city law, which requires the board to take into account landlords’ expenses when considering whether to raise or limit annual increases. 

But Mr Mamdani likely will not soon be able to make many appointments to the board. Departing mayor Eric Adams in December named two new members and reappointed two others, ensuring his own appointees will make up a majority on the board for at least the next year.

Mr Mamdani has also promised to build 200,000 units of publicly funded affordable housing over the next decade using only union labour, which his campaign estimates will cost US$100 billion. 

To pay for it, he would need state lawmakers to grant him authority to borrow an additional US$70 billion in capital funding.

Another of Mr Mamdani’s marquee campaign pledges was a promise to create a universal, free childcare programme for children six weeks to five years old. The pledge has won broad public support from lawmakers, elected officials and some business leaders, but it is not clear where the funding would come from. Mr Mamdani’s campaign estimated it would cost at least US$6 billion a year. 

He proposed funding childcare through two new tax increases, which would require approval from state lawmakers. One would raise the city’s marginal tax rate on income above US$1 million a year to 5.9 per cent, from 3.9 per cent currently. Another would lift the top state corporate tax rate to 11.5 per cent from 7.25 per cent to match New Jersey’s state tax rate.

For businesses in New York City, which pay additional city corporate taxes, that would mean a combined effective tax rate of nearly 19 per cent, the highest in the US.

The third major pillar of Mr Mamdani’s campaign was a pledge to make New York City’s buses free. But the city’s vast transit network is run by the state’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA).

Its officials have said making the buses free would cost roughly US$750 million. Some transit experts are sceptical, saying it would create a two-tiered system that pushes lower-income riders away from the faster subway trains and onto sluggish buses. 

Mr Mamdani has argued making bus service free is not only an easier way to deliver benefits to needy New Yorkers, but also will speed bus travel times. 

Like many progressive New York City Democrats, he has at times been a strident critic of the New York Police Department (NYPD). But several of New York City’s previous mayors have experienced the political damage that can come from clashing with the department and its leadership. They also confronted how the failure to address rising crime, homelessness and public disorder can hijack public attention away from other policy goals.

During mayor Abe Beame’s administration in the 1970s, NYPD officers facing budget cuts handed out fliers to tourists calling New York “Fear City”, urging visitors to avoid the city for their own safety. When mayor David Dinkins tried to implement stronger civilian oversight of the department in the early 1990s, police officers protested in front of City Hall.

In 2014, rank-and-file police officers publicly turned their backs on mayor Bill de Blasio at a funeral for two officers shot in the line of duty, an extraordinary show of disapproval after his criticisms of the department’s tactics and civil rights abuses.

Mr Mamdani has pre-emptively moderated his positions on the NYPD. After the widespread protests following Mr George Floyd’s murder in 2020, he called the department “racist, anti-queer & a major threat to public safety” and called for its defunding, remarks he has since apologised for. 

He has called for keeping police headcount at current levels but has also proposed creating a US$1.1 billion civilian-staffed Department of Community Safety to handle emergency mental health calls currently handled by the police. He also announced plans to keep mayor Adams’ current NYPD commissioner, Ms Jessica Tisch, who has presided over decreases in crime during her tenure. 

Being New York City mayor is a massive managerial job, but the role’s public visibility and the city’s international clout give it extraordinary influence.

Despite having no formal role to play in foreign policy, Mr Mamdani’s strong criticisms of Israel and the war in Gaza became a major factor in the mayor’s race – polarising Democrats, donors and elected officials in a city that is home to both the largest population of Jewish people outside of Israel, and the largest Muslim population of any city in the country. 

The Anti-Defamation League, a non-profit dedicated to battling Anti-Semitism that is staunchly pro-Israel, launched a tracker after Mr Mamdani’s election victory to vet his appointments. The group’s effort has already led to the resignation of senior Mamdani administration appointee Catherine Almonte Da Costa one day after she was hired, when the organisation dug up Anti-Semitic social media posts she made more than a decade ago. 

Mr Mamdani’s swift ascent to the top of the city’s power structure was made possible in part by an army of volunteers and enthusiastic donors, whose support he hopes to maintain, even in the face of impossibly lofty expectations. But to implement his initiatives, he will likely have to make some political compromises, and could risk alienating some of his ardent supporters. 

It is a fine line to walk, even for a skilled politician, said Mr Saladin Ambar, a professor of political science at Rutgers University in New Jersey. 

“He’s going to have to adopt a ‘bend but don’t break’ philosophy,” he added. “Provided he doesn’t betray his own authentic self, I think he’ll be fine with bending some.” BLOOMBERG