WASHINGTON (NYTIMES) - Senior Biden administration officials say they believe that the next four weeks will shape the eventual outcome of Russia's war in Ukraine.
While the officials still expect the war to be long and grinding, they say that it is imperative to rush Ukraine as many new weapons as possible - especially long-range artillery and anti-artillery radar - to push back Russia's new advance in the eastern Donbas region.
Reflecting the renewed sense of urgency, US President Joe Biden announced on Thursday (April 21) the United States would send Ukraine an additional US$800 million (S$1.1 billion) in military aid, the second such package in just over a week.
Biden said the latest aid package sent "an unmistakable message" to President Vladimir Putin of Russia: "He will never succeed in dominating and occupying all of Ukraine."
If Russia can push through in the east, Putin will be better positioned at home to sell his so-called special military operation as a limited success and claim he has secured protection for Ukraine's pro-Russia minority, US officials said. He might then seek a ceasefire but would be emboldened to use the Donbas as leverage in any negotiations, they said. The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters.
But if the Ukrainian military can stop Russia's advance in the Donbas, officials say Putin will be faced with a stark choice: commit more combat power to a fight that could drag on for years or negotiate in earnest at peace talks.
The first option might mean a full national mobilisation, officials say, and is politically risky for the Russian leader.
The next phase of the battle ostensibly favours Russia to some degree, as Russian troops move over more open terrain.
But a senior Defence Department official said the Pentagon believed that with the right weapons and a continuation of high morale and motivation, the Ukrainian forces might push back the Russian advance.
"The Russians are in a weakened state from which they may well be able to recover given enough time and new conscripts," said Evelyn N. Farkas, the top Pentagon policy official for Russia and Ukraine during the Obama administration.
