Musk faces a daunting path in challenging US two-party system

WASHINGTON – Building a new US political party from scratch is a daunting task, even for the world’s richest man.

But that is what Mr Elon Musk, the billionaire behind Tesla and SpaceX, said he plans to do in the wake of his falling out with President Donald Trump. Mr Musk this weekend announced the birth of the “America Party” – dedicated, he said, to defeating Republicans who backed Mr Trump’s

massive tax-cut and spending Bill

. 

Mr Musk described his new party on his platform X as tech-centric, budget-conscious, pro-energy and centrist, with the goal of drawing both disaffected Democrats and Republicans. He has criticised the tax-cut Bill, which is forecast to add about US$3.4 trillion (S$4.35 trillion) to the United States’ debt.

Breaking the two-party system’s grip on US federal elections would take tremendous resources and a long-term commitment, political experts say. Similar attempts have failed, underscoring how difficult it is to gain a foothold in a country where elections are organised on a state-by-state level.

“There are just very, very significant barriers to the creation of a viable third party,” said Associate Professor David A. Hopkins from Boston College’s political science department. He said challenges include building party infrastructure, organising volunteers and qualifying for the ballot.

Mr David Jolly, a former Republican congressman from Florida who left the party over Mr Trump, said Mr Musk can provide what has long been required for such a push: money.

“What the independent space has been lacking has been resources,” Mr Jolly said. “It’s more than filing with the Federal Election Commission. It’s really starting 50 state parties. You’re talking about US$100 million just to enter the space with real serious intent.”

Mr Jolly considered returning to politics as an independent, but he concluded that staying within the two-party system would be a more effective way to reach unhappy voters. He is now running for governor of Florida as a Democrat.

In 2016, former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg, another billionaire, made a similar conclusion, rejecting the idea of running for president as an independent, saying that such a candidate would have “no chance of winning”.

Mr Jolly estimated it would take Mr Musk 10 years and perhaps US$1 billion to build a viable national party – and said Mr Musk’s recent history with his

Department of Government Efficiency (Doge)

suggests the billionaire may not be in it for the long haul.

Mr Musk left Doge after just a few months in Mr Trump’s administration, having

delivered little of the savings

he promised.

“What we have seen is an Elon Musk who is not disciplined... enough to change American politics,” Mr Jolly said.

Mr Musk’s office did not respond to a request for comment. Tesla shares closed nearly 7 per cent lower on July 7 as Mr Musk reignited investors’ worries about his focus on the company.

Playing spoiler

Mr Musk could have chosen a more traditional path, using his political action committee to back Republican challengers to incumbents in the party primaries ahead of 2026’s midterm elections, which will determine control of Congress.

He was the largest donor in the 2024 US campaign cycle, making nearly US$300 million in contributions, mostly focused on helping Mr Trump return to the White House.

Not all his political efforts have paid off. He poured millions of dollars into a Wisconsin Supreme Court election in April, only to see his preferred candidate fail.

His efforts to convince Republicans in the US Congress not to pass Mr Trump’s tax Bill also fell flat. 

It is unclear how effective he would be in backing independents in a handful of competitive US House of Representatives races.

As it is, the roughly three dozen races deemed competitive by nonpartisan analysts are often already swamped with cash from political parties and outside fund-raisers, and the candidates themselves typically are ideologically more moderate – which would make it harder for Mr Musk’s candidates to differentiate themselves.

Historically, congressional candidates outside the two parties have struggled to overcome disadvantages in local efforts to organise and get out the vote. More often, independents have served as spoilers – siphoning away votes from either the Democrat or Republican.

In the 2024 election for a House seat in Ohio, independent candidate Dennis Kucinich, a former Democratic congressman, captured more than 12 per cent of the general election vote. The Republican, Mr Max Miller, won by 15 percentage points.

Mr Trump mocked Mr Musk’s efforts on July 6. “Third parties have never worked, so he can have fun with it, but I think it’s ridiculous,” he told reporters.

Complicating Mr Musk’s plans is that many voters dislike him. Any role he plays in an election is sure to become part of the debate.

He is viewed less favourably than Mr Trump by the American public at large – just 36 per cent of respondents to a June Reuters/Ipsos poll had a favourable view of Mr Musk compared with 42 per cent who viewed Mr Trump favourably, while 59 per cent of respondents have an unfavourable view of him compared with 55 per cent who viewed Mr Trump unfavourably.

But his biggest liability may be that he is trying to challenge Mr Trump politically while relying on support from Mr Trump’s own voters. Mr Musk enjoyed his strongest level of support – 78 per cent favourability – among people who voted for Mr Trump in November.

“Musk himself is not very popular, and his appeal has a huge overlap with the existing Republican coalition,” said Associate Professor Hans Noel, a political scientist at Georgetown University. “There really isn’t an unrepresented movement that he’s speaking for... He’s unlikely to elect many America Party candidates.” REUTERS