More political conflict ahead as US House reconvenes with Republican majority

WASHINGTON - The US Congress reconvenes on Jan 3, this time with the Republican Party holding a majority in the House of Representatives, signalling divided government and intensifying political conflict ahead.

Through his first term when Democrats had the majority in both Houses, President Joe Biden was able to sign off on landmark legislation, including Acts to boost US infrastructure, shift to clean energy, and give a shot in the arm to the semiconductor industry.

Those days are effectively over. With the Democrats having 213 seats and the Republicans 222, the former will have to contend with a string of investigations seeking to hold the administration to account. These will pertain to the botched August 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the Department of Justice and FBI that former president Donald Trump – who faces a slew of probes himself – accuses of a vendetta against him. Republicans will also launch an inquiry into the business dealings of Mr Biden’s son Hunter.

Yet while the Democrats lost the House in the midterm elections, they did so narrowly, and improved their position by one vote in the Senate – and the President himself emerged looking stronger politically.

Even Democrats sceptical of the idea of him

seeking a second term in 2024

– chiefly on account that he would be 82 then – may be coming around to his running again. An announcement could come sooner rather than later; prior to the holidays, Mr Biden said he would be consulting with his family.

More immediately, when the House convenes, there may be drama over the selection of the Speaker. California Republican Congressman Kevin McCarthy needs 218 votes to win the position, but it is not sure he will get them; bargaining with a group of hardline right-wing Republicans reportedly continued through the weekend. The vote, usually routine, could take days if multiple rounds of voting are required.

There will also be drama over Mr George Santos, the Republican from Queens, New York, who flipped a Democrat seat in the midterms.

He has since been exposed as having embellished or outright invented large parts of his background, including his family heritage, his education and his business experience.

However, he won the election – before all this was exposed – and is legally required to be seated. Also, Mr McCarthy – and the party in general – needs every vote on key issues.

Mr Santos has

admitted to lies and embellishments

, but has maintained that he is “not a fraud.” Last week, however, another Congressman-elect, Republican Nick LaLota, also from New York, called for an ethics investigation. It is not inconceivable that Mr Santos may eventually be expelled.

Aside from these dramas, and amid increasingly heated national politics leading up to the December 2024 presidential election, more Republicans are beginning to question the US’ open-ended support for Ukraine. And the House under Republicans will be more hawkish on China.  

The Republican Party is preparing to create a Select Committee on China, to be chaired by Congressman Mike Gallagher, who told CNN last week that he views the Communist Party of China (CPC) “as an enemy of the United States” as well as an “enemy of its own people”.

Mr McCarthy, in a news release last month announcing Mr Gallagher’s selection, called the CPC the “greatest geopolitical threat of our lifetime”. But the US is “prepared to tackle the economic and security challenges” that it poses, he said.

In a Dec 8, 2022 article on Fox News, Mr McCarthy wrote: “To win the new Cold War, we must respond to Chinese aggression with tough policies to strengthen our economy, rebuild our supply chains, speak out for human rights, stand against military aggression, and end the theft of Americans’ personal information, intellectual property, and jobs.”

The hard stance on China has a domestic political dimension; there is bipartisan consensus on China, and Mr Biden and his Democrats cannot afford to be accused of being soft on Beijing.

Mr Gallagher has said he hopes the committee will be bipartisan and “Congress can speak with one voice when it comes to the policy that best positions us to win this long-term competition”.

Mr Gallagher, a former Marine Corps counterintelligence officer, last month introduced bipartisan legislation to ban TikTok in the US, telling CNN the app’s parent company ByteDance is “effectively controlled” by the CPC.

The US last week placed a ban on the use of TikTok on federal government devices.