Mamdani seen holding lead over Cuomo in New York City mayoral race, analysts say

NEW YORK - The decision by New York City Mayor Eric Adams to suspend his sputtering re-election bid is unlikely to slow the upstart candidacy of democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani, political analysts said on Sept 29.

Mr Mamdani, a 33-year-old Uganda-born state assembly member, has polled well ahead of his main rival, former New York state governor Andrew Cuomo, with five weeks to go before election day, and persistent attacks by US President Donald Trump may serve only to burnish Mr Mamdani’s image with New Yorkers opposed to the President’s policies.

Since he scored a stunning upset in the June primary to become the Democratic Party’s standard bearer in the Nov 4 general election,

Mr Mamdani’s candidacy has been on a roll,

winning endorsements from party hold-outs such as former US vice-president Kamala Harris and New York Governor Kathy Hochul, and a steady stream of financial backing from small donors.

Mr Adams confirmed weeks of speculation on Sept 28 by announcing he was suspending his independent bid for a second term. He had decided against seeking the Democratic nomination in June. 

His departure creates what is essentially a two-candidate race between Mr Mamdani and Mr Cuomo, a veteran of New York politics attempting a comeback after his 2021 resignation as governor amid sexual harassment allegations. Mr Cuomo is running as an independent after his loss in the June Democratic primary.

Mr Mamdani “is well ahead of Cuomo and something would have to dramatically change the narrative of the race for there to be a shift in the polling to suggest Mamdani could lose, and I don’t see that happening right now”, said Professor Basil Smikle, a political analyst at Columbia University’s School of Professional Studies.

Mr Mamdani on Sept 29 said he was not interested in commenting on what Mr Adams’ departure meant for his campaign.

“A lot of the focus has been on the question of the impact it may have on election day, what it means for the horse race,” he said at a campaign event in uptown Manhattan. “What it loses sight of is that for New Yorkers who are struggling to afford the most expensive city in the United States of America, nothing has changed.”

Before the news on Sept 28, a Marist University poll showed Mr Mamdani leading with 45 per cent support, against 24 per cent for Mr Cuomo. Mr Adams, who withdrew too late to remove his name from the ballot, trailed with 9 per cent, and Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa with 17 per cent.

While no new polls have been held since Mr Adams dropped out, a Marist poll released on Sept 16 asked potential voters to consider that possibility. It showed that Mr Mamdani would receive the support of 46 per cent of likely voters, against 30 per cent for Mr Cuomo and 18 per cent for Mr Sliwa. That suggests the benefits to Mr Cuomo from Mr Adams’ departure would help the former governor, but not enough to narrow Mr Mamdani’s lead significantly.

Trump attacks Mamdani again

Mr Adams’ bid for re-election was plagued from the start. He was elected during the Covid-19 pandemic, and his popularity withered amid a steady drumbeat of graft charges involving himself and his associates. He became the first sitting mayor in New York history to be indicted on federal bribery charges. 

The mayor pleaded not guilty, but Mr Trump’s Justice Department dropped the case, saying it interfered with the mayor’s ability to support the President’s aggressive deportation agenda. That angered many New Yorkers, who overwhelmingly say they oppose the President’s policies.

On Sept 28, Mr Trump welcomed Mr Adams’ move, saying it gave Mr Cuomo a “much better chance” by concentrating the anti-Mamdani vote. On Sept 29, Mr Trump attacked Mr Mamdani. In a social media post, he said Mr Mamdani “needs the money from me, as President, in order to fulfil all of his FAKE Communist promises. He won’t be getting any of it, so what’s the point of voting for him?”

Political science professor Christina Greer at Fordham University in New York says such threats may backfire, giving an unintended boost to Mr Mamdani.

“The President makes miscalculations,” she said. “The more he tries to meddle in this race, the more it highlights the fact that actually we do want this type of representation, because there’s such a draconian backlash coming from Washington.”

Mr Mamdani maintained his solid edge on Mr Cuomo in fund-raising over the summer, having collected some US$15 million (S$19.4 million) – versus US$9 million for the former governor – on the strength of a record number of small donations, according to the most recent data, which included August disclosures.

To be sure, Mr Cuomo’s campaign could benefit from Mr Adams’ departure if donations pick up again from powerful business interests concerned about Mr Mamdani’s progressive agenda, which focuses on affordability issues at the expense of wealthy New Yorkers.

Before the primary, big donors poured millions of dollars into the pro-Cuomo political action committee (PAC) Fix The City, which operates independently of direct campaign funding.

“We have seen an uptick in interest from donors and supporters over the past 24 hours and will be working to maximise our resources to ensure that Andrew Cuomo is elected in November,” said a source familiar with the PAC’s planning but unauthorised to speak on the record. REUTERS