Little chance of honeymoon for Biden amid crises

When Mr Joe Biden takes power amid an unprecedented ring of security in a country bitterly divided, he will hardly have the chance to enjoy a honeymoon.

The 78-year-old is inheriting twin crises which require immediate intervention: to control the spread of the coronavirus and provide more relief for Americans struggling amid the battered economy.

A new NBC poll has shown that more than seven in 10 voters believe the country is on the wrong track, another seven in 10 think the nation in the next four years will remain politically divided, and a majority say they are worried and pessimistic about their country's future.

As President Donald Trump did, Mr Biden will in many instances rely on executive orders to fast-track his response.

Immediately after taking the oath of office today, Mr Biden is expected to sign roughly a dozen orders addressing the pandemic, vaccination, the climate crisis, racial inequality and the environment. The United States will rejoin the 2015 Paris agreement on climate change.

In subsequent days, he reportedly plans to quash the hugely controversial multibillion-dollar Keystone XL oil pipeline, which Mr Trump championed.

In the near term, the Covid-19 fight and job restoration are inextricably linked. The fate of the first may be known in 100 days - Mr Biden's vaccine plan is "100 million in 100 days".

But he must depend on Congress, where the Democratic Party has only razor-thin majorities, to quickly pass a US$1.9 trillion (S$2.5 trillion) funding Bill to alleviate what he last week called a "crisis of deep human suffering in plain sight".

He also needs to manage different forces in his own party. His promise of a US$15 nationwide minimum hourly wage as part of the US$1.9 trillion package is opposed by moderate Democrats.

Wall Street investors seem optimistic. Economists are forecasting that growth will exceed 4 per cent this year. Many analysts see pent-up demand contributing to a surge in growth in the second half of next year.

But that depends on the fixes working. "Neither the President-elect, nor I, propose this relief package without an appreciation for the country's debt burden," Dr Janet Yellen, Mr Biden's nominee for Treasury Secretary, said in her prepared statement at her Senate confirmation hearing yesterday.

"But right now, with interest rates at historic lows, the smartest thing we can do is act big," the statement read. "In the long run, I believe the benefits will far outweigh the costs, especially if we care about helping people who have been struggling for a very long time."

Currently, there are close to 10 million unemployed. If by the middle of this year the economy starts recovering, it will still be restoration rather than growth in jobs that will take place - and mostly in businesses in the service industry, like hotels and restaurants, which took a new hit last month.

Restoring those jobs will bring back the feel-good factor. But Mr Biden has to create deeper and wider job growth, and that will be slower. Small businesses are not expected to rebound so quickly.

Mr Biden is optimistic that one key agenda plank - addressing the climate crisis - will itself create more than 10 million jobs, but nobody expects that to happen soon.

Already, the 2022 mid-term elections loom. Some analysts say Republicans will regain control of the House and then be in a position to slam the brakes on the President's agenda.

Another issue is the trial in the Senate of outgoing President Donald Trump, following his impeachment in the House for inciting insurrection over the Jan 6 storming of the Capitol.

The trial will deepen, not assuage, the country's polarisation. Mr Biden himself has never been a vocal supporter of it.

Last week, when asked by reporters whether the trial would be a distraction from his agenda, he replied: "Can we go half-day on dealing with the impeachment and half-day getting my people nominated and confirmed in the Senate, as well as moving on the package?

"That's my hope and expectation," he said.