Lacking precision missiles, Russia is increasing its use of drones, Ukraine says
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Rescuers and police experts examine the remains of a drone, following a strike on an administrative building in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, on Dec 14, 2022.
PHOTO: AFP
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WASHINGTON - Russia is struggling to replenish its stockpiles of missiles but still has enough for more large-scale strikes and is rushing new munitions from the production line into use in the war, a senior Ukrainian intelligence official said in an interview published on Wednesday.
The official, General Vadym Skibitsky, Ukraine’s deputy intelligence chief, also said that Russia was compensating for its lack of missiles by increasing its use of drones, including those made by Iran, to strike Ukrainian infrastructure, according to comments published by news outlet RBC-Ukraine.
Separately on Wednesday, the United States said it was looking at ways to target Iranian drone production through sanctions and export controls, and was talking to private companies whose parts have been used in production.
“We are assessing further steps we can take in terms of export controls to restrict Iran’s access to technologies used in drones,” White House National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson said in a statement.
Russia’s strikes over the weekend could signal a new tactic of using a smaller number of high-precision missiles, especially in front-line areas, followed hours later by volleys of exploding drones, Gen Skibitsky said.
“They will combine means to maintain the pace of strikes on our civilian infrastructure facilities,” he added.
Gen Skibitsky said that Russia was straining to produce enough long-range missiles to launch precision strikes, an account that generally matches public statements from American and British military officials, as well as from independent military analysts.
The strikes that Moscow launched on Saturday included 20 cruise missiles, Gen Skibitsky said, compared with the 70 or more missiles it used in mass strikes beginning in October.
Moscow is able to produce about 30 X-101 cruise missiles and about 15 to 20 sea-based Kalibr cruise missiles a month, the general noted.
Given its current stockpiles, he said, Russia has enough missiles for “two to three” major barrages of 80 missiles or more.
His estimates could not be independently confirmed, although they roughly match those that he gave to the New York Times in an interview last month.
Gen Skibitsky told RBC-Ukraine that fragments of Russian missiles found recently in Ukraine bore markings indicating that they were manufactured in 2022, especially in the third quarter. “This means that they immediately go to the army from production,” he said.
A Russian drone considered by Ukrainian officials to be an Iranian-made Shahed-136, flies over Kyiv, in October 2022.
PHOTO: REUTERS
Russia’s increased use of the slow-moving Iranian drones has produced mixed results.
Ukraine has become increasingly adept at shooting down the drones – downing all of the more than 80 fired its way over the New Year weekend, according to the Ukrainian air force.
But many have caused damage, and over time, experts say, the drones could pose a severe challenge for Ukraine, in no small part because the weapons it uses to shoot down drones cost much more than the drones themselves.
Ukraine estimates that Russia has used about 660 Iranian-made Shahed drones so far in the war. Moscow had a contract with Iran for a total of 1,750, Gen Skibitsky said, adding that a new batch of perhaps as many as 300 drones was now arriving as part of that contract.
American officials have said that they are aware of reports that Russia and Iran are trying to set up a joint production facility for drones in Russia.
Russia’s goal is to use swarms of drones in such large numbers that they overwhelm Ukraine’s air defences, allowing some to get through to their targets, Gen Skibitsky said.
In the recent attacks, he added, so many drones were fired that Ukraine’s National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems – advanced air defence systems produced by the United States and Norway – had to be reloaded with missiles while the raids were ongoing, the first time that has happened in the war.
“If there are a very large number of drones in a particular direction, then they can simply break through the air defence system in that area,” he said. NYTIMES, REUTERS
