Kissinger sees war over Taiwan likely unless US, China back down
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Taiwan has long been one of the most sensitive issues in US-China relations.
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WASHINGTON – Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said he believes military conflict between China and Taiwan is likely if tensions continue on their current course, though he still holds out for dialogue that will lead to de-escalation.
“On the current trajectory of relations, I think some military conflict is probable,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg News editor-in-chief John Micklethwait. “But I also think the current trajectory of relations must be altered.”
The remarks, delivered as Dr Kissinger looked back on his life and career soon after his 100th birthday, were some of his most downbeat about the state of relations between China and the United States. Washington has vowed to back Taiwan in the event China attacks.
He added that it is up to Washington and Beijing to step back from their stand-off, which he said is at “the top of a precipice”.
Dr Kissinger, who served as top US diplomat and national security adviser at the White House in the 1970s, spoke days before his latest successor, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, is set to travel to Beijing. The latter will be the highest-level US official to visit in five years, and the White House is looking to set expectations low, saying there will be no breakthroughs.
Dr Kissinger, author of numerous books including On China, written a year before President Xi Jinping took power, is closely watched for his views on Asian geopolitics – given his secret trip to China in 1972 and his role in normalising US-China relations under then President Richard Nixon.
Taiwan has long been one of the most sensitive issues in US-China relations.
China regards Taiwan as a renegade province to be reunified, by force if necessary.
Beijing regularly warns Washington about arms sales to the island, and any sort of political engagement with Taiwanese leadership.
Senior US military officials have repeatedly warned that China’s leadership is intent on an invasion and wants its People’s Liberation Army to be capable of seizing Taiwan in the coming years – possibly as early as 2027.
All these years later, Dr Kissinger said he is still undecided about the outcome of the strains between the US and China, given that “they have not yet actually engaged in the sort of dialogues that I’ve suggested”.
But the one thing he noted that he knows for sure is that wars between two superpowers cannot be won. Or, as he put it, they are “winnable only at costs that are out of proportion”.
“It’s a unique situation in the sense that the biggest threat of each country is the other – that is, the biggest threat to China is America, in their perception, and the same is true here,” he added. BLOOMBERG
