July 4th Independence Day weekend celebration to test US travel system

NEW YORK – Travel forecasters are predicting record travel in the United States for the July 4th weekend, but the 2023 celebration may also be something of a battle with the elements.

The five-day stretch culminates in Tuesday’s Independence Day celebration, a highlight of the US summer calendar and known for barbecues, lazing by the pool and fireworks.

A record 50.7 million Americans are expected to venture at least 80km from home in the period heading into July 4th, eclipsing the prior peak of 49 million in 2019, according to the American Automobile Association.

But travellers this week got a bitter taste of

the impact of seemingly typical summer weather on the country’s stretched aviation network.

Intermittent rainstorms, thunder and lightning in New York and other East Coast destinations wreaked havoc, forcing the cancellation of more than 3,200 flights to and from the three major New York-area airports since Monday.

Aviation chaos is only one of the potential buzzkills.

Travellers are also tracking how much of the smoky air from Canada moves eastwards from the Midwest, and extreme heat in Texas and other states has driven talk of a federal disaster declaration to mitigate public health risks.

New York’s LaGuardia Airport drew a hearty crowd early on Thursday.

“If you really want to go, you’ve got to deal with it,” said Ms Ellen Coakley on Thursday, upon landing at the airport from Chicago, where one could smell the smoke from Canadian forest fires.

Ms Jennifer Hamilton encountered “packed” airports as she navigated a newly circuitous itinerary to Costa Rica from Washington after construction on an airport runway cancelled her original flight.

After landing at LaGuardia, Ms Hamilton was taking an Uber to John F. Kennedy International Airport where she would fly to Bogota, landing after midnight, if all went according to plan.

Paying up

Travel experts see this weekend’s expected historic tourist volume as reflecting favourable factors, including a strong US job market and a moderation in petrol prices.

More than four-fifths of the travellers over the long weekend will be going by car, benefiting from the 25 per cent drop in petrol prices. But they will likely experience “grief at the grill”, as Rabobank said of double-digit price increases on beef, lettuce, soft drinks, white bread and potato chips.

“Consumers have taken some heavy punches but they’re still standing,” said Mr Tom Bailey, senior consumer foods analyst at Rabobank, adding that the July 4th gathering is a “splurge” item.

Even before the Covid-19 pandemic, travel industry experts described a greater preference by young consumers for experiential consumption compared with earlier cohorts.

If anything, those trends were bolstered by the isolation of the pandemic years, helping to fuel the current go-go spending on hotels, airlines, cruise ships and booking websites.

“Travel remains really robust,” said Mr Siye Desta, an equity analyst at CFRA Research. “There hasn’t been any sign of any pullback in consumer spending in travel, even though prices have meaningfully increased.”

Stormy weather ahead?

For people flying this weekend, the biggest worry will be a prolongation of the airport turmoil of recent days. This week has seen another round of horror stories of flight cancellations, stranded luggage and airport mass sleep-ins that have become a recurring theme in recent years.

United Airlines, the carrier most at the centre of this week’s Big Apple travel nightmare, blamed understaffing of the Federal Aviation Administration for the outsized impact of the storm.

But pilots and flight attendant unions pointed the finger at United management, while Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg told CNN that United had “some internal issues it needs to work through”.

United reported on Thursday that it is continuing to see “meaningful improvement after an overnight effort to further repair schedules and match separated crews with aircraft”.

“As the recovery progresses, delays and cancellations will continue to decline as we head into what we expect to be a very busy holiday weekend,” the company said, adding that it is watching the weather in Denver and Chicago.

Aviation experts note that the industry has generally struggled to ramp up capacity to meet post-pandemic need, with personnel shortfalls dogging the system and fewer planes than expected, due in part to delayed deliveries from Boeing and Airbus because of supply chain issues.

“Airlines have less of a buffer today,” said Mr Christopher Raite, who analyses aviation at research consultancy Third Bridge.

Mr Charles Everett, aviation director of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, is urging travellers to check with their airlines before leaving for the airport.

“We expect similar weather to what we’ve been seeing,” he said. “That’s why we recommend people check with their airline.” AFP