How the 2022 primaries are testing Trump's role as the Republican 'kingpin'

NEW YORK (NYTIMES) - Former US president Donald Trump has sought to establish himself as the Republican Party's undisputed kingmaker in the 2022 mid-terms, issuing more than 120 endorsements to elevate allies, punish those who have crossed him and turn his baseless claim that the 2020 election was stolen into a litmus test for the party.

But the range of Trump-backed candidates has become so unwieldy that even some of his own advisers have warned that his expansive effort to install loyalists nationwide has not only threatened his brand but diluted its impact, exposing him unnecessarily to political risk, according to advisers and Republican strategists.

Trump's face-saving decision on Wednesday (March 23) to retract his endorsement of Republican Mo Brooks, a longtime ally who has slumped in the polls in Alabama's Senate race, only highlighted the perils of an upcoming primary season that will test the former president's sway over the Republican Party.

Already, two of Trump's early and most prominent Senate endorsements have backfired long before voters head to the polls. In addition to Alabama, his initial choice in Pennsylvania, Sean Parnell, quit the race last autumn after abuse allegations emerged in a child custody dispute. And fears of further setbacks have helped keep Trump on the sidelines so far in choosing a replacement there or a candidate in the Ohio or Missouri Senate races.

Georgia, where Trump is headed this weekend, represents one of his riskiest bets. He has been fixated on unseating Republican governor, Brian Kemp. But Trump's hand-picked challenger has been struggling to gain traction against the well-financed governor less than two months before the primary.

"I don't know whether he is letting emotion rule his decision-making or if he is getting bad advice," said Glen Bolger, a Republican pollster, "but it seems like he is picking candidates who are pretty weak, and that's not a place - when you're trying to be kingpin - where you want to be." He added that Trump's image remained "very strong" among Republican primary voters.

The early stumbles have come as Trump's rivals, and even some erstwhile allies, including former vice-president Mike Pence, have become more emboldened to break ranks publicly with Trump.

The former president's own obsession with his endorsement success rate as a metric of his power has only magnified attention on upcoming primaries. Trump crowed after the Texas primary this month about how all 33 people he had endorsed either won outright or were far ahead. But nearly all of those candidates were on a glide path to victory without his backing.

Bigger tests loom. Trump's advisers and his adversaries alike have circled May as the month that will either cement his hold on the Republican base or puncture his aura as the party's untouchable leader.

The only two races for governor in which Trump is seeking to unseat Republican incumbents, in Georgia and Idaho, are taking place that month, as is the Alabama senate primary, in which Trump said he now planned to endorse again. There is also a North Carolina Senate race where Trump's choice is not considered the favourite. And in West Virginia, one of the country's Trumpiest states, his preferred candidate is locked in a bruising race that pits two House members against each other.

Trump's backing is still the most coveted in Republican politics, and his outpost at Mar-a-Lago in Florida sees a constant flow of candidates pitching themselves and pledging loyalty.

"The complete and total failure of the Democrat 'leadership' has created a demand for the immediate return to the America First agenda Trump championed," said Taylor Budowich, a spokesman for Trump. "The democratic process has never before seen the kind of power that Trump's endorsement has heading into the primary season."

Perhaps no state embodies the risky gambit that Trump is undertaking to reorient the Republican Party around his false 2020 fraud claims than Georgia, where he will rally support on Saturday for former senator David Perdue against Kemp. Trump has loudly feuded with the governor over his decision to certify the 2020 election.

Polls have shown Kemp maintaining a lead despite Trump's endorsement of Perdue and appearance in television commercials. In recent days, Trump also backed challengers to the Kemp-aligned attorney general and insurance commissioner after previously wading into the contests for Georgia's secretary of state and lieutenant governor.

"I think Trump has overextended himself in Georgia," said Erick Erickson, a conservative radio host in Georgia. "Many of these candidates won't have the budget to get that information out there, and Trump doesn't seem to be throwing big money their way."

Alyssa Farah Griffin, a former Trump aide who has since become a critic, said the success of Trump's endorsements in 2022 would directly impact the next presidential campaign.

"It does bear on 2024," she said, "because Republicans are going to see who the biggest power broker is."