Hoping to avert nuclear crisis, US seeks informal agreement with Iran

WASHINGTON – The Biden administration has been negotiating quietly with Iran to

limit the country’s nuclear programme

and free imprisoned Americans, according to officials from three countries, in part of a larger United States effort to ease tensions and reduce the risk of a military confrontation with the Islamic Republic.

The US goal is to reach an informal, unwritten agreement, which some Iranian officials are calling a “political ceasefire”.

It would aim to prevent a further escalation in a long-hostile relationship that has grown even more fraught as Iran builds up a stockpile of highly enriched uranium close to bomb-grade purity, supplies Russia with drones for use in Ukraine and brutally cracks down on domestic political protests.

The broad outlines of the talks were confirmed by three senior Israeli officials, an Iranian official and a US official. US officials would not discuss efforts to win the release of prisoners, beyond calling it an urgent priority.

The indirect talks, some occurring this spring in the Gulf Arab state of Oman, reflect a resumption of diplomacy between the US and Iran after the collapse of more than a year of negotiations to restore the 2015 nuclear deal. That agreement sharply limited Iran’s activities in exchange for sanctions relief.

Iran accelerated its nuclear programme months after former US president Donald Trump withdrew from the deal and imposed a slew of new sanctions on the country in 2018.

Iran would agree under a new pact – which two Israeli officials called “imminent” – not to enrich uranium beyond its current production level of 60 per cent purity. That is close to but short of the 90 per cent purity needed to fashion a nuclear weapon, a level the US has warned would force a severe response.

Iran would also halt lethal attacks on US contractors in Syria and Iraq by its proxies in the region, expand its cooperation with international nuclear inspectors, and refrain from selling ballistic missiles to Russia, Iranian officials said.

In return, Iran would expect the US to avoid tightening sanctions already choking its economy; to not seize oil-bearing foreign tankers, as it most recently did in April; and to not seek new punitive resolutions at the United Nations or International Atomic Energy Agency against Iran for its nuclear activity.

“None of this is aimed at reaching a ground-breaking agreement,” said Mr Ali Vaez, Iran director for the International Crisis Group, a conflict-prevention organisation. The goal, he said, is to “put a lid on any activity that basically crosses a red line or puts either party in a position to retaliate in a way that destabilises the status quo”.

“The objective is to stabilise the tensions, to create time and space to discuss the future diplomacy and the nuclear deal,” he said.

Iran also expects the US to unfreeze billions of dollars in Iranian assets, whose use would be limited to humanitarian purposes, in exchange for the release of three Iranian American prisoners the US calls wrongfully detained.

US officials have not confirmed such a link between the prisoners and the money, or any connection between prisoners and nuclear matters.

In what could be a sign of a developing agreement, the US issued a waiver last week allowing Iraq to pay US$2.76 billion (S$3.7 billion) in energy debts to Iran. The money would be restricted to use by US-approved third-party vendors for food and medicine for Iranian citizens, said the State Department.

That could allay concerns that the Biden administration is placing billions in the hands of a ruthless regime that is killing protesters, supporting Russia’s Ukraine war effort, and funding anti-Israeli proxies like Hamas and Hizbollah. Republicans hammered the Obama administration for releasing billions in frozen Iranian cash, which they said enabled the subsidy of terrorist activities.

Iranian officials are also trying to claim about US$7 billion worth of oil purchase payments held in South Korea that they have linked to the release of US prisoners. That money, too, would be restricted for humanitarian use and held in a Qatari bank, said an Iranian official and several other sources familiar with the negotiations.

The renewed US focus on Iran’s nuclear programme comes amid growing concern in the Biden administration that Iran could precipitate a crisis by further increasing its uranium enrichment.

“The US seems to be making clear to Iran that if you go to 90 per cent, you’re going to pay a hell of a price,” said Mr Dennis Ross, who helped craft Middle East policy for several US presidents.

Mr Ross spoke from Israel, where he had been meeting security officials familiar with the recent talks.

At the same time, Mr Ross said, the Biden administration has no appetite for a new crisis. “They want the priority and focus to remain on Ukraine and Russia,” he said. “Having a war in the Mideast, where you know how it starts, but you don’t know how it ends, that’s the last thing they want.”

At a news briefing on Wednesday, State Department spokesman Matt Miller said “rumours about a nuclear deal – interim or otherwise – are false or misleading”.

“Our No. 1 policy is ensuring that Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon, so of course we’ve been watching Iran’s nuclear enrichment activities,” he said. “We believe diplomacy is the best path to help achieve that, but we are preparing for all possible options and contingencies.”

The US denial of a pending “nuclear deal” could hinge on semantics, however, if it amounts to the informal understanding described by multiple officials. Such an understanding would also avoid the need for approval from a US Congress deeply hostile to Iran.

In an unexpected rhetorical shift, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said on Wednesday he could endorse an agreement with the West if Iran’s nuclear infrastructure was kept intact, said state media reports.

Mr Khamenei also said Iran should maintain at least some cooperation with international nuclear inspectors.

Israel has warned that Iran could suffer dire consequences from producing bomb-worthy uranium. “If Iran enriches to the 90 per cent weaponised level, it would be a great error and the price would be heavy,” Israel’s Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said in May.

Even if Iran were to use its high-speed centrifuges to purify uranium to a level suitable for making a nuclear weapon, it would still take time to construct such a bomb. In March, the chair of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, told a House sub-committee it could take “several months”.

“The United States military has developed multiple options for our national leadership to consider, if or when Iran decides to develop a nuclear weapon,” Gen Milley said.

A senior Israeli defence official said Israel estimates it would take Iran much longer – at least one year and perhaps more than two years – to fashion a bomb and said Gen Milley’s comments reflect a US effort to convey the urgency of striking a new agreement with Iran as soon as possible.

Iran has long insisted its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes despite evidence that it has researched nuclear military capabilities.

In a statement to The New York Times, Iran’s mission to the UN declined to address details of the talks but said “it is important to create a new atmosphere and move forward from the current situation”.

The renewed talks have troubled some Israeli officials, who worry that the implementation of new understandings could reduce Western economic pressure on Iran and even lead to a broader nuclear agreement that could throw a lifeline to Iran’s economy without sufficiently derailing its nuclear activities. NYTIMES