Global nuclear missile, bomb market to surpass $171b in 10 years: Report

PORTLAND • The global market for nuclear missiles and bombs should surpass US$126 billion (S$171 billion) within 10 years, up nearly 73 per cent from 2020 levels, according to a report by Allied Market Research yesterday, as Russian aggression in Ukraine spurs military spending.

The value of the market would jump 72.6 per cent from the Portland-based research firm's estimate of nearly US$73 billion in 2020, when Covid-19 delays and reallocation of funds to support the health crisis "severely affected" the defence sector.

An increase in geopolitical conflicts and bigger military budgets would likely push the figure up at an annual compounded rate of 5.4 per cent until 2030, the report said.

US President Joe Biden last week requested a record peacetime national defence budget, which would prioritise modernising its nuclear "triad" of ballistic missile submarines, bombers and land-based missiles.

The report predicted that demand for small nuclear warheads, which can be easily deployed through aircraft and land-based missiles, would fuel faster growth in these segments, although submarine-launched ballistic missiles accounted for a quarter of the market in 2020.

"By type, the submarine-launched ballistic missile segment dominated the global nuclear bombs and missiles market in 2020, in terms of revenue, and is expected to lead the market throughout the forecast period," lead aerospace and defence analyst at Allied Market Research Dhvanil Dave said.

"At present, North America is the highest revenue contributor and is expected to garner the highest revenue in the global market during the forecast period, followed by Europe, Asia-Pacific, and LAMEA," he said. LAMEA refers to Latin America, the Middle East and Africa.

While North America dominated more than half the global market in 2020, the report predicted the fastest growth would come from the Asia-Pacific region on initiatives by India, Pakistan and China to bolster their nuclear arsenals.

It predicted, however, that the rising influence of non-nuclear proliferation treaties and national efforts should increase the number of warheads in storage or awaiting dismantlement.

But active weapons accounted for the "lion's share" - more than two-thirds - of the market in 2020, it said, due to investment in nuclear arsenals and new warhead purchases.

Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States at the start of the year issued a joint statement saying that there could be no winners in a nuclear war and it must be avoided.

REUTERS