Fearful or cheerful? World leaders mull over a potential Trump foreign policy

BERLIN – They promised a harder line against China.

They assailed US President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from Afghanistan.

They attributed the conflicts in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip to America’s weakness, pledged a crackdown on immigrants living in the country without legal permission, and vowed to end “free rides” for US allies.

The line-up of speakers at the Republican National Convention on July 17 sketched out a vision for US foreign policy that leans harder into former president Donald Trump’s populist and isolationist instincts and further jettisons long-held Republican views.

The rest of the world was watching.

For months, officials around the globe have weighed the possibility of Trump’s return to the White House.

In Buenos Aires, Argentina; Riyadh, Saudi Arabia; and Budapest, Hungary, leaders could be expected to welcome it.

In London; Seoul, South Korea; and Berlin, it would likely further test faith in America’s dependability.

And in Mexico City; Kyiv, Ukraine; and Beijing, leaders appear to be steeling themselves for potential upheaval and further ruptures.

Already, with Trump consistently polling ahead of Mr Biden, some governments are taking concrete steps to prepare for the former president’s possible return.

South Korea is racing to finalise a deal with Washington on sharing the costs of keeping US troops in the country, anticipating Trump will demand that Seoul pay more. Mexico is studying how to protect millions of its citizens who might be deported from the US.

In Ukraine, leaders are trying to remain as neutral as possible in the US presidential campaign while also shoring up support from other Western allies.

Europe put on a show of solidarity at a summit of more than 40 European leaders on July 18, hosted by new British Prime Minister Keir Starmer at a palace outside Oxford. There, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said that Russia had “failed to create division in Europe” and appealed for more air defences and fewer restrictions on Western weapons.

Mr Zelensky’s government is simultaneously trying to build bridges with Trump’s camp. “If Mr Donald Trump becomes president, then we will work with him,” Mr Zelensky said in Kyiv on July 15. “I am not afraid of it.”

Trump’s allies overseas are feeling more confident about their global influence. Mr Viktor Orban, the prime minister of Hungary and Trump’s staunchest ally in Europe, shuttled to Kyiv, Moscow, Beijing and Washington in recent weeks, fashioning himself as a self-appointed global diplomat on the war in Ukraine. He concluded his travels with an audience with Trump at Mar-a-Lago in Florida.

And those from nations who have faced Trump’s attacks are already on the defensive.

President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of Mexico criticised the Republican convention speakers for blaming America’s problems on Latin American migrants. He noted on July 17 that American officials were ignoring the serious problem of drug use among young people.

“Let them look for an answer to that instead of only looking towards the south,” he said.

The speakers at the Republican National Convention on July 17 emphasised America’s support for Israel but made little mention of Ukraine, an issue that has divided the party. That mixed approach mirrored the party platform released earlier in July, in which Republicans backed Israel by name but omitted the words “democracy” or “Ukraine”.

Mr Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, angered Trump by congratulating Mr Biden after the presidential election in 2020 – a move that Trump considered disloyal and strained their relationship.

But the pair had strong ties during the first Trump presidency, and the possibility of Trump’s return was expected to benefit Mr Netanyahu’s right-wing government, particularly if the war in the Gaza Strip were to extend into 2025.

During his first term, Trump moved the US Embassy to Jerusalem and was an architect of the landmark deals that forged formal diplomatic ties between Israel and three Arab states. If he wins, he is expected to press ahead with Mr Biden’s efforts to forge a similar arrangement between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Unpredictability

Across the spectrum, foreign analysts and officials have underscored the unpredictability that defined Trump’s first term. Some nations point out that Trump does not always follow through on his public threats.

“He may say something publicly and act differently when he’s in power,” said Mr Sergiy Solodkyy, the first deputy director of the New Europe Centre, a think-tank in Ukraine.

Trump, for example, muted his opposition to US aid to Ukraine earlier in 2024, enabling some Republican members of Congress to vote in favour of the military package after months of stalling, Mr Solodkyy said.

“Trump is a politician who can change his mind,” he added.

The unpredictability cuts both ways. In Moscow, Russian officials rejoiced when Trump won the presidency, only to find an administration packed with hawkish, anti-Russia Republicans, who pushed through new rounds of Russian sanctions, lethal aid to Ukraine and withdrawals from arms control pacts, at times over Trump’s protests.

President Vladimir Putin of Russia said earlier in 2024 that he would prefer a victory for Mr Biden, citing the President’s experience and predictable behaviour. But some analysts who follow the Kremlin suggested an ulterior motive in Mr Putin’s comments, with the Russian leader knowing that his endorsement would hurt any candidate among American voters.

Global leaders needed to look no further than

Trump’s choice of a running mate, Ohio Senator J.D. Vance,

to see how foreign policy in Trump’s second term might shift.

Mr Vance has positioned himself as the standard-bearer of a fully Trump-aligned foreign policy, in contrast to the more traditional GOP positions held by Trump’s earlier running mate, Mr Mike Pence.

Mr Vance led the charge against additional aid to Ukraine in the Senate early in 2024, and pro-Kremlin commentators in Moscow embraced his nomination this week as Trump’s running mate.

During a speech at the convention on July 17, Mr Vance warned US military allies that there would be “no more free rides.” And he took aim at China, vowing to “stop the Chinese Communist Party from building their middle class on the backs of our hard-working citizens”.

Mr Vance supports strong US backing for Taiwan, but Trump himself has expressed scepticism about the semiautonomous Chinese territory’s effort to defend itself. He has also accused Taiwan of luring semiconductor production away from the US.

Foreign policy experts in China expect a possible second Trump administration to look much like the first, with friction increasing between Beijing and Washington, particularly on economic issues. But the Biden administration has also taken a hawkish stance on China.

Personality-driven policy

Even as they assess Republican ideology, analysts in Asia have noted the significance of the former president’s outsize personality.

During Trump’s presidency, Mr Shinzo Abe, then the prime minister of Japan, was particularly adept at developing a close personal relationship with the American leader. Mr Abe, who was assassinated in 2022, figured out how to flatter Trump to sidestep direct confrontations over demands that Japan pay more for defence.

“There will almost be a playbook on how to deal with Trump and a lot to learn from Abe’s successes – that really, sycophancy works,” said Professor James D.J. Brown, a professor of political science at the Tokyo campus of Temple University.

Across the globe, that approach is already under way.

In the United Arab Emirates, pro-government pundits and businesspeople have been open in their praise for Trump recently.

Saudi Arabia would also likely welcome Trump’s return. Two weeks ago, the Trump Organisation signed a deal with a real estate company in Saudi Arabia to build a residential high-rise tower there, extending the family’s close ties with the kingdom.

Renewed tension in Latin America

Although Argentina’s right-wing president, Mr Javier Milei, has told Trump personally that he wants him to win, elsewhere in Latin America, diplomatic turmoil is expected, with leftist governments in Mexico, Brazil and Colombia poised to disagree with Trump’s policies.

Mexico is preparing to offer alternatives to the kinds of harsh border measures Republicans have promised to introduce, including “Remain in Mexico”, a policy that requires migrants to wait in the country in tent encampments along the border while they apply for asylum in the US.

In Brazil, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has repeatedly criticised Trump publicly and supported Mr Biden, expressing an affinity for the US President after the two men found common ground on their shared experiences as the targets of far-right election deniers. Yet despite that friendship, Mr Lula has criticised US foreign policy, including on Ukraine, Israel and Venezuela.

Analysts believe that a Trump presidency would likely push Brazil away from the US and closer to China, at least under Mr Lula. They predict a similar dynamic in Colombia, one of Washington’s most important allies, which has a leftist president for the first time, known for being a prolific communicator on social media. NYTIMES