European diplomats fear crisis in Cuba as Trump amps up pressure

HAVANA – Cuba faces a possible humanitarian crisis and a chaotic collapse of its government as US President Donald Trump

threatens to starve the communist-run island of critical fuel and financing

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Diplomats in Havana, who asked to remain anonymous for fear of retaliation, described what they are seeing on the ground as a festering energy crisis that risks becoming so severe that ports could grind to a halt, sparking a dire food shortage. 

According to the assessments, seen by Bloomberg, the country is on the verge of a catastrophe it is ill-equipped to handle – one that the diplomats said could plausibly trigger the downfall of Cuba’s government.

The reports by European diplomats raised the prospect that Cuba could be the next domino to fall after the Trump administration’s capture of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro. Cubans are ready for a change of government, the diplomats said. 

Even before US special forces whisked away Maduro, power cuts across the country were already affecting water delivery, trash collection and the medical system.

Mr Trump said shortly after the Jan 3 raid in Caracas that the regime in Havana might soon “fall of its own volition”. But on Jan 11, the US President signalled he would tighten the screws on Cuba even further.

“THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA - ZERO!” Mr Trump said in a Truth Social post, urging the island’s leadership to “make a deal, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE.” He later told reporters aboard Air Force One that his administration was “talking to Cuba” and that those who fled the island for the US over the years would be “taken care of”.

Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel, in a series of posts on X, denied on Jan 12 that there were any ongoing talks between Havana and Washington, outside of coordinating immigration issues. 

“No one tells us what to do,” Mr Diaz-Canel said in a separate statement to state-run news outlet CubaDebate. “Cuba doesn’t hurt anyone; it’s been hurt by the United States for the last 66 years,” he added, referring to sweeping economic sanctions imposed on the island in 1960 after the revolution that brought the current government to power.

With the loss of support from Venezuela, which for years sent heavily subsidised oil in exchange for medical and security personnel, Mexico has become one of Cuba’s only remaining fuel suppliers. A tanker carrying up to 90,000 barrels of crude arrived over the weekend, stoking tension with the US. Mr Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum spoke on Jan 12, but she said her government’s support for Havana was not discussed.

Washington will allow Mexico to continue its oil shipments to Cuba for now, CBS News reported on Jan 12, citing Mr Trump’s energy secretary and another US official it did not name.

Cuba is facing its worst economic crisis since the fall of the Soviet Union, with hunger and blackouts on the rise. Should the government collapse, there are fears it could lead to an exodus of migrants. 

With the traditional route to Miami now largely shut down under Mr Trump, small nations throughout the Caribbean are worried they might be flooded. In particular, the Cayman Islands and Turks and Caicos are concerned that a large number of Cubans could overwhelm their ability to accommodate them, the diplomats said. 

Local discontent with the Cuban government has been running high for years. And the continued economic decline is only expected to raise anger and the potential for protests in a country where public demonstrations remain illegal.

The Central Intelligence Agency has also painted a grim picture of Cuba’s situation. But the US spy agency’s most recent assessment was inconclusive on whether the government would fall as a result, Reuters reported on Jan 10, citing sources it did not name. BLOOMBERG