Covid-19 cases starting drop in some US states where Omicron hit later
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A Covid-19 testing site run by the county health department in Salt Lake City, Utah, on Jan 12, 2022.
PHOTO: NYTIMES
NEW YORK (NYTIMES) - States where the Omicron variant began skyrocketing in late December - weeks after setting off spikes in states like New York - appear to be turning a corner, with new infections starting to decline.
If that trend holds, it would be an encouraging sign that the United States may be through the worst of the Omicron wave.
In Arizona, the seven-day average of daily cases fell from a peak of 20,778 on Monday to 18,208 on Friday, a roughly 12 per cent decrease over five days, according to a New York Times database.
Cases in Utah have declined 35 per cent and in Mississippi 25 per cent since peaking Jan 19.
Cases in North Dakota have fallen 19 per cent since a Jan 22 peak.
While these states are early in their downswings, they appear so far to be following a similar trend to states where the Omicron surge began earlier.
Those states in turn have been following a similar pattern to South Africa, where the variant was identified in November and where case averages have plummeted 87 per cent from a mid-December peak.
But national case numbers, while falling 31 per cent in the past two weeks, are still astronomical.
The average remains around 590,000 a day - more than double the worst statistics from last winter.
Hospitalisations, which lag cases, appear to be peaking and are likewise higher than last winter's peak.
Deaths, which lag more, are still increasing and have also passed last winter's peak in some places, although not nationally.
Even in New York and New Jersey, which are further ahead on the curve than many states and have seen the seven-day case average fall more than 70 per cent, the average is still higher than the peak of last winter's wave.
And in some states, like Alaska and Washington, cases are still rising.
Last weekend, Dr Anthony Fauci, the country's top infectious disease expert, told ABC News that he believed the wave would crest in the remaining states by the end of February. What comes after that is much less clear.
New variants could develop, given that vast areas of the world are still largely unvaccinated. The immunity granted by vaccines - or by recovery from Omicron - might or might not hold up against those new variants.
