WASHINGTON • Most former presidents spend their time out of office playing golf, getting their libraries in order, making well-paid speeches, writing lucrative memoirs and biting their tongues about what the next guy is doing.

Other than the golf, the road ahead for Mr Donald Trump, a president who has never adhered to his office's norms, will be unlike any other.

We know where he will not be when his term ends at noon today - he is the first president since Andrew Johnson in 1869 to decline to attend his successor's inauguration.

But there is no clear answer yet on what he plans to do next. Even where he plans to live is potentially up in the air - though Mr Trump says he is moving to his Mar-a-Lago private club.

In the near term and possibly longer, Mr Trump's post-presidential options will be circumscribed by the fallout over his Jan 6 speech egging on the crowd that would go on to storm the US Capitol.

For now, some of Corporate America's biggest names are shunning the businessman president, "de-platforming" him on social media and cutting him off from certain professional and financial services. Tens of millions of his fellow citizens will continue to revile him, rendering the Trump brand toxic to half the country and harming prospects for his real estate, hotel and golf resort empire.

But tens of millions of other Americans are likely to form a durable base of support, making Mr Trump a political force for years to come regardless of whether he seeks the presidency again.

Deprived of his Twitter megaphone and other online platforms, the former president will have to think of new ways to mobilise his loyal followers.

Though Mr Trump will likely be frozen out of mainstream media opportunities, he could launch endeavours focused on his conservative base, perhaps a Trump network to go head to head with Fox News or a Trump social media site to compete with Twitter.

Of course, that is assuming he is not completely consumed by court battles once he leaves office.

Even before the Capitol riot, he faced several lawsuits and potential criminal investigations. His wild election-fraud claims and possible incitement of the riot have only added to his legal risk. There is a very real possibility that he could wind up in jail.

It is probably not wise to count out Mr Trump though.

Widely dismissed after his 1990s Atlantic City casino bankruptcies, he came back strongly a decade later on The Apprentice.

Then, when his ratings began to wane, he latched on to the racist birther conspiracy about his predecessor Barack Obama and built a new, right-wing audience that ultimately carried him into the White House. Even his defeat by President-elect Joe Biden was by a much narrower margin than predicted.

Before the Capitol riot, it looked like Mr Trump would remain the Republican Party standard-bearer, either running for president himself again in 2024 or acting as kingmaker in the GOP field.

But some believe Jan 6 changed all that.

"When the Trump presidency is discussed in the near, medium and long term by anyone, all conversations will begin and end with the day of insurrection," said Republican strategist Scott Jennings.

The riot has certainly exposed a rift in the GOP. Republican House Conference chair Liz Cheney was one of 10 members who crossed party lines and joined Democrats in impeaching Mr Trump for inciting insurrection. Several Republican senators have suggested they are open to convicting Mr Trump, which would effectively end his 2024 run before it begins.

Recent polls, however, have shown that most Republican voters still support Mr Trump and do not blame him for the Capitol riot.

"That doesn't go away overnight," Mr Kevin Madden, a senior adviser to Senator Mitt Romney's 2012 presidential campaign, said of Mr Trump's popularity with the Republican base.

"That power that he has, that connection with the most active voices inside his movement, is very real and it still exists."

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