China's push to grow influence poses top threat to US: Report
US intelligence agencies warn of security challenges, intensifying battles for power
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Chinese and American officials at the opening session of Sino-US talks in Alaska last month. A major US intelligence report published on Tuesday suggests that so-called grey-zone battles for power - which are meant to fall short of inciting all-out war - will intensify with intelligence operations, cyber attacks and global drives for influence.
PHOTO: AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
WASHINGTON • China's effort to expand its growing influence represents one of the largest threats to the United States, according to a major annual intelligence report, which also warned of the broad national security challenges posed by Moscow and Beijing.
The report published on Tuesday does not predict a military confrontation with either Russia or China, but it suggests that so-called grey-zone battles for power - which are meant to fall short of inciting all-out war - will intensify with intelligence operations, cyber attacks and global drives for influence.
The assessment by US intelligence agencies highlights the opportunities and challenges for the Biden administration.
While much of the report describes traditional national security challenges, it also gives far more attention to climate change and global health than previous threat assessments have done.
That shift reflects a pledge by the Biden administration's top intelligence officials to focus more on such non-traditional challenges.
The report puts China's push for "global power" first on the list of threats, followed by Russia, Iran and North Korea.
There are typically few broad revelations in the annual reports, which are a collection of declassified assessments, although the intelligence agencies' ranking of threats and how they change over time can be telling.
"China increasingly is a near-peer competitor, challenging the United States in multiple arenas - especially economically, militarily and technologically - and is pushing to change global norms," the report said.
China's strategy, according to the report, is to drive wedges between the US and its allies.
Beijing has also used its success in combating the coronavirus pandemic to promote the "superiority of its system".
The report predicts more tensions in the South China Sea, as Beijing continues to intimidate rivals in the region.
It also predicts that China will press the government of Taiwan to move forward with unification and criticise efforts by the US to bolster engagement with Taipei.
But the report stopped short of predicting any kind of direct military conflict.
"We expect that friction will grow as Beijing steps up attempts to portray Taipei as internationally isolated and dependent on the mainland for economic prosperity, and as China continues to increase military activity around the island," the report said.
It also foresees China at least doubling its nuclear stockpile over the next decade.
"Beijing is not interested in arms control agreements that restrict its modernisation plans and will not agree to substantive negotiations that lock in (the) US or Russian nuclear advantage."
The country also represents a growing threat of cyber attacks against the US, and the intelligence agencies assess that Beijing "at a minimum, can cause localised, temporary disruptions to critical infrastructure within the United States".
There are few surprises in the report's assessment of Russia.
It makes clear that although many view Moscow as a declining power, American spy agencies still consider it a pre-eminent threat, pointing to the Russian supply chain hacking that created vulnerabilities in some 18,000 computer networks worldwide.
The assessment said that while Russia would avoid direct conflict with the US, it would use influence campaigns, mercenary operations and military exercises to advance its interests and undermine those of its rival.
US President Joe Biden spoke to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Tuesday. During their conversation, Mr Biden raised the prospect of a summit with Mr Putin and pressed him on the recent build-up of Russian troops on Ukraine's border and in Crimea.
The report said that Russia would seek opportunities for pragmatic cooperation, but that it would also press the US not to interfere in the domestic concerns of Ukraine and other countries of the former Soviet Union.
While cyber threats have traditionally been a separate section of the report, this year's assessment made more of an effort to weave such attacks into the broader threat picture, examining both China and Russia's record of intrusions against the US.
This year's report offers a far more robust discussion of the national security implications of climate change, whose threats, for the most part, are long term, but can also have short-term consequences, the report said.
Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, Central Intelligence Agency director William Burns and other top intelligence officials were to testify about the report yesterday and today.
NYTIMES
