Biden's so-called gaffe on Taiwan may hint at his own inclination

WASHINGTON • There is an old saying in politics that a gaffe is when a politician says what he or she really means. And critics of US President Joe Biden say he has made his fair share when it comes to Taiwan.

On Monday, during his first trip to Asia as President, Mr Biden said the United States would get involved militarily should China attack democratic Taiwan, seeming to break with a long-held policy of not making clear how Washington might react.

For the US commander-in-chief, it was the latest in a series of apparently off-the-cuff assertions that suggest his personal inclination is to defend the Chinese-claimed island.

But even some who favour jettisoning Washington's policy of "strategic ambiguity" over Taiwan have criticised the President, arguing that his muddying of the issue risks accelerating China's desire to act, without carrying the muscle of a formal security guarantee.

Other policy analysts though, such as Mr David Sacks of the Council on Foreign Relations, said that Mr Biden's extensive foreign policy experience and the context in which he made the remarks - next to Japan's Prime Minister and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine - suggested he did not misspeak. "I believe that this was not a gaffe," he said.

However, the White House and Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin were quick to say that there was no change to the US position after Mr Biden answered "yes" to a reporter who questioned him on whether the US would get involved militarily in the event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan.

Analysts say repeated similar comments earlier in his administration now collectively show Mr Biden's personal inclination would be to order some sort of intervention.

"He's clear in his conviction that the US should respond to Chinese military aggression against Taiwan. He's ambiguous about what exactly that means and what commitment the US has made to Taiwan's defence," said Mr Daniel Russel, the top US diplomat for East Asia during the Obama administration.

Taiwan's Foreign Ministry thanked Mr Biden for his support, but China's Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin responded to his remarks by saying that Beijing has no room for compromise or concessions on matters relating to its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Mr Biden has left himself considerable wiggle room, particularly on the question of whether so-called military involvement would mean sending American troops into battle.

The White House National Security Council and the State Department did not respond to Reuters' questions on that issue.

The Biden administration has repeatedly invoked Russia's invasion of Ukraine - to which the US has been funnelling billions of dollars in military support - and signalled that China should not consider a similar move on Taiwan.

But wary of triggering conflict with nuclear-armed Russia, the US government has been clear that its support to Ukraine does not constitute direct military involvement, even if it has involved supplying large quantities of lethal weaponry.

While Mr Biden's remark may assuage some concerns about American security partnerships given his administration's refusal to risk an outright war with Russia, it could also raise regional concerns about the threat of a US-China confrontation.

"I don't see this as helping keep the region calm and Taiwan safe," said Mr Douglas Paal, a former unofficial US envoy to Taiwan.

Despite the Biden administration's insistence that it is not straying from a long-held "one-China" policy, which gives official diplomatic recognition to Beijing, not Taipei, the tone from both Beijing and Washington towards Taiwan has shifted.

Once uncommon sorties by China's air force into Taiwan's Air Defence Identification Zone have dramatically increased in recent years, and Beijing has heightened harsh rhetoric against Taipei.

Meanwhile, the US government has stepped up engagement with Taiwan, continued arms sales to the island and, earlier this month, the State Department quietly updated its webpage describing unofficial ties to Taiwan, removing references to China's position.

Republicans have criticised the repeated apparent haphazard nature of Mr Biden's remarks.

Senior research fellow Dean Cheng at the conservative Heritage Foundation said that if Washington were to abandon ambiguity towards Taiwan, it would best be done quickly.

"This creates the potential for a ticking clock in Beijing," he said of Mr Biden's statements on Taiwan. "If the Americans are slowly shifting towards strategic clarity, China might want to take action before they've made that declaration."

REUTERS