Biden v Trump would be a close rematch, with RFK Jr a threat to Biden: Poll

WASHINGTON – A looming election rematch in 2024 between US President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump would be closely fought, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll found, with both candidates saddled with profound vulnerabilities that could cost them the White House.

Mr Biden, an 81-year-old Democrat, continues to be plagued by

voters’ doubts about the strength of the economy,

as well as concerns about the security of the US-Mexico border and worries about crime.

Trump, 77, faces his own worries, including four criminal trials on

a bevy of charges

related to his attempts to overturn the 2020 presidential election and his handling of classified documents. A conviction prior to the Nov 5, 2024, election could cost him significant support, the poll found.

The poll showed Trump with a marginal two-point lead in a head-to-head matchup – 38 per cent to 36 per cent – with 26 per cent of respondents saying they were not sure or might vote for someone else.

The poll, conducted online on Dec 5 to 11, surveyed 4,411 American adults nationwide and had a credibility interval, a measure of precision, of about 2 percentage points.

Trump is

the frontrunner for the Republican nomination by a wide margin,

the poll showed.

Overall, the poll showed deep apathy among many voters at a potential Biden-Trump rematch. About six in 10 respondents said they were not satisfied with America’s two-party system and want a third choice.

RFK Jr factor

They may have one, in the form of anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr, who has launched an independent bid. The poll showed that Mr Kennedy, part of the storied political family, could draw more support from Mr Biden than Trump.

Trump’s lead widened to a five-point advantage when respondents were given an option to vote for Mr Kennedy.

Some 16 per cent of respondents picked Mr Kennedy when given the option, while Trump had 36 per cent support, compared with 31 per cent for Mr Biden.

Mr Kennedy, whose uncle John F. Kennedy served as president and whose father, Robert, was a senator and attorney-general, faces a challenge to amass enough signatures to get on the ballot on all 50 states.

Last week, a super PAC fundraising committee backing Mr Kennedy’s bid said it would spend up to US$15 million (S$20 million) to get him on the ballot in 10 states as a starting measure.

Third-party candidates have affected the outcome of US elections even without winning. In 1992, a strong showing by libertarian Ross Perot helped put Democrats Bill Clinton in the White House and, in 2000, some Democrats blamed consumer activist Ralph Nader’s bid for contributing to Mr Al Gore’s loss to Republican George W. Bush.

The state-by-state Electoral College system used to pick presidents, and deep-seated partisan divides, mean that voters in just a handful of states will play a decisive role in the election’s outcome.

In the seven states where the election was closest in 2020 – Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Michigan – Mr Biden had a four-point lead among Americans who said they were sure to vote.

Other polls have shown that some voters are concerned about

Mr Biden’s advanced age.

He would be the oldest president ever elected to a second term.

But his candidacy likely will be buttressed by the public’s continued support of abortion rights, as well as his advocacy for gun control, climate-change measures and higher taxes on the ultra-rich, the new poll showed.

The survey also highlighted the significant risks to Trump’s campaign as he faces a series of criminal trials in 2024. Some 31 per cent of Republican respondents said they would not vote for Trump if he is convicted of a felony crime by a jury. He has denied any criminal wrongdoing.

Some 45 per cent of respondents said Trump was the better candidate for handling the economy, compared with 33 per cent who picked Mr Biden.

Mr Biden, however, had a similar advantage on the issue of abortion, with 44 per cent of respondents saying he is the better candidate for abortion access, compared to 29 per cent who picked Trump.

Some of Trump’s strength also appeared tied to concerns by some voters about crime and immigration. Asked which candidate was better on the issues, 42 per cent picked Trump on crime, compared with 32 per cent who selected Mr Biden.

Fifty-four per cent of respondents agreed with a statement that “immigration is making life harder for native-born Americans”, with a similar share saying Trump was the better candidate for the issue. REUTERS