WASHINGTON – If he was watching from the White House, President Joe Biden might have winced last week when Speaker Nancy Pelosi declared in her speech on the House floor that “the hour has come for a new generation to lead”.

Fortunately for him, she made sure to then add “the Democratic caucus”, a caveat he no doubt appreciated.

Although Mr Biden turned 80 years old on Sunday, he has made no plans to call attention to the milestone, much less to step down, celebrating only with a private family brunch.

But the confluence of his milestone birthday with the 82-year-old Ms Pelosi’s passing of the torch has inevitably renewed attention on the gerontocracy that has led both the Democratic and Republican parties for years and raised questions about when a new generation will come forth.

Over the last couple of years, the United States has been under the stewardship of the oldest leadership class in its history, with a president, House speaker, House majority leader, House majority whip, Senate president pro tempore, Senate majority leader, Senate majority whip and Senate minority leader all in their 70s or 80s.

The 117th Congress that will complete its term in January is the oldest the country has ever seen, with nearly one in four members over the age of 70.

Mr Biden, America’s oldest president and the first octogenarian in the Oval Office, has said he will officially announce his plans early in 2023, but he has indicated that he “intends” to run for reelection, which would make him 86 at the end of a second term if he were to win.

Former president Donald Trump, who kicked off a campaign last week to oust his successor, became the oldest man to assume the presidency when he was sworn in in 2017, until Mr Biden beat his record in 2021. Now 76, Mr Trump would be 82 at the end of his second term should he recapture the White House.

80 is the new 70

The ageing of the American political establishment is a testament to medical advances that have not only extended life expectancy but also made it possible for many to play productive roles in society long past what their parents and grandparents were able to do. Eighty is the new 70, as it were.

Some experts even put Mr Biden and Mr Trump in a category of “super agers” who maintain their abilities longer than their peers. But both men have faced questions about diminishing capacity, and polls have indicated that two-thirds of Americans do not want either to run again.

The current generation of leadership has held onto power so long that all but two of the major party nominees for president since 1996 (Mr Barack Obama and Mr John McCain) were born between 1942 and 1948, leaving younger cohorts itching for a chance to take the reins. Mr Bill Clinton, Mr George W. Bush and Mr Trump were all born within two months of each other in 1946.

Mr William H. Frey, a demographics scholar at the Brookings Institution, said Mr Biden and his contemporaries came of age during a time of change in the 1960s and 1970s, when civil rights and women’s rights were issues of great importance.

“While Trump and his compatriots are more politically popular with today’s Silent Generation voters, many of whom want to return to the 1950s, Mr Biden and other politicians of this generation have seen these shifts before and are able to understand the importance of facilitating these changes,” Dr Frey said.

The inevitable transition of power commenced in the House of Representatives last week with Ms Pelosi’s decision to step down as the leader of the House Democrats. Taking her place is likely to be Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York, who is 52, a full three decades younger than Ms Pelosi.

Moving on along with Ms Pelosi was Representative Steny Hoyer of Maryland, the 83-year-old majority leader. Representative James Clyburn of South Carolina, the 82-year-old whip, also appears likely to shift to a lower position.

If Representative Kevin McCarthy, the Republican leader from California, manages to win the speakership, at age 57, the next second-in-line to the presidency will drop in age by a quarter-century.

A spring chicken at 72

The shift coincided with the election of the first member of Generation Z to Congress: Mr Maxwell Frost, a 25-year-old Democrat from Florida who had to drive an Uber during his campaign to pay his bills and just meets the minimum age set by the Constitution to serve in the House.

“We know that Gen Z and millennials make up about a third of the country. We don’t represent anywhere near a third of government,” Mr Frost told PBS News after his victory. “And I think it’s important that we have young people at the table.”

But he was quick to add: “Look, I’m not one of these people that say we need to take out all the old folks and just have young people. It needs to be diverse, right, in age, in race, in gender, in economic status and experience. And this is just part of that bigger puzzle.”

In the Senate, the chamber often compared to a retirement home, where the average age has climbed to 56 from 47 since 1980, Senator Patrick Leahy, 82, the Vermont Democrat serving as president pro tempore, is retiring. The position, which is third in line to the presidency, would normally go to the next senior Democrat, Ms Dianne Feinstein of California, but at 89 she has visibly slipped and agreed to forgo the post. Instead, it will go to Senator Patty Murray, a spring chicken at 72.

Had the Republicans won, the job would have gone to Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa, who is 89 and intent on proving his durability, having tweeted out videos of himself doing pushups and going for a run during the most recent campaign.

Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the Democratic majority leader, is 71, while Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican minority leader, is 80.

As it happens, the US Supreme Court, often seen as a collection of elders, is having something of a youth movement. After several retirements and deaths, the four most recently confirmed justices are all in their 50s. But if history is a guide, they will hang out for a while. The average age a justice leaves the court is 81, and Justice Clarence Thomas, the senior member, is just 74.

Still the safest bet

Unsurprisingly, Mr Biden does not like talking much about the subject. “I can’t even say the age I’m going to be,” he told Mr Jonathan Capehart in a recent interview on MSNBC. “I can’t even get it out of my mouth.”

Mr Biden, who works out most days and has continued to ride his bike even as his gait has slowed and he has sometimes confused his words, has consistently said that it is “totally legitimate” to consider his age. But he insists he should be judged by his energy level and performance.

“Everything physically about me is still functioning well,” he told Mr Capehart. “And mentally too.”

Friends said the president remains vital, alert and active.

“Let me tell you something. He is so far beyond any 79-year-old I know,” said Mr Ted Kaufman, a former senator from Delaware and a longtime friend of Mr Biden who briefly filled his seat in the Senate.

While polls show many Democrats are eager to move to a candidate from a new generation, some remain convinced that Mr Biden is the safest bet to defeat Trump in 2024.

“He’ll be the last of the boomer generation to be around, and he has to stay, I think, because if Trump is their nominee, beating Trump becomes the most important thing that the party has to face and the country has to face,” said Mr Thomas J. Downey, a former representative of New York, who, like Mr Frost, was first elected to Congress at age 25, in his case in 1974 during another moment of generational change. “If that’s Joe Biden, then we can wait another four years.” NYTIMES