Biden shores up Democratic support, but faces tight race against Trump
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US President Joe Biden has been buoyed by voters' distaste for and fear of Donald Trump.
PHOTO: NYTIMES
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WASHINGTON – US President Joe Biden is heading into the 2024 presidential contest on firmer footing than a year ago, with his approval rating inching upwards and once-doubtful Democrats falling into line behind his re-election bid, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll.
Mr Biden appears to have escaped the political danger zone he resided in in 2022, when nearly two-thirds of his party wanted a different nominee. Now, Democrats have broadly accepted him as their standard-bearer, even if half would prefer someone else.
Still, warning signs abound for the President: despite his improved standing and a friendlier national environment, Mr Biden remains broadly unpopular among a voting public that is pessimistic about the country’s future, and his approval rating is a mere 39 per cent.
Perhaps most worryingly for Democrats, the poll found Mr Biden in a neck-and-neck race with former president Donald Trump, who held a commanding lead among likely Republican primary voters even as he faces two criminal indictments
Mr Biden has been buoyed by voters’ feelings of fear and distaste towards Trump. Well over a year before the election, 16 per cent of those polled had unfavourable views of both Mr Biden and Trump, a segment with which Mr Biden had a narrow lead.
“Donald Trump is not a Republican, he’s a criminal,” said Mr John Wittman, 42, a heating and air-conditioning contractor from Phoenix. A Republican, he said that even though he believed Mr Biden’s economic stewardship had hurt the country, “I will vote for anyone on the planet that seems halfway capable of doing the job, including Joe Biden, over Donald Trump”.
Satisfied but not enthusiastic
To borrow an old political cliche, the poll shows that Mr Biden’s support among Democrats is a mile wide and an inch deep.
About 30 per cent of voters who said they planned to vote for Mr Biden in November 2024 said they hoped Democrats would nominate someone else.
Just 20 per cent of Democrats said they would be enthusiastic if Mr Biden were the party’s 2024 presidential nominee; another 51 per cent said they would be satisfied but not enthusiastic.
A higher share of Democrats, 26 per cent, expressed enthusiasm for the notion of Vice-President Kamala Harris as the nominee in 2024.
Mr Biden had the backing of 64 per cent of Democrats who planned to participate in their party’s primary, an indicator of soft support for an incumbent president. Thirteen per cent preferred Mr Robert Kennedy Jr, and 10 per cent chose Ms Marianne Williamson.
Among Democratic poll respondents who have a record of voting in a primary, Mr Biden enjoyed a far wider lead – 74 per cent to 8 per cent. He was ahead by 92 per cent to 4 per cent among those who voted in a Democratic primary in 2022.
‘Lesser of two evils’
The lack of fervour about Mr Biden helps explain the relatively weak showing among small donors in a quarterly fund-raising report his campaign released two weeks ago.
A common view towards Mr Biden is illustrated in voters such as Ms Melody Marquess, 54, a retiree and left-leaning independent from Tyler, Texas.
Ms Marquess, who voted for Mr Biden in 2020 as “the lesser of two evils”, was not happy about his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, blaming him for inflation and a tight labour market. Still, she said she would again vote for Mr Biden, who is 80 years old, over Trump, who is 77.
“I’m sorry, but both of them, to me, are too old,” she said. “Joe Biden to me seems less mentally capable, age-wise. But Trump is just evil. He’s done horrible things.”
Mr Biden has recovered significantly from last summer. At the time, Democratic grumbling about his likely re-election bid had mounted, and a Times/Siena poll found that 64 per cent of Democrats said they did not want the party to renominate him – including 94 per cent of Democrats younger than 30.
Now, only half of all Democrats said they did not want Mr Biden to be the nominee in 2024.
The party’s enthusiasm about him began to tick up last autumn after the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v Wade, better-than-expected results in the midterm elections, a string of policy victories for Mr Biden and improvements in the economy as inflation slowed.
“Joe is Joe. He’s always kept his word. He’s done well for the country,” said Mr David Scoggin, 61, a retired police officer from Moulton, Alabama, who said he was enthusiastic about Mr Biden being the nominee in 2024. “If he had Congress and a Senate that would work with him, he could do a lot more.”
Historically poor
Deep pessimism persists, even among some Democrats who back Mr Biden. Among those who want to see Mr Biden as the party’s nominee in 2024, 14 per cent said the country’s problems were so bad that the nation was at risk of failing.
Despite that, Mr Biden is leading Trump among the same groups that helped solidify his victory in 2020: women, suburban voters, college-educated white voters and Black voters. But he seems to show early signs of potential vulnerability with Hispanic voters, who have shifted towards Republicans in recent elections.
Mr Biden’s approval rating of 39 per cent is historically poor for an incumbent president seeking re-election, but it has risen from 33 per cent last July.
The latest poll found that 23 per cent of registered voters thought the country was on the right track – a low number for Mr Biden, but better than the 13 per cent of Americans who believed the same a year ago.
More Americans than a year ago now think the economy is in excellent or good shape: 20 per cent, compared with 10 per cent in 2022.
Democrats who did not want Mr Biden to be the nominee last July were primarily focused on his age and job performance.
While Mr Biden’s age remains the leading point of discontent
Another 14 per cent said they would prefer someone new. NYTIMES
